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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812
MJO812

Henry Marguisity  

BxEngine
BxEngine

Can we take the psycho analysis and the fake pessimism and the fake optimism somewhere else and stick to the weather? Holy hell this is impossible to read. 

Stormlover74
Stormlover74

You heard keno lock up the thread close up shop

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

And it's wrong, I live near the Park and I measured 1.5-1.75 (multiple locations) during one of the storms last year.

Exactly, I work at Barnard/Columbia and run snow removal for Barnard. I can’t think of a better person to accurately account for the park. (Granted I’m 1 mile Nw and a tiny bit higher; but we have had several over 1 inch events during that stretch, they may have been at night or quickly melted but I need to start a better log of snow removal 

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
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Posted
4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

You guys waffle back n forth wayyyy to much with every model suite…. It’s not a trend until the same solution verifies in multiple model suites!

agreed...

 

RGEM NAM HRRR cyclic repeatable trends may be helpful. 06z/5  HRDPS is too heavy but its colder.   

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Fade this storm 

Agree

16 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

You guys waffle back n forth wayyyy to much with every model suite…. It’s not a trend until the same solution verifies in multiple model suites!

It's over. All the models have been trending north and warmer. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Overnight, the NAM finally "woke up" to reality in abandoning its high snowfall amounts that were not supported by its own soundings. The guidance also consolidated toward a minor event in the NYC area and a moderate event well north and west of the City i.e., West Milford, Goshen, Danbury, etc. The coating to 1" scenario for Central Park remains on the table. In fact, the 11z NBE now shows just 0.6" in the Park. The <1" daily snowfall streak will reach 691 days today and could continue through the upcoming storm. Next week's rain and wind storm will be a much higher-impact event for the region.

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
Just now, MJO812 said:

I had fun tracking this storm since last weekend when it showed a Mid Atlantic hit. 

Hopefully we get another storm to track soon.

Dude IMO your emotions are like a damn roller coaster with these models…. One day your like there’s a chance just last night you said that…. Now time to throw in the towel! I used to be like that and I am a major snow lover but it is what it is. I get it your on the coast basically so I guess at least for this one my chances are greatly higher of something decent since I reside in Northern Westchester. 

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the_other_guy

the_other_guy

Posted
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40 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

You guys waffle back n forth wayyyy to much with every model suite…. It’s not a trend until the same solution verifies in multiple model suites!

It is so ridiculous. Meanwhile, thru all the noise on here my stupid accuweather app has shown 3-6 like a rock. And long story short, Im gonna be on the line of something like that

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It is so ridiculous. Meanwhile, thru all the noise on here my stupid accuweather app has shown 3-6 like a rock. And long story short, Im gonna be on the line of something like that

Same here. I’m a bit further north then you but both of us should roughly be the same in terms of snow depth. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

Most of the veterans on the board (other than metfan) have known what this was for a week. A few inches of slop for the city and coast at best. We all knew it was a marginal airmass with east winds over warm waters. 
 

maybe next time the veterans will get a bit more respect and set a precedent for the rest of the winter 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Quite displeased with the likelihood of rain on Long Island while 50 miles north snows. Quite displeased. 

Well, that’s what we have to deal with very often living here. Nothing we can do about it. Like I said yesterday it won’t be much better IMBY and maybe no better. When you set expectations very low for this like I did it still sucks but worse than the alternative. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Well, that’s what we have to deal with very often living here. Nothing we can do about it. Like I said yesterday it won’t be much better IMBY and maybe no better. When you set expectations very low for this like I did it still sucks but worse than the alternative. 

Yep. The writing was on the wall for the last week. We’ve seen this setup many times so the result shouldn’t be a surprise 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The models move run to run. it is the same storm for 4 days

A Rain Snow line thru the Bronx + or - a few miles

 

Really, this hasn’t been a very tough storm to forecast other than the R/S line going through where a lot of people live, but these are always near impossible to nail down exactly. It’s a classic 1990s type I-95 or just NW rain snow line storm. That’s been clear for 4-5 days. That’s exactly what this pattern and setup will give us. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Most of the veterans on the board (other than metfan) have known what this was for a week. A few inches of slop for the city and coast at best. We all knew it was a marginal airmass with east winds over warm waters. 
 

maybe next time the veterans will get a bit more respect and set a precedent for the rest of the winter 

People put on their snow googles and see what they want to see while leaving basic meteorology out.  No cold high to the north?  Duh...not going to work out for the coast 99% of the time.

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BoulderWX

BoulderWX

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The models move run to run. it is the same storm for 4 days

A Rain Snow line thru the Bronx + or - a few miles

 

Most models had me in the jackpot 2-3 days ago and I said it would definitely change. It did. Jackpot moved about 40 miles north and northwest of me. So while the snow line has stayed close to Bronx, accumulations have gone way down for borderline suburbs like myself. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Most of the veterans on the board (other than metfan) have known what this was for a week. A few inches of slop for the city and coast at best. We all knew it was a marginal airmass with east winds over warm waters. 
 

maybe next time the veterans will get a bit more respect and set a precedent for the rest of the winter 

Um who ? We had a chance of accumulating snow when this storm was modeled to stay south of us. It wasn't until it trended north when things changed.

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Snowlover11

Snowlover11

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Most models had me in the jackpot 2-3 days ago and I said it would definitely change. It did. Jackpot moved about 40 miles north and northwest of me. So while the snow line has stayed close to Bronx, accumulations have gone way down for borderline suburbs like myself. 

you should be good in boulder, co.:lol:

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  • wdrag changed the title to Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

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