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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


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53 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

However, we've seen in the past few years how the ensembles can be underdispersive (i.e. not capturing the true spread of potential outcomes). It's why we tend to see the ensemble mean shift in tandem with the op so often. 

Completely .

wouldn’t be shocked if that shifted before late nite runs and like you said they often shift in tandem 

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Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

12" in 24 hours for Brattleboro on the 10th... Holy f***...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

The 7th will be a little more tenuous for the Greenfield to Brattleboro corridor.

We will be a little bit too far northwest.  May end up with crappy snow growth on the easterly flow.

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The 7th will be a little more tenuous for the Greenfield to Brattleboro corridor.
We will be a little bit too far northwest.  May end up with crappy snow growth on the easterly flow.
As long as there is snow on the ground idc, considering I spent 28 winters in the south and only have 2 major snows to speak of (8" in 2010, 5" in 2018) I will take what I can get XD.

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

As long as there is snow on the ground idc, considering I spent 28 winters in the south and only have 2 major snows to speak of (8" in 2010, 5" in 2018) I will take what I can get XD.

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

ya just a bit of a change for you lol

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I can't wait to start geeking out over Bufkit. 12z GFS usually out around noon...sometimes as early as 11:56 AM EST. It might be early but it's never early. 

On the point soundings for SE MA, it had a good cross-hair sig on the 12z run....your area may have been a little far NW on GFS for the real goods in that department, but it wouldn't take much of a move to get into them.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its nuts how that Ginxy to you to Scooter corridor cleans up all of the time the last several years.

This will be more just inland from me I think. Enjoy the mini CJ prior to any main snow.

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8 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

As long as there is snow on the ground idc, considering I spent 28 winters in the south and only have 2 major snows to speak of (8" in 2010, 5" in 2018) I will take what I can get XD.

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Perspective is a beautiful thing. Can we send some sne peeps down south for a decade?

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hmm. Kind of gross 

You can ignore the Ukie clown map close to the coast...it has a bad warm bias near the sfc, so it often shows rain like 10-15 miles inland despite 925 temps of like -3C.

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