2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[8611Blizz]

Lock it up! 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, 8611Blizz said:

Lock it up! 

 

Is this guy legit?

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is this guy legit?

Everyone on social media are calling for a brutal winter in the east.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is this guy legit?

Lol... His above average snowfall map even includes the Florida Keys...  That's all you need to know.... Lol. 

[cleetussnow]

5 hours ago, 8611Blizz said:

Lock it up! 

 

The worst of winter is us sobbing over the inland runners and cutters.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone on social media are calling for a brutal winter in the east.

Read an article yesterday, the Farmers Almanacs winter forecast is similar to this guys.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Read an article yesterday, the Farmers Almanacs winter forecast is similar to this guys.

Yep

[Winter Wizard]

6 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is this guy legit?

Nope, this guy does the same song and dance every year. This is all you need to know:

[Snowcrazed71]

21 hours ago, 8611Blizz said:

Lock it up! 

 

This guy..... Lolol. He makes everything about 1,000 more intense than it ever is. He likes using words like " Massive " or " HUGE". 

[MJO812]

Every winter outlook I have seen so far on YouTube have the east very cold and lots and lots of snow due to neutral enso to weak la Nina.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Every winter outlook I have seen so far on YouTube have the east very cold and lots and lots of snow due to neutral enso to weak la Nina.

Stop right there and vet your sources. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 8/14/2025 at 7:03 AM, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is this guy legit?

No, he posts basically the same forecast year after year. And the only thing brutal about most of the time is his accuracy rate.

[ORH_wxman]

17 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Every winter outlook I have seen so far on YouTube have the east very cold and lots and lots of snow due to neutral enso to weak la Nina.

I'm actually growing more and more optimistic by the week for this winter. Small positives adding up like QBO, N ATL SSTA, negative ENSO anomalies concentrating east of 140W....still super early and seasonal forecasting is still super high variance, but I'd rather have small positives in our favor than not. 

[brooklynwx99]

 

[kdxken]

On 8/14/2025 at 7:03 AM, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is this guy legit?

I would say yes. But I also just wired some Nigerian Prince 300 k from my savings account.

[Snowcrazed71]

Interesting read on another weather anomaly happening in the Indian ocean.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-iod-event-developing-winter-pattern-forecast-united-states-canada-fa/

[Typhoon Tip]

This stuff is more appealing in a 1992 planetary climate for me. 

Not so sure I vibe with that now that we've evolved to a 2025 state of global climate affairs.

Most of the outlooks and conjectures I've read or heard are clad enough relative to classical modes ( longer termed telecons, air/ocean/land ...etc), but I'm compelled to consider a consistently observing winter circulation modes being unstable, despite those efforts.  And thus ...less predictable, more so than usual - higher variance including at times unusually large correction ranges ( warm vs cool ), that for lack of better words, flout the governing/preceding indicators.  More occurrences of anti-correlation. 

This instability was always clearly predicted by climate models and so interesting enough appears to be manifesting...

I'm not sure I see a compensating mechanism that caps that manifestation from doing the same thing.  I realize I've been sarcastic at times in mockery over having this winter just being like the last 7 or 8 consecutive ones/8 number of years, but there is modicum of valid reason in that humor.  Because simply put, the 'disruption' aspects having been getting in the way of all intents and purposes ... with enough consistency and a large enough sample size to dim confidence in the reliance on classical application.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

of course that's not intended to mean we can't get a bombed this year either...   just sayn'

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This stuff is more appealing in a 1992 planetary climate for me. 

Not so sure I vibe with that now that we've evolved to a 2025 state of global climate affairs.

Most of the outlooks and conjectures I've read or heard are clad enough relative to classical modes ( longer termed telecons, air/ocean/land ...etc), but don't consider that winter circulation modes have been both unstable, despite those efforts.  And thus ...less predictable, more so than usual - higher variance including at times unusually large correction ranges ( warm vs cool ), that for lack of better words, flout the governing/preceding indicators.    

This instability was always clearly predicted by climate models and so interesting enough appears to be manifesting...

I'm not sure I see a compensating mechanism that caps that manifestation from doing the same thing.  I realize I've been sarcastic at times in mockery over having this winter just being like the last 7 or 8 consecutive ones/8 number of years, but there is modicum of valid reason in that humor.  Because simply put, the 'disruption' aspects having been getting in the way of all intents and purposes ... heh

 

I think there’s another force here too….we overestimate our ability to forecast winter previously as well. We had some “classic” behavior in the 2003-2012 period where the El Niños and La Nina’s were acting very much like we “expect”…so maybe we created a recency bias for a time until things “broke down” circa mid-2010s…some will argue 2013 with the big N ATL changes and others will argue Super Nino 2015-16, but either way it was around that time. 
 

However, one only needs to look back to decades past to see how many ENSO events/winters didn’t act like we “expect” them to. Some of the early 1950s winters behaved very similarly to our recent winters but just a warmer baseline now. They were still very warm in the means, especially over New England and SE Canada. The El Niños in the late 1960s basically acted as La Niñas (particularly 1968-69)…even the super Nino in 1972-73 was not like others. Probably a lot of -PDO hangover influence. The 1980s had their own bizarre quirks and then we have the famed ‘95-96 winter which was a La Niña but had an active STJ more akin to El Nino which contributed to the wildly positive snow anomalies in the mid-Atlantic. Those are just the ones off the top of my head. I try to keep the early 1990s in their own category due to the influence of Pinatubo. There was some radical stuff going on there (we’ve talked about this previously but the extreme cold in the 1992-1994 period was likely not a coincidence.)

There’s definitely new quirks going on as we warm different parts of the planet at different rates, but I’m not convinced we truly have some permanent new paradigm where most of the old rules don’t apply. History tends to rhyme including weather history…we might have an underlying baseline that is warmer, but I hesitate just throwing out previous references and rules. Not saying you are going that extreme, but more just a general comment on winter forecast and it’s a sentiment I’ve seen elsewhere. 
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there’s another force here too….we overestimate our ability to forecast winter previously as well. We had some “classic” behavior in the 2003-2012 period where the El Niños and La Nina’s were acting very much like we “expect”…so maybe we created a recency bias for a time until things “broke down” circa mid-2010s…some will argue 2013 with the big N ATL changes and others will argue Super Nino 2015-16, but either way it was around that time. 
 

However, one only needs to look back to decades past to see how many ENSO events/winters didn’t act like we “expect” them to. Some of the early 1950s winters behaved very similarly to our recent winters but just a warmer baseline now. They were still very warm in the means, especially over New England and SE Canada. The El Niños in the late 1960s basically acted as La Niñas (particularly 1968-69)…even the super Nino in 1972-73 was not like others. Probably a lot of -PDO hangover influence. The 1980s had their own bizarre quirks and then we have the famed ‘95-96 winter which was a La Niña but had an active STJ more akin to El Nino which contributed to the wildly positive snow anomalies in the mid-Atlantic. Those are just the ones off the top of my head. I try to keep the early 1990s in their own category due to the influence of Pinatubo. There was some radical stuff going on there (we’ve talked about this previously but the extreme cold in the 1992-1994 period was likely not a coincidence.)

There’s definitely new quirks going on as we warm different parts of the planet at different rates, but I’m not convinced we truly have some permanent new paradigm where most of the old rules don’t apply. History tends to rhyme including weather history…we might have an underlying baseline that is warmer, but I hesitate just throwing out previous references and rules. Not saying you are going that extreme, but more just a general comment on winter forecast and it’s a sentiment I’ve seen elsewhere. 
 

 

Nor should anyone ...

... But, if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability')  ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. 

There's a risk in reading these cautions in absolute dictation.   Becoming is not become.  Like I said, none of this forestalls the advent of bomb winter. 

These teleconnectors are not 1::1 ... never have been. They can't be.  There are too many contributing forces, creating a huge polynomial, each one more and then less- so scaling the equations for influence does not result a consistent contribution from their individual parts from year to year.  

Within that noise, there is tendency, however, during these the last 10 years ( rather consistently...) to be "more noisy"   lol for lack of better phrase.  I'm aware of situational bias. But I'm considering that there are reasons that support the ongoing disruption/observations therein.