MANDA Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Getting off and on torrential downpours here. Would do a July or August day proud for intensity / rainfall rates. The bursts of rain have been brief but just shows you the atmosphere is primed for heavy downpours. Someone in NJ west of I-95 sees 6" in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Upon increased the wind advisory area max gust to 55mph now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Upon increased the wind advisory area max gust to 55mph now My point and click wind forecast ticked down from 59 to 57… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: My point and click wind forecast ticked down from 59 to 57… Mine went from 48 to 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: My point and click wind forecast ticked down from 59 to 57… Weather.com ticked down wind for LI as well. Not like it matters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Upton’s latest QPF map has ticked up a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Upton’s latest QPF map has ticked up a little yeah they have me getting 2-3” tonight followed by another 1-2” tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 18Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Getting some thunder now. It’s been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 48 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: The funny part is that reading about 2-4, 3-6, up to as much as 7, on December 17th, if I just stumbled in here I would be sure we were talking about snow totals. Looks like we're going to be thisclose to getting our new obligatory, irritating, annual Christmas week 60 degree reading tomorrow. What is it about the annual solstice torch that just keeps repeating year after year? Fluke coincidence it must be or is there something else systematic here going on that gives this such a high degree of consistency and predictability? I mean, what are the odds? Coming from a relative layman here in the weather forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Was getting coffee around 11am and was already experiencing flooding from the hackensack river. Once storm actually gets going over our area, could be really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, Cfa said: Getting some thunder now. It’s been a while. If only you had put an 's' in that sad empty space between 'thunder' and 'now.' When I first read it, my mind tried so hard to imagine it there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 22 minutes ago, Cfa said: Getting some thunder now. It’s been a while. Same was actually pretty loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 The funny part is that reading about 2-4, 3-6, up to as much as 7, on December 17th, if I just stumbled in here I would be sure we were talking about snow totals. Looks like we're going to be thisclose to getting our new obligatory, irritating, annual Christmas week 60 degree reading tomorrow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 What is it about the annual solstice torch that just keeps repeating year after year? Fluke coincidence it must be or is there something else systematic here going on that gives this such a high degree of consistency and predictability? I mean, what are the odds? Coming from a relative layman here in the weather forum. We need to slap the wood paneling on the simulation.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 TBH, radar isn’t all that impressive. I’M JOKING 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 52 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What is it about the annual solstice torch that just keeps repeating year after year? Fluke coincidence it must be or is there something else systematic here going on that gives this such a high degree of consistency and predictability? I mean, what are the odds? Coming from a relative layman here in the weather forum. I think we just notice it more because it happens around the holidays but I don't think the frequency is any greater than any other particular day. Going back to 2014 every December has had at least 1 day >55 between the 19th and the 30th but rarely more than 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 The wave heights of the Carolina’s are nuts. 27 feet at 14 seconds! If that translates up here (it should) this could be a very high impact erosion event. Timing is off however with high tides and peak surge, and obviously the moon phase however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 TBH, radar isn’t all that impressive. I’M JOKING If this was a snow storm - OMG the radar looks terrible in our area, looks like big bust already. Storm cancelled. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The wave heights of the Carolina’s are nuts. 27 feet at 14 seconds! If that translates up here (it should) this could be a very high impact erosion event. Timing is off however with high tides and peak surge, and obviously the moon phase however. Thank goodness. We’d be looking at major flooding area wide at the beaches/back bays at worse timing. Might still be a bad flood event regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: If this was a snow storm - OMG the radar looks terrible in our area, looks like big bust already. Storm cancelled. . Snow storm? Apologies for my ignorance, but what’s that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 TBH, radar isn’t all that impressive. I’M JOKING I hope it’s a bust for us. I don’t want 60 mile per hour wind. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Gfs has over 80 mph gusts for jfk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Double centered structure indicated on GFS would cut off stronger winds after a brief interval late overnite, winds would only continue to be an issue about KISP-east after briefly affecting all regions. Reggie is (a) overdone or (b) will nearly double existing Dec records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I hope it’s a bust for us. I don’t want 60 mile per hour wind. . More often than not these are overhyped wind wise but we don’t have much of an inversion this time to stop the winds from making it to the surface. The low isn’t very consolidated when it gets here which might be our saving grace this time of anything. If there’s some double low structure, much of the high wind might be kept offshore or be brief. But instead that might increase the heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 26,000 meters without power in the Carolinas now... that's about 55,000 people. 0.21 in the part of Wantage. 1/3rd inch western SC and near 0.4 parts of the e slopes of the Catskills. Good start. Thanks for the MT Holly post on the expected flooding. I checked OKX/BOX output..similar. Seems a little conservative on moderate, iso major but they have the data and based on their input rainfall/6 hours and past rainfall antecedent. We go with NWS as a good start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: yeah they have me getting 2-3” tonight followed by another 1-2” tomorrow. Same here with the QPF forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 60 kt gusts are now as far north as Diamond Shoals off Cape hatteras. (60 kt = 67-68 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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