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Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one


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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

As models bottomed out around 18z , one thing they still had a closed mid levels going under us and good lift surrounding 5H especially. Most know one of the times QPF matters less is with extent N of mid level goodies . Most storms have this to a degree it’s how CNE gets surprise outer fluff bands from some SNE coastals. The confluence was hurting This but looks to me like up to pike should be good 

It’s easy to say that now. I don’t think anyone thought or truly believed that yesterday afternoon and evening. If they did , I missed the posts. Just truly grateful this happened. 

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I hear a lot of talk of a positive bust and that the models that signalled a very rapid sudden shift shit the bed. 

I mean, yes, they shit the bed, for a lack of any consistency, inside of 24 hours massive changes. Thereafter they were a little wrong, but not very, if not looking at snow maps.

But the idea that that whole reestimation of the storm was wrong because the best fronto was a few miles further north? The entire precip shield is still wayyy south, as reflected? Am I missing something?

For my part, slop, and ragged radar so far. Surprised to see snow on the grass in places, not surprised to see better banding in all the usual places. I cant figure out whether the bands over Long Island will make it here consistently or not. Hope so later today.

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