May 2025

[Feen]

Kinda chilly for May it feels like. Currently 69

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, Feen said:

Kinda chilly for May it feels like. Currently 69

Very average day

[winterwx21]

23 hours ago, FPizz said:

We do not need the 7" that the euro has.  3" in that time frame is plenty 

I agree with you, and I see the Euro has backed off from the huge amounts and is now more in line with the other models. Most of the area is probably looking at a 2 to 4 inch rainfall for the period, which is good. We could use a big soaking. 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I agree with you, and I see the Euro has backed off from the huge amounts and is now more in line with the other models. Most of the area is probably looking at a 2 to 4 inch rainfall for the period, which is good. We could use a big soaking. 

And it will be spread over a few days so it will soak in gradually.  I'd be very happy with 2" of rainfall spread over 3-4 days.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

And it will be spread over a few days so it will soak in gradually.  I'd be very happy with 2" of rainfall spread over 3-4 days.

Pretty ideal situation going into the heart of the warm season. The slow protracted amounts are ideally suited for raising soil moisture. 

[Stormlover74]

Icon crushes LI and ct with 5+

[SI Mailman]

6 hours ago, dWave said:

I did it last year, the forecast was pretty bleak, but it didn't turn out so bad for people in the earlier waves. They finished basically rain free. Just cloudy and cool. Maybe some brief drizzle. When the rain did come it poured though. Still got soaked on the way home. For those who started later it must of sucked toward the end.

 

I did it every year for a 6 year stretch from '07 to '12.  '09 was the worst, I believe we actually had a coastal storm the day of the tour.  I vowed to never ride it again if the forecast called for rain.  

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Saturday will be unseasonably warm with tomorrow being the wwarmer of the two days. Highs tomorrow will likely reah the lower 80s in New York City and mid 80s in the warmest spots. It will turn somewhat cooler on Sunday. A wet pattern is likely Sunday through Wednesday. A significant rainfall is possible, but there remain large differences among the computer models.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -4.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.598 today.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Icon crushes LI and ct with 5+

Meh. We’ve gotten 5” in a few hours. This is nothing. Can’t wait for it to be over 

[golfer67]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Saturday will be unseasonably warm with tomorrow being the wwarmer of the two days. Highs tomorrow will likely reah the lower 80s in New York City and mid 80s in the warmest spots. It will turn somewhat cooler on Sunday. A wet pattern is likely Sunday through Wednesday. A significant rainfall is possible, but there remain large differences among the computer models.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -4.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.598 today.

 

Is Sunday looking like an all day washout or moreso afternoon?

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, golfer67 said:

Is Sunday looking like an all day washout or moreso afternoon?

There likely will be a period where it is dry on Sunday.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Meh. We’ve gotten 5” in a few hours. This is nothing. Can’t wait for it to be over 

5" over a few days would actually be quite beneficial. We all know what normally happens on LI in the summer. Also we have to see how it evolves. Could be a few days of mostly raw misty crap on easterly wind while the real rain is west.

[JonClaw]

Well that was an unexpected crash of thunder...

[Stormlover74]

I see 2 little cells that popped up. One in Bergen one over Queens

[Snowlover11]

swingggg and a miss.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Saturday will be unseasonably warm with tomorrow being the wwarmer of the two days. Highs tomorrow will likely reah the lower 80s in New York City and mid 80s in the warmest spots. It will turn somewhat cooler on Sunday. A wet pattern is likely Sunday through Wednesday. A significant rainfall is possible, but there remain large differences among the computer models.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -4.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.598 today.

 

I think NYC receives its first shot of heat sometime between May 17th-24th. It just seems to be timing out that way with eventually a high pressure ridge settling over the eastern mid west and the east. Hinted on long range GFS and Euro. 

WX/PT

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just had a random loud crack of thunder, woke me up. Strange, no rain either.

[Snowlover11]

Brief tiny downpour moved thru yonkers.

[Dan76]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just had a random loud crack of thunder, woke me up. Strange, no rain either.

Poured in Rvc

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think NYC receives its first shot of heat sometime between May 17th-24th. It just seems to be timing out that way with eventually a high pressure ridge settling over the eastern mid west and the east. Hinted on long range GFS and Euro. 

WX/PT

 

I agree. Once we get through the cooler period, I suspect some of the heat will move into the region.

[Brian5671]

Loud storm about 2am here-dropped .15

[IrishRob17]

While it remains to me seen how much rain falls over the next several days one thing is certain, it’s the season to check your rain gauges for debris from everything blooming so you don’t wonder why your totals may seem off when compared to other local stations. .01 last in a heavy, but clearly short lived shower around 2am. 58/54 currently. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Poured in Rvc

Makes sense. Small intense cell on radar, I probably missed the rain by a few blocks, but was close enough for the loud thunder.

[bluewave]

More early season mid 80s heat for the warm spots today as we are off to the 3rd and 4th warmest spring on record from Newark out to Islip. Hopefully, we can actually verify some heavy rains out of  the cutoff low forecast. This has some potential to reduce the drought a bit. But it’s going to be a challenge to completely make up the 10 inch deficit since last summer over NJ and Eastern PA. But a 25% to 50% reduction would be good news. Since drought feedback going into the summer would result in a very hot summer especially in areas away from the sea breeze. So we will need another 2 or 3 potential big event like this to push back in the heat potential this summer. Since the only way we have seen summer heat in recent years get reduced some has been through very heavy rains like in 2023. But that was a developing El Niño. La Ninas often have cutoffs in May but transition to drier conditions over the summer.  I would be nice to see a wetter pattern hold into the summer. Maybe the Euro seasonal release on the 5th will have some clues.

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2012-05-01	53.4	0
2	2010-05-01	53.3	0
3	1945-05-01	52.8	0
4	2025-05-01	52.2	0
5	2024-05-01	52.0	0
6	2023-05-01	51.4	0
-	1973-05-01	51.4	0
7	2016-05-01	51.0	0
-	1985-05-01	51.0	0
8	1977-05-01	50.3	0
9	2021-05-01	50.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2012-05-01	49.8	0
2	2010-05-01	49.5	0
3	2025-05-01	49.0	0
4	2024-05-01	48.2	0
5	2023-05-01	47.6	0
-	1973-05-01	47.6	0
6	2016-05-01	47.4	0
7	1991-05-01	47.3	0
8	2002-05-01	47.0	0
9	2021-05-01	46.7	0
10	1985-05-01	46.6	0
-	1977-05-01	46.6	0

[Sundog]

14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Makes sense. Small intense cell on radar, I probably missed the rain by a few blocks, but was close enough for the loud thunder.

Here is a map of the overnight rainfall:

[wdrag]

Holding off  a thread for now... manageable 3-6" event northwest of I95 with isolated 8" possible by Tue night???  NYC-LI-coastal NJ my guess per WPC and modeling is 1.5-3.5".  Most of this Sun-Tue but starts inland late Sat.

Impacts outdoor activity.  Be careful with lightning, slippery embankments.  MLB impacts likely with delays-cancels ATL-DCA-PHL-NYY-BOS sometime in this Sat-Tuesday time frame with leftover scattered convection per the upper low departure Wed afternoon. Might be some embedded isolated severe but do check SPC and local WFO's.

I didnt want to start a thread based on the beefiest ensembling which is the Euro. GEFS and CMCE lagging. 

Monitoring remotely on an Iphone. If I get time I may add info this weekend?

[It's Always Sunny]

53 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Here is a map of the overnight rainfall:

Measured 0.11" at my house. Definitely wasn't anticipating the thunderstorms given meager instability. There was always a chance of rain but those storms were impressive! Woke me up in the middle of the night.

[gravitylover]

Heavy rain and big thunder overnight. .4 in just a few minutes. The town hwy dept garage 1.5 miles away recorded .78!

[SACRUS]

 

67 / 57 and on the way to the 6th 80s degree day for many.   Partly cloudy .  Warm and more humid tomorrow with scattered showers and storms in the evening as the cutoff to our west pumps a southerly flow - heaviest rains Sat North and west.  By Sunday the ULL is pushing east and continued scattered showers/storms with the brunt of the heavy rain north and west.  Mon - Wed AM look to see the heaviest rains with totals of the Fri - Wed period in the 2 - 4 inches range with more north and west.  Beyond there 5/8 - mid month looks near normal temps wise and could see normal rainfall.  No sustained period of cool or warmth exected through mid month.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2001)
NYC: 90 (2018)
LGA: 90 (2018)
JFK: 83 (2018)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1943)
NYC: 37 (1903)
LGA: 40 (1978)
JFK: 39 (1964)


Historical:

1899 - A storm buried Havre, MT, under 24.8 inches of snow, an all-time record for that location. The water equivalent of 2.48 inches was a record 24 hour total for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

1920 - A swarm of tornadoes in Rogers, Mayes and Cherokee Counties in Oklahoma killed 64 persons. (David Ludlum)

1929 - Virginia's worst tornado disaster occurred. Six tornadoes, two of which were west of the Blue Mountains, killed 22 people. Twelve children and a teacher were killed at Rye Cove, in Scott County. Four schools were destroyed by the storms. (The Weather Channel)

1983 - Severe thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes across Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York State. The tornadoes caused five deaths. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced golf ball size hail in northern Louisiana, and wind gusts to 77 mph at Lake Providence LA. Thunderstorms in Arkansas produced 4.20 inches of rain at Arkadelphia and 4.00 inches at Bismarck. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful storm produced snow and high winds in the Central Rockies and the Central High Plains Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 12 inches at Strasburg, and winds in southeastern Colorado gusted to 87 mph at Lamar. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in eastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing to the north of a warm front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas. There were 93 reports of severe weather. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Beattie, and baseball size hail was reported at Ranger and Breckenridge. Juneau AK reported a record high temperature of 72 degrees while Honolulu equalled their record low for the month of May with a reading of 60 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Fourteen cities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 90s. Tampa FL reported a record high of 97 degrees, and Fort Stewart GA was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 100 degrees.

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northeastern Texas to western Arkansas during the evening and early nighttime hours. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado which injured thirteen persons at Paris TX, and produced baseball size hail at Rio Vista TX. Thunderstorm rains of four to seven inches caused flash flooding in west central Arkansas, southern and eastern Oklahoma, and northern Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)