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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
mappy

Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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ldub23

ldub23

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EURO weeklies.  Looks like after our current cold snap, it does not go well below normal again until after Christmas.  Through mid January, it is cold.

 

IMG_2113.png

IMG_2114.png

Another  punt. Lets hope the  punt  gets  blocked

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EURO weeklies.  Looks like after our current cold snap, it does not go well below normal again until after Christmas.  Through mid January, it is cold.

 

IMG_2113.png

IMG_2114.png

wow---punting again. We just lost another winter week. Although it looks like it could be doable by Dec 20th

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow---punting again. We just lost another winter week. Although it looks like it could be doable by Dec 20th

We're the Bryan Barker of punting here in the mid Atlantic. 

Anyone remember his broken nose?

I was going to post a pic but it's pretty gruesome. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Just now, Chris78 said:

We're the Bryan Barker of punting here in the mid Atlantic. 

Anyone remember his broken nose?

I was going to post a pic but it's pretty gruesome. 

the MJO models look decent enough but i had a feeling that there was going to be a delay. I still think between Dec 20-25--it will be workable for a threat

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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Another  punt. Lets hope the  punt  gets  blocked

 

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow---punting again. We just lost another winter week. Although it looks like it could be doable by Dec 20th

What punt?

This board has pretty consistently been thinking a cold snap this week and next (with a small chance for a wave Dec 5/6 and a small chance for a second wave Dec 8-12) followed by a warm up before it gets cold again and we head towards peak climo in a moderate nino with some pretty nice analog years.

People need to chill.  Freaking out doesn’t make it snow.  If it did, we would have been dumped on the last 3 years.  All it does is make this board a more miserable place and turn off great posters like Bob Chill.  

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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

This really belongs under current obs, but it is cold tonight folks.  It can still get cold.  RELAX,  plus wining about it does not make it better.  And being nasty about it really is ridiculous.  If we have a cold January we just need a little luck.

The forecast high here is 31° tomorrow and low of 14° tomorrow night!  I take, although I will be sitting by the wood stove for sure!

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted

Can anyone imagine someone who believes it's not cold enough to snow??????

Our precipitation patterns have changed whereby we are mostly cold and dry or warmer with sprinkles with fleeting troughs racing by to our northwest.

If the future includes a pattern with generous precipitation from the south or southwest, we may get lucky, otherwise.....

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

This really belongs under current obs, but it is cold tonight folks.  It can still get cold.  RELAX,  plus whining about it does not make it better.  And being nasty about it really is ridiculous.  If we have a cold January we just need a little luck.

It would've been nice to see a weak wave slide though with this cold snap. At least get us on the board and start chipping away at the drought. Even with last weeks rain, most areas are still 8 to 10 inches below normal precipitation year to date.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

 

What punt?

This board has pretty consistently been thinking a cold snap this week and next (with a small chance for a wave Dec 5/6 and a small chance for a second wave Dec 8-12) followed by a warm up before it gets cold again and we head towards peak climo in a moderate nino with some pretty nice analog years.

People need to chill.  Freaking out doesn’t make it snow.  If it did, we would have been dumped on the last 3 years.  All it does is make this board a more miserable place and turn off great posters like Bob Chill.  

I always like a good FAKE PUNT!  Like the one FSU pulled against Auburn in the 2014 BCS championship game, that sparked the Seminoles' comeback win!

 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Who decided 384 was the cutoff for model runs, I want to have a friendly “chat” with them tonight about the 18z gfs.

image.thumb.png.a02a41b54d73f4687dcbcdff52a42d68.png

Anything inside 390 hrs is a lock.  It’s a shame we couldn’t have seen  390.  One more frame for chrissake.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
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Posted
7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS with a clipper next week. Would be awesome if a clipper ends up breaking the snowless streak. 

 

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

All the op models have it. Maybe this is the year the Clipper rises from the ashes

Some northern stream energy has consistently been showing up behind those rainstorms. That will be a short range track if it happens.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB RRFS has it near freezing overnight in DCA and 25 Wed. Am.  We were only colder one night last winter on Feb. 4.

IMG_2118.png

DCA below freezing before Dec is a perhaps a harbinger of a cold snowy winter.  Yes I’m saying there’s a chance.  

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