Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If it is a early thumping of snow that is what the coast needs, then we better hope for an early start of the precip.

That's what the href shows. A general 1 to 2 with 2 to 4 just nw of 95 through 0z Sunday so would be a decent thump between 4 and 7pm

[ILoveWinter]

Clearly things not looking good for the immediate Metro though I still hold out the possibility of a strong hour or two front end thump that could lead to an inch or so at the Park. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

So much still in question with 36 hrs until game time I am sitting here in New City / Rockland County just hoping to see 2 or 3 inches out of this storm because this might easily be a rain event for folks like myself who live  North n West of NYC and 20 miles North of the GW bridge,,,,,now back to the model and storm discussion

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's what the href shows. A general 1 to 2 with 2 to 4 just nw of 95 through 0z Sunday so would be a decent thump between 4 and 7pm

To me that seems like a problem for coastal locations. I would think and easterly wind all day will have temperatures well above freezing by late afternoon.

[donsutherland1]

HREF through 1/7 12z:

[forkyfork]

we've seen storms trend north right up until start time...

[NJwx85]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Or the models bust and we get several inches like we did a few years ago.

I still think that with such a crappy air mass that it’s not going to matter much. Yesterday I was confident in 6-10” up here in Rockland. I think 3-5” is a better call today. We shall see. If it comes in as a wall it could briefly over perform. The problem is the strong Easterly flow along the coast until after the low passes. Over the ocean temps will be in the mid 40’s.

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

So much still in question with 36 hrs until game time I am sitting here in New City / Rockland County just hoping to see 2 or 3 inches out of this storm because this might easily be a rain event for folks like myself who live  North n West of NYC and 20 miles North of the GW bridge,,,,,now back to the model and storm discussion

I’m in Bardonia. 3-5” here, maybe isolated 6-8” if it overperforms.

[RU848789]

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I hope your correct with NYC getting 2-3 inches. Out here I would be happy with about an inch of snow.

I didn't say NYC would get 2-3" as a forecast - I was only talking about the 12Z GFS verbatim likely leading to 2-3" OTG in Central Park.  

[NJwx85]

The 12z GGEM was great 20 miles inland and lingers snow Sunday.

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m in Bardonia. 3-5” here, maybe isolated 6-8” if it overperforms.

I hear you 85 but as Forky just pointed out this storm could easily be well N n West of both of us,,,,I hope we are both pleasantly surprised by this storm but BUST is not off the table

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

I didn't say NYC would get 2-3" as a forecast - I was only talking about the 12Z GFS verbatim likely leading to 2-3" OTG in Central Park.  

It depends on location in NYC. 2-4” at CP is a decent bet. JFK is toast.

[RU848789]

Speaking of uncertainty, look at the 12Z runs today so far. Just looking at Edison, the GFS has 1.8", the CMC has 6.7", the RGEM has 1.8" and the NAM has 4.6". Sure Holmdel or South Brunswick have generally less than 1" from those models, but parts of the 95 corridor (including NB to NYC) have similar modeled snowfalls as Edison.

If that's not huge uncertainty, I don't know what is. Will the large snowfall amounts in the snowier models verify? Likely not, which is why the NWS and others have ~1" to 1-2" accumulations NE of NB along 95, but one has to acknowledge the uncertainty in the models and the forecasts made at least in part from these models.  

[vegan_edible]

patiently waiting for the euro to either:
-make me smile
-make me return to work and get off this forum 

[David-LI]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GGEM was great 20 miles inland has lingers snow Sunday.

Im sorry what?

[Greg g]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m in Bardonia. 3-5” here, maybe isolated 6-8” if it overperforms.

I’m in stony point so might be a better position for snow being in northern Rockland ??

[MANDA]

If CP sees 1" call it a win.  

[NittanyWx]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It depends on location in NYC. 2-4” at CP is a decent bet. JFK is toast.

i'm skeptical of that in CP given 850 low

 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

i'm skeptical of that in CP given 850 low

 

2-4" in CP is not happening.  I'm very skeptical as well.

[mannynyc]

For the city I really don't think much has changed. The storm will start as heavy snow and then transition to rain at some point. Based on temps it will be very hard for snow to accumulate even if its super heavy.

[lee59]

16 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I didn't say NYC would get 2-3" as a forecast - I was only talking about the 12Z GFS verbatim likely leading to 2-3" OTG in Central Park.  

OK, my misunderstanding. Hopefully what the GFS is indicating turns out to be true, but I am not very hopeful.

[HVSnowLover]

13 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

patiently waiting for the euro to either:
-make me smile
-make me return to work and get off this forum 

I don’t put as much stock in the euro as I used to especially this short range but sure it’d be nice if it’s not disastrous near the coast.

[allgame830]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GGEM was great 20 miles inland and lingers snow Sunday.

Explain plz…. Amounts? Map? Something lol

[tim]

What about wrap around snow on sunday?

Think that's my only chance to see snow falling

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It depends on location in NYC. 2-4” at CP is a decent bet. JFK is toast.

Exactly, I’m just south of the JWB at almost 200’ and have seen so many storms over the years surprise  compared to the rest of the city. In marginal setups upper Manhattan and the Bronx can surprise. 

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, I’m just south of the JWB at almost 200’ and have seen so many storms over the years surprise  compared to the rest of the city. In marginal setups upper Manhattan and the Bronx can surprise. 

Yea last year north Bronx got like 5 inches when Central Park measured I think like 1 during the only snow event last year. I doubt that happens this time but NYC is big. 
 

The western Bronx and upper Manhattan are more hilly than the rest of the city which I guess helps in addition to being slightly further from the Atlantic. 

[Roger Smith]

Strange balance of governing factors in play, quite a cold high will get over central Quebec by early Saturday but it's further north than optimal arctic high position for east coasst snowstorm, even so, uppers do not favor very strong marine inflow. Sort of like two prize fighters staying in their respective corners throwing menacing punches to indicate hostility. Do they come to blows? If so where? 

I am guessing a middle solution which favors a stronger than normal gradient of snowfall outcomes, from near zero at JFK to near 8 inches in lower hudson valley. Would say 1.8" for NYC. As some have said, a lot of falling snow, 75% of it possibly melting on contact, in parts of New York City. A bit of top up to amounts on Sunday p.m. when low has shifted far enough east. 

[wishcast_hater]

Amazing the certainty of this storm for rain 5 days out but 48 hours out we cant nail down a snow storm.  Why cant a low form offshore and rob the energy from the main low west of us? 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Amazing the certainty of this storm for rain 5 days out but 48 hours out we cant nail down a snow storm.  Why cant a low form offshore and rob the energy from the main low west of us? 

Because it's a cutter. Could be Pittsburgh or Detroit same result for us. It's actually jumped around quite a bit on the models but only has repercussions further north or on the western side of the storm. 

[milleand]

Found this from December 23, 2010...Man how things have NOT changed much lol. Glad that one turned out well for all