Will - Rutgers Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So do we challenge for 80 in Feb? What the hell ever happened to winter.... my god that really was one of my top 5 craziest weather events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 19 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: my god that really was one of my top 5 craziest weather events I talk about that day to people as an absolute anomaly and they just look at me as if everything I said was never said. Like one of the MIB guys came by and flashed them as I mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Welp, good to see absolutely no one took my MJO comments to heart this week 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, Nibor said: I talk about that day to people as an absolute anomaly and they just look at me as if everything I said was never said. Like one of the MIB guys came by and flashed them as I mentioned it. really bodes well for the future 9 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Welp, good to see absolutely no one took my MJO comments to heart this week i think you did great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Anyone reporting precip around NYC? It looks and feels like a squall is moving in but can't see anything on radar (clear air mode?) Dews are low also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 42 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: really bodes well for the future i think you did great We're just slowly roasting in that pot until it's too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: Welp, good to see absolutely no one took my MJO comments to heart this week People have a comfort zone. Everyone loved the back and forth though. I know I did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Metfan was right about phase 6. On a parallel earth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Metfan was right. Who is Metfan? All we are left with is MJO who jinxed us with his dumb name change 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: Who is Metfan? All we are left with is MJO who jinxed us with his dumb name change Can someone please change my name back. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 New England will like that run of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Can someone please change my name back. Thank you. Why can’t you change your own name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: my god that really was one of my top 5 craziest weather events People will think its just great. Trust me. I'd say they'd break out the shorts, but if you have noticed, many young men wear shorts all year now. There was this whole article on it, with teachers saying they all know a couple of these kids....accompanied by a picture of a young man shoveling snow, in shorts.....later that day my daughter's boyfriend showed up...in shorts. This is recently. I have an entire arsenal of boots, lined pants, socks, waterproof and insulated shoes etc. Despite all that and slathering a bottle of moisturizer twice a day on my skin, I go to bed itching all winter. So some warmth will help my suffering I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The WPC's latest ice probabilities: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 hours ago, psv88 said: Why can’t you change your own name? I already changed it many times. I can't change it anymore. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 No thread yet on what I think is a probable late Sat-Monday morning rain end as a bit of ice or snow NYC Sunday night or Monday. So far insignificant for LI most of NJ (less than 1/2" snow) but it's in play for ice or snow hazards I84 corridor which for me is the Poconos, nw NJ (Sussex County) through interior se NYS on up to MA. 00z/23 EPS has heaviest snow and ice north of I90 while GEFS-CMCE a little closer to I84 and all steady or increasing amounts. If it continues on this course I wont thread. if it slips closer to NYC, I will, but confidence yet on anything significant NYC-LI is well below average. Still worthy of monitoring, If the short term situation eventually involves ice LI, will add a thread, otherwise no threads from myself for now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Awful runs over night Weekend storm is done and models lost the cold after that. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. Are we ever going to have a cold and snowy winter again ? This is getting ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. we need to declare war on the Pacific Ocean and start dumping liquid helium into it (as well as into the Atlantic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Are we ever going to have a cold and snowy winter again ? This is getting ridiculous. As long as the government keeps spraying the atmosphere with chemtrails it won’t. . 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. that map says 46 degrees though? that's not extremely warm at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful runs over night Weekend storm is done and models lost the cold after that. Why would you believe the gfs and gefs when everything was against it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. It will be very hard to flip the script on that look to a cold/snowy one before winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. I see a very noticeable strato/troposphere decoupling over the pole which is again leading to a TPV displacement and polar air being shunted away from NA. We had the opposite occur in mid January. In an extremely warm climate year globally it makes sense that warm patterns are more extreme. But this is being exacerbated by the displacement and erosion of source region and the lack of snowpack recovery accordingly. It makes less physical sense that this is primarily an MJO byproduct. You're ignoring several large pieces of the puzzle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I see a very noticeable strato/troposphere decoupling over the pole which is again leading to a TPV displacement and polar air being shunted away from NA. In an extremely warm climate year globally it makes sense that warm patterns are more extreme. But this is being exacerbated by the displacement and erosion of source region and the lack of snowpack recovery accordingly. It makes less physical sense that this is primarily an MJO byproduct. You're ignoring several large pieces of the puzzle. It’s a combination of the record SSTs in the WPAC for such a strong El Niño and the El Niño itself. So we get MJO action which when combined with El Niño is very warm. As these MJOs progress eastward they excite the +EAMT leading to the Pacific Jet extensions. So just looking at one specific MJO phase composite probably won’t be adequate. This most recent Jet extension will take a few weeks to play out. Hoping we can see some improvements by mid-February relative to the start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Beautiful morning 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 If @bluewaveand other MJO folks want to argue amplification of the MJO in p6-p7 is driving the bus, that's fine. I'm gonna point out that the VP anomaly signal during this supposed 'lag' period that folks were trying to sell is 1) Nowhere near as prolonged and intense as late Novy 2) Displaced further west in the 'lag' period. 3) Not getting 'stuck' or 'slowing down' and again the VP signal is progressive. I admire the dedication to the cause though. I once again am gonna throw a challenge flag on this. I understand the argument, I've read the research and even a cursory look at the current observations via their own methodology is not lining up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s a combination of the record SSTs in the WPAC for such a strong El Niño and the El Niño itself. So we get MJO action which when combined with El Niño is very warm. As these MJOs progress eastward they excite the +EAMT leading to the Pacific Jet extensions. So just looking at one specific MJO phase composite probably won’t be adequate. This most recent Jet extension will take a few weeks to play out. Hoping we can see some improvements by mid-February relative to the start. The arctic region shifts cannot be adequately explained by El Nino, warm SSTs and tropical forcing alone. And we've already determined the lagged MJO h5 charts via Roundy argued for more blocking in this period. You're practicing selective verification here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Why would you believe the gfs and gefs when everything was against it? Same story every year-go with the coldest/snowiest model and run with it...JB's using the Euro control on his blog 'nuff said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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