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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


Typhoon Tip
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

we actually still touched 91 here ... 90 next door at KFIT despite the clouds.  It was a 'silently remarkable' day for warmth considering there was little direct sun or none some 70 or 80% of the time.  There's kind of a perhaps "bun worthy" eeriness when it's completely cloudy and 90 F, which at one moment yesterday that occurred here.  it's just weird -

anyway, we're probably a 1/2 hour if that away from verifying a heat wave in this part of the AFD

I did, too....but heat underperformed a bit from original expectations.

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Has anyone ever gone on a cruise this time of year...what are the odds of seeing distant lightning during the night? Really hoping to see some

culturally it's usually provincials that put all their eggs in that one thing, after they've fed a vacation jar 5 bucks and change a day for a year. Just for that one all-inclusive cruise-line deal.  ...I think  don't they have 'budget cruises' with neat and tidy packages for those that don't come along with fuck you money? 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

culturally it's usually provincials that put all their eggs in that one thing, after they've fed a vacation jar 5 bucks and change a day, just for that one cruise-line deal.  ...I think  don't they have 'budget cruises' with neat and tidy packages for those that don't come along with fuck you money? 

Not sure really...first time ever going and it was a gift from my girlfriends parents for her birthday this weekend. From my understanding though they aren't "terribly expensive"

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

we actually still touched 91 here ... 90 next door at KFIT despite the clouds.  It was a 'silently remarkable' day for warmth considering there was little direct sun or none some 70 or 80% of the time.  There's kind of a perhaps "bun worthy" eeriness when it's completely cloudy and 90 F, which at one moment yesterday that occurred here.  it's just weird -

anyway, we're probably a 1/2 hour if that away from verifying a heat wave in this part of the AFD

I was outside in the torrential tropical rains and noticed how it was still in the 80s while it was raining....not sure I really remember that happening around here, although I am sure it has....I thought it was impressive at least. High only reached 85 yesterday, almost 87 already with a dewpoint, 76....

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Tomorrow should be interesting too. Again, not a tremendous amount of forcing but the NAM/GFS have a nice little speed max at 500 developing across the region which contributes to ~30 knots of bulk shear. Residual outflow boundaries from today could be a focus for tomorrow. May have to watch for convection to blossom overnight tomorrow with some better forcing approaching and adequate jet streak across the region. 

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49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Has anyone ever gone on a cruise this time of year...what are the odds of seeing distant lightning during the night? Really hoping to see some

For my honeymoon, my wife and I went on a cruise in the caribbean and when pulling up to I think St Thomas, there was a random thunderstorm that produced a waterspout probably within a mile of the cruise ship.  I was able to catch in on my camcorder (2003).  It was awesome, but also a bit scary.  I need to find that video and watch it again.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Tomorrow should be interesting too. Again, not a tremendous amount of forcing but the NAM/GFS have a nice little speed max at 500 developing across the region which contributes to ~30 knots of bulk shear. Residual outflow boundaries from today could be a focus for tomorrow. May have to watch for convection to blossom overnight tomorrow with some better forcing approaching and adequate jet streak across the region. 

What time do things get started today?

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4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

What time do things get started today?

I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see some widely isolated stuff develop during the early afternoon but it's probably after 4-5 when we would really see stuff develop. The mesos are really all over the place so they probably won't be helpful today. My guess with this is because the forcing is on the weak side so it will be localized influences aiding in the development of convection (orographic, for example). Mesos do target along where the sea-breeze will be, but I think the degree of development along the boundary is underdone. In airmasses like today we tend to be active along it. 

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