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1/9-1/10 Now Morphing to Less-Than-Exciting Power Cutter


Torch Tiger
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For those who had rain before the snow in the last storm, I would check out those downspouts for ice blockages, especially downspouts with extensions away from the house.  I took out slabs that were blocking the ends of the downspouts today, some which were over a foot long.  That ice is not going to melt very quickly once the rain begins.  It wasn't melting much at all today.

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't have the modeled LLJ for 12/18, but you can see the difference a bit in the EFI product.

ens_2023121712_ne_24h_10fgi_SFC_36.png?w

ens_2024010912_ne_24h_10fgi_SFC_36.png?w

Remember this product isn't as simple as extreme = big wind, it just means unusual for this time of year. 

Much bigger CAD signal for this event. Also a much bigger downslope signal. 

The shift of tails (black lines, and the real indication of the higher end gusts) also are inverted for this event. Instead of values near 1 across the interior to the coast of Maine, they are all focused in the northwest downslope zones. I would be more surprised if GYX pops a 50 kt gusts than BTV.

That does provide a good visual as to the differences between the two events. 

But I also wonder if we're kind of comparing apples-to-oranges here. Ultimately, there are several ways we can get big wind events to verify around here. While this may not be similar to 12/18 that doesn't necessarily mean a similar impact can't happen. Not using this as a means to justify the wind potential, but sometimes a signal is missed when the focus turns to comparing to a previous event. 

But essentially, for tonight its virtually convection or bust and how robust that convection can be. 

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After a burst of early afternoon snow and sleet, freezing rain has been ongoing since 2 pm in the high elevations of Burlington, CT... 1,100+ ft. driveway a sleet of ice; icicles handing from the mailbox... 31 degrees

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

There's more wind gust from posters in this thread then there will be for some inland areas.

I don't think we'll gust past 40, if we even get that much - much different than 4 hours of 50+ gusts on 12/18. 
GYX has chopped the snowfall for here by 2" compared to that from the overnight crew, 6-10 down from 8-12, with change fully to RA by 5 AM.  Six miles west the forecast is 9-14 with the change at 7.  I think the 2 places will be closer together than that, but the big difference will likely come from the observer from Temple, 2 towns west but, more importantly, about 800' higher.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

I don't think we'll gust past 40, if we even get that much - much different than 4 hours of 50+ gusts on 12/18. 
GYX has chopped the snowfall for here by 2" compared to that from the overnight crew, 6-10 down from 8-12, with change fully to RA by 5 AM.  Six miles west the forecast is 9-14 with the change at 7.  I think the 2 places will be closer together than that, but the big difference will likely come from the observer from Temple, 2 towns west but, more importantly, about 800' higher.

Elevation for this one will be key, They should hold on longer for the bigger totals,  I think outages could be quite widespread though with the snow on the trees and power lines, Then rain on that, Then some wind added, Time will tell.

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14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow.  Calm down in Greenfield.  Snow is  falling straight down.

Pretty normal here with a strong Low cutting.  SE LLJ ripping down W/NW facing slopes of the higher terrain. Meso's showing this pretty well. Does seem to look worse in NVT, so see how it goes overnight up there.  

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