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52 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

thank goodness it will turn cooler starting thursday wearing a hoodie and jacket in these temps is uncomfortable..

79 with a dew of 45 is uncomfortable? I mean even for cold hounds this is just about perfect.

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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Save these posts for the 94 and humid days.  

Yeah low 80s feels great with dewpoints only around 50. Beautiful day. It hit 83 here. Looks a little warmer tomorrow ... I'm thinking 87. 

Then we go to cool weather with the east winds for late week. We might get stuck in the 50s on Friday. 

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The mean temperature in New York City during the first week of May was 61.6°. That was 1.6° above normal.

After a morning shower or thundershower, tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day with readings reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. The highest readings are likely in and around Philadelphia where the temperature could top out in the middle or even upper 80s. Another shot of cooler air will likely arrive on Thursday. The chill won't be exceptional for the season.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.85°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was +7.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.200 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

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28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The mean temperature in New York City during the first week of May was 61.6°. That was 1.6° above normal.

After a morning shower or thundershower, tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day with readings reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. The highest readings are likely in and around Philadelphia where the temperature could top out in the middle or even upper 80s. Another shot of cooler air will likely arrive on Thursday. The chill won't be exceptional for the season.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.85°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was +7.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.200 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

One above normal month (May projected) after another against the highest set of 30 year "normals" we have.  You would have to be a high roller to bet against an above normal Summer at this point.  Might not be outrageous heat but 2-3 above normal for JJA would not surprise me in the least.  Mainly from slightly above normal highs and very warm overnight lows.   We'll see.

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2 hours ago, MANDA said:

One above normal month (May projected) after another against the highest set of 30 year "normals" we have.  You would have to be a high roller to bet against an above normal Summer at this point.  Might not be outrageous heat but 2-3 above normal for JJA would not surprise me in the least.  Mainly from slightly above normal highs and very warm overnight lows.   We'll see.

Good bet with the overnight lows. As the city and immediate surrounding area continues to build more and more big skyscrapers, the heat Island at night will probably get even warmer.

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47 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice area of precip headed our way, just did the spring plant installation on campus so would love a soaking. More than likely it will split to the north and south of the city. 

0.06” in the gauge this morning with a few claps of thunder.  Next..

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6 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Move. Just move so we don't have to keep reading this.

Not everyone wants to read about people loving hot weather. 

It's a weather forum. Deal with it.

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22 hours ago, bkviking said:

Any prospect of this -NAO breaking down? Obviously we are not experiencing a Spring 2010 with similar ENSO transition.

The general pattern of 2-3 days making it to 80s in the warm spots before clouds,showers, and onshore flow along with cooler temperatures  looks to continue. Ensembles keep a trough near by. So chances for showers and thunderstorms every few days with generally above normal rainfall. 
 

F224B30E-5F04-4062-BF21-79CC02E254DC.thumb.png.5e517c7af352a429eee09ee9446cbe4c.png

96C9AB0D-30A8-4E07-8E0A-FAE16B0ED21A.thumb.png.90f54ff1facbbf66126c99a00c776a9e.png

70570D78-FC11-4E04-87F7-DB2794FC8720.thumb.png.a4a3080eab734e7591a68fac8f6a94e4.png

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The general pattern of 2-3 days making it to 80s in the warm spots before clouds,showers, and onshore flow along with cooler temperatures  looks to continue. Ensembles keep a trough near by. So chances for showers and thunderstorms every few days with generally above normal rainfall. 
 

F224B30E-5F04-4062-BF21-79CC02E254DC.thumb.png.5e517c7af352a429eee09ee9446cbe4c.png

96C9AB0D-30A8-4E07-8E0A-FAE16B0ED21A.thumb.png.90f54ff1facbbf66126c99a00c776a9e.png

70570D78-FC11-4E04-87F7-DB2794FC8720.thumb.png.a4a3080eab734e7591a68fac8f6a94e4.png

Big reversal of the drought over the northern gulf states

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