July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[Go Kart Mozart]

50 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Possibly something @weatherwiz might be interested in.   I just had this video show up on my YouTube feed.  Not sure why.  
but a decent documentary on the 1995 Great Barrington MA tornado 

it just posted 5 days ago   Worth watching IMHO 

 

I drove through Monterey a few days later.  Amazing to see acres upon acres of trees snapped like matchsticks about 15' off the ground.

[40/70 Benchmark]

48.7 this AM....all just a dream soon enough-

[Typhoon Tip]

The present satellite loop over the panhandle of TX looks and behaves remarkably similar to a TUTT

[dendrite]

We microburst

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
411 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025


...NWS Damage Survey for 07/20/25 Thunderstorm Wind Event...

Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a slow moving cold front
Sunday. One storm developed west of the Lakes Region,
strengthening as it approached Danbury and Franklin, NH. The storm
collapsed near Sanbornton, producing a powerful wet microburst.
Observed wind damage in some pockets was consistent with estimated
wind speeds of 105 mph, resulting in over 500 downed trees in the area.

.Wet Microburst Wind Damage...

Peak Wind (estimated): 105 mph
Path Length /statute/:  2 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   .5 miles
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             07/20/25
Start Time:             504pm EDT
Start Location:         Sanbornton, NH
Start Lat/Lon:          43.5023 / -71.5852

End Date:               07/20/25
End Time:               510pm EDT
End Location:           Sanbornton, NH
End Lat/Lon:            49.4910 / -71.5502

Significant tree damage was located in Sanbornton, NH that was
consistent with a wet microburst. Numerous eye witnesses expressed
that the strongest winds occurred with the heaviest downpour.
Damage was variable in the downburst area with a general southeast
fall direction to the trees being observed. There where two distinct
pockets of damage that took hundreds of trees down, to include pine,
oak and maple. Trees where both uprooted and snapped. In addition,
hundreds of other trees where downed on the edges of the damage area,
but damage was more sporadic in nature. Some structral damage did
occur, but was mostly confined to sheds and shelter structures. A few
vehicles were also damaged due to trees falling on them. Additional
damage was likely further in the woods, but was not accessible for
the damage survey.  An estimated 500 trees were either snapped or blown
down in the damage area.

[mreaves]

53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The present satellite loop over the panhandle of TX looks and behaves remarkably similar to a TUTT

King Tutt?

[tunafish]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We microburst

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
411 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025


...NWS Damage Survey for 07/20/25 Thunderstorm Wind Event...

Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a slow moving cold front
Sunday. One storm developed west of the Lakes Region,
strengthening as it approached Danbury and Franklin, NH. The storm
collapsed near Sanbornton, producing a powerful wet microburst.
Observed wind damage in some pockets was consistent with estimated
wind speeds of 105 mph, resulting in over 500 downed trees in the area.

.Wet Microburst Wind Damage...

Peak Wind (estimated): 105 mph
Path Length /statute/:  2 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   .5 miles
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             07/20/25
Start Time:             504pm EDT
Start Location:         Sanbornton, NH
Start Lat/Lon:          43.5023 / -71.5852

End Date:               07/20/25
End Time:               510pm EDT
End Location:           Sanbornton, NH
End Lat/Lon:            49.4910 / -71.5502

Significant tree damage was located in Sanbornton, NH that was
consistent with a wet microburst. Numerous eye witnesses expressed
that the strongest winds occurred with the heaviest downpour.
Damage was variable in the downburst area with a general southeast
fall direction to the trees being observed. There where two distinct
pockets of damage that took hundreds of trees down, to include pine,
oak and maple. Trees where both uprooted and snapped. In addition,
hundreds of other trees where downed on the edges of the damage area,
but damage was more sporadic in nature. Some structral damage did
occur, but was mostly confined to sheds and shelter structures. A few
vehicles were also damaged due to trees falling on them. Additional
damage was likely further in the woods, but was not accessible for
the damage survey.  An estimated 500 trees were either snapped or blown
down in the damage area.

Over 400 miles in 6 minutes.  Impressive.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

48.7 this AM....all just a dream soon enough-

soon enough, hopefully three months of that Dec-Feb

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

soon enough, hopefully three months of that Dec-Feb

nailed the temperature on Christmas morning with that 

[weathafella]

13 hours ago, kdxken said:

Rayleigh scattering up the Ying Yang! Got to be a top fiverr. Best? 

 

Mie scattering in San Francisco Bay?

[weathafella]

As I remember from the first optics class I took, Rayleigh=1/Lambda to the 4th power while Mie=1/Lambda 

As Van Morrison implies…

 

[ineedsnow]

[ineedsnow]

49.8 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

49.8 

Get used to it. 

 

[kdxken]

Moss is fading. We're getting there. 

 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Get used to it. 

 

Ya it's coming I thought it would of started earlier but looks to start soon.. we refresh 

[weatherwiz]

11 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Possibly something @weatherwiz might be interested in.   I just had this video show up on my YouTube feed.  Not sure why.  
but a decent documentary on the 1995 Great Barrington MA tornado 

it just posted 5 days ago   Worth watching IMHO 

 

I'll give this a watch tonight!

[weatherwiz]

11 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

As I understand the AI models, they do initialize with the same data as the physical models....radiosonde, satellite, etc.  So they aren't completely "anti-physics".  The AI models already seem to be ahead of the physical models in many respects, although in my entirely empirical observation,  the physics models are still better within a few days.  A blend is indicated now, but I agree, quantum computing will change everything.

Didn't meant to imply they don't initialize with the same data but the backbone behind it all is the quality of the data being ingested, the amount of data, and then the physics/calculus operations being performed and if there are errors or poor performance on this, well AI or not, the modeled forecast is going to struggle. I really can't wait though for quantum computing! 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No threads yet on the following:

Fairly widespread SVR late Fri.  Spot 5" totals 18z Fri-06z Mon, inclusive of several short duration FF events, primarily Sunday. This may include embedded iso svr.  Last chance for 100F this year Newark-NYC seems like this Friday but above normal mean of 90+ occurrences at hand for KEWR as 90+ reoccurs Saturday and Tuesday July 29.

Tuesday: nw flow svr event. 

August: seasonable variability again as per July with a cooler than normal first week, then seemingly wetter and warmer than normal last 3 weeks of Aug as the w Atlantic ridge builds in response to the strong 5H heat ridge near the Rockies, possibly edging west toward the end of the month.  Support from 00z/22 GEFS qpf through 700+ hours as seen on Pivotal and spot check of ECMWF INT and the July 17 CPC 1 month outlook.  This suggests to me probably no more 100 at KEWR but plenty of 90-95 after the first week of August. 

Will check in tomorrow

Plenty of summer heat and dews to go for all heading into and thru Augdewst 

[weatherwiz]

Friday is pretty interesting...I mean it sucks that H5 temps are only around -5C but dews 73-75 should help compensate for weak mlvl lapse rates but that is some pretty good shear with ~2000 MLCAPE.

[OceanStWx]

11 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I drove through Monterey a few days later.  Amazing to see acres upon acres of trees snapped like matchsticks about 15' off the ground.

It still give a  salute when I drive through Sturbridge on 84 after 6/1/11. You can still see the scar in the tree growth on top of that hill to the west of the highway.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Friday is pretty interesting...I mean it sucks that H5 temps are only around -5C but dews 73-75 should help compensate for weak mlvl lapse rates but that is some pretty good shear with ~2000 MLCAPE.

Threat looks north with the later timing? Maybe west towards CT in the late pm/early night

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Threat looks north with the later timing? Maybe west towards CT in the late pm/early night

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar scenario to the other day occur. I think we can maintain stuff into the mid-evening and probably to the coast. Decent shortwave and forcing with modest height falls. I could see a scenario where storms are maintained by developing cold pools. Looks good for a few microbursts

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It still give a  salute when I drive through Sturbridge on 84 after 6/1/11. You can still see the scar in the tree growth on top of that hill to the west of the highway.

I drive 20 west a lot and still see where the path was in Brimfield and Holland.

[SouthCoastMA]

Hang on to the summer you have before we enter the 8 month autumn period 

[kdxken]

72° / 59° still okay but I was spoiled by yesterday. You can feel the difference while you're working.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Hang on to the summer you have before we enter the 8 month autumn period 

It's really like 2-3 months of fall, 2-3 months of summer, 1 month of winter and 5-7 months of early spring.. 

[kdxken]

 

[SouthCoastMA]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's really like 2-3 months of fall, 2-3 months of summer, 1 month of winter and 5-7 months of early spring.. 

Fair enough, I was being hyperbolic 

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, kdxken said:

72° / 59° still okay but I was spoiled by yesterday. You can feel the difference while you're working.

Its creeping up slowly.

[MegaMike]

18 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I saw this the other day. While I am extremely skeptical with the AI stuff and the movement with AI within the field, this is something I think is worst investing resources in regarding AI...short-term/nowcasting, not medium-range. I think there is tremendous potential in this regard when it comes to improving lead times with severe weather and flash flooding. 

Glad you threw in there the caveat too...that is something that should definitely be made aware and realized by everyone reading the study. 

But I am excited for this. 

Logically, it doesn't make sense to me: Let's bring in data scientists to create a stand alone, meteorological modeling system lol. I'm sure it'll get better (build dat' training dataset), but for now, I'd say they're 1-2 decades away from making anything comparable to traditional NWP.

I still think using AI to bias correct ic/bcs is the way to go. I know that has merit.

Yea, it's a bit misleading... They used HRRR analysis as ground truth to make the conclusion that 'HRRR-Cast is comparable to HRRR...' I'd still rather see evaluations/comparisons at METAR/radiosonde sites.