Sunday, December 17 - Monday, December 18, 2023 Storm

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

66 GON

61 HVN 

53 HFD

49 BDL

This looks good 

[ineedsnow]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks for the forecast 

70 GON

66 HVN

54 HFD

59 BDL

 

63 GON

54 HVN

46 HFD

49 BDL

43 HERE

[kdxken]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My guess is near 55 for Kev. 
 

No idea here. I’ve seen these bust and become a wtf moment in the right conditions. Maybe 55-60

I'll take the under.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OXC? 

47

[weatherwiz]

Forecast speeds in mph

54 GON

41 HVN

43 HFD

39 BDL

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Forecast speeds in mph

54 GON

41 HVN

43 HFD

39 BDL

 

DIT just logged off and funneled another beer. 

[kdxken]

Holy s***! Loudest thunder of the year. One boom.

[kdxken]

Just now, kdxken said:

Holy s***! Loudest thunder of the year. One boom.

At least I hope it's thunder

[Roger Smith]

Actually surprised this did not get a name (Vince), have seen less impressive storms named in season. Took four months to get a TS designation on Atlantic January storm, so maybe same lag with (eventual) Vince. 

Can see basis for dispute over wind speeds, but given the nearly STS nature of almost - Vince, I would be very reluctant to downgrade wind speeds based on global model isobars alone. All day long there have been gusts over 65mph ahead of developing southern center (it is going twin-centered o/n). West of CT River and central LI, I can see a good argument for reducing wind gust forecasts, at least beyond 15z. East of that I would go with Kev's estimates or at least an average of Kev and 007. Gradient actually increases later in day for maine,  New  hampshire. 

Would expect svr wx potential e CT, n RI and parts of se ma towards 18z, even slgt tor risk. 

Given severe component, some location will gust to 80-100 mph but at airport wx stations? It will likely be some place without official measurements but verifiable based on wind damage. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Holy s***! Loudest thunder of the year. One boom.

Probably Kevin passing out after reading some of the posts

[BrianW]

I think BDR,HVN and GON see 60+

 

Low level wind anomalies are 5-6SD
above normal which is maxed out relative to climatology for this time of year, and PWAT anomalies are 4-5SD above normal. This is a very strong signal for an anomalous wind and rain event

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Actually surprised this did not get a name (Vince), have seen less impressive storms named in season. Took four months to get a TS designation on Atlantic January storm, so maybe same lag with (eventual) Vince. 

Can see basis for dispute over wind speeds, but given the nearly STS nature of almost - Vince, I would be very reluctant to downgrade wind speeds based on global model isobars alone. All day long there have been gusts over 65mph ahead of developing southern center (it is going twin-centered o/n). West of CT River and central LI, I can see a good argument for reducing wind gust forecasts, at least beyond 15z. East of that I would go with Kev's estimates or at least an average of Kev and 007. Gradient actually increases later in day for maine,  New  hampshire. 

Would expect svr wx potential e CT, n RI and parts of se ma towards 18z, even slgt tor risk. 

Given severe component, some location will gust to 80-100 mph but at airport wx stations? It will likely be some place without official measurements but verifiable based on wind damage. 

WTTE

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, BrianW said:

I think BDR,HVN and GON see 60+

 

Low level wind anomalies are 5-6SD
above normal which is maxed out relative to climatology for this time of year, and PWAT anomalies are 4-5SD above normal. This is a very strong signal for an anomalous wind and rain event

There’s a saying.. lead a gift horse to water..but can’t make em drink 

[HoarfrostHubb]

In a bit of a dry slot now 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nothing rip and reads holiday glee like pixel showers that look like Bahama June bullets on radar 

[UnitedWx]

Not much happening here at the moment.  44°

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Of course . Always do when bust . However… if the Deb’s saying take under 40, under models outputs no outages no trees down etc are wrong .. they need to acknowledge and tip caps. Will they? 

Excellent.  Fair enough. I’ll be glad to say you got this right for sure. 

[weatherwiz]

I think there will be some localized 60+ mph gusts though. Hires models continue to suggest there is going to be embedded thunderstorm activity tomorrow (perhaps two windows of potential). If we are to see wind gusts 50-55+ it's going to be within any thunderstorms. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

WTTE

This is the only thing getting named.

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Obs from the Carolina’s, say this is real. Very impressive for a non tropical event down there. And the seas are just nuts, with a huge fetch. 27’ at 14 seconds off South Carolina doesn’t happen often. 

Actually mentioned something very similar in my AFD update. 

The 00z raobs had about 65 kt at 925 at MHX, and 55 kt at WAL. The NAM forecast for the same hour was about 10 kt too high. But the RAP is pretty close. The RAP still brings a LLJ around 100 kt into the Gulf of Maine tomorrow, so that would give me a few hours midday of 50 kt gusts around the office.

Typically if the coast is going to get high wind warning, we also rip at the office.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually mentioned something very similar in my AFD update. 

The 00z raobs had about 65 kt at 925 at MHX, and 55 kt at WAL. The NAM forecast for the same hour was about 10 kt too high. But the RAP is pretty close. The RAP still brings a LLJ around 100 kt into the Gulf of Maine tomorrow, so that would give me a few hours midday of 50 kt gusts around the office.

Typically if the coast is going to get high wind warning, we also rip at the office.

I saw you put it up in the last update..

[weatherwiz]

would not be surprised to see some more instances of thunder/lightning over the next few hours ahead of the main surge of rain.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No . Mine is blocked by trees . I live in the woods 

So how would you know what you gusted too?  Not trying to be an ass but if you say you’ll gust to 65 (or whatever), how do you know what it is?  Hear the roar and if branches come down it was 65?

IMO wind is the most over-estimated weather observation out there. There is a lot of tossing locally measured values in favor of the highest measured values elsewhere.

Gusting 40mph in the interior forests is very strong.  That’ll bring down some stuff.  But 60+ seems overblown.  The NWS forecasts look good.  People under-estimate the damage that can occur from 40mph with warm, wet ground.

[Spaizzo]

Cape Lookout recently gusted to 62MPH
Cape Hatteras 61MPH
Wilmington 52MPH
Raleigh 30MPH


.

[Ginx snewx]

58 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually mentioned something very similar in my AFD update. 

The 00z raobs had about 65 kt at 925 at MHX, and 55 kt at WAL. The NAM forecast for the same hour was about 10 kt too high. But the RAP is pretty close. The RAP still brings a LLJ around 100 kt into the Gulf of Maine tomorrow, so that would give me a few hours midday of 50 kt gusts around the office.

Typically if the coast is going to get high wind warning, we also rip at the office.

What is this RRFS-A model

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What is this RRFS-A model

Testing out the merger of the HRRR, HREF, NAM, RAP. Definitely not a final product yet.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

So how would you know what you gusted too?  Not trying to be an ass but if you say you’ll gust to 65 (or whatever), how do you know what it is?  Hear the roar and if branches come down it was 65?

IMO wind is the most over-estimated weather observation out there. There is a lot of tossing locally measured values in favor of the highest measured values elsewhere.

Gusting 40mph in the interior forests is very strong.  That’ll bring down some stuff.  But 60+ seems overblown.  The NWS forecasts look good.  People under-estimate the damage that can occur from 40mph with warm, wet ground.

Beaufort 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Testing out the merger of the HRRR, HREF, NAM, RAP. Definitely not a final product yet.

Thanks that's nutz

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What is this RRFS-A model

Pivotal has had it for a bit.

https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-rrfs/

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Beaufort 

The problem is after a couple of cold ones Beaufort quickly becomes Beerfort.