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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
mappy

Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wow, so basically this "can kicking its time to punt all of January" is turning out to be like 48 hours of "can kicking."  I hope the debs can handle it.

Your confidence is something still two weeks away is more than mine, especially after what I've seen. I certainly wouldn't be planning parades and victory laps yet. I would term myself as very cautiously optimistic but skeptical. Hopefully, it''s actually real this time.

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paulythegun

paulythegun

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, stormy said:

I'm not looking that "hard" as the parameters will likely be completely different tomorrow.  But in reality, the model is arguing against itself by painting snow at +3C.

If a model has 15 members out of 50 with a coastal storm with a nice track 300 hours out and 35 members with random stuff (like cutters), then the MEAN temperature is going to be worse than useless. It's going to be misleading! even if the temps were colder, it wouldn't mean much of anything because that could just relate to the timing of the cutter and associated cold front passage. think about 50 separate storms and how they average out on an ensemble map. it's like if someone said, "Well, the ensemble only has a 1000mb mean low pressure reading off the coast 300 hours out, that's not a very strong coastal storm, it's saying it's going to be a weak storm." No it's not! that's the average across a spatial domain!

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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

If a model has 15 members out of 50 with a coastal storm with a nice track 300 hours out and 35 members with random stuff (like cutters), then the MEAN temperature is going to be worse than useless. It's going to be misleading! even if the temps were colder, it wouldn't mean much of anything because that could just relate to the timing of the cutter and associated cold front passage. think about 50 separate storms and how they average out on an ensemble map. it's like if someone said, "Well, the ensemble only has a 1000mb mean low pressure reading off the coast 300 hours out, that's not a very strong coastal storm, it's saying it's going to be a weak storm." No it's not! that's the average across a spatial domain!

All the debs who doubt the ensembles overall 500 depictions 10-14 days out are often the same folks that think models’ projected temps must be 100% accurate from 10-30 days out.  

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Your confidence is something still two weeks away is more than mine, especially after what I've seen. I certainly wouldn't be planning parades and victory laps yet. I would term myself as very cautiously optimistic but skeptical. Hopefully, it''s actually real this time.

It’s hard to be overly optimistic when the 540 line at 174 is no where in the US.  Even Maine.  It’s the op sure but that doesn’t foster much confidence.  

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CAPE said:

You do realize that is the mean of 30 individual members... no, probably not.

Your late....................... I absolutely know this is an ensemble of 30 members . These 30 members need to get their act together.  Perhaps the resolution is bland, but this is not good. This thread of people are obsessive with details of 5, 10 and 30 days into the future. How can you rationalize this kind of crap when so many are instructed to only listen to the GEFS and throw out the deterministic GFS.

Maybe we should we throw out the GEFS??????

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, stormy said:

Your late....................... I absolutely know this is an ensemble of 30 members . These 30 members need to get their act together.  Perhaps the resolution is bland, but this is not good. This thread of people are obsessive with details of 5, 10 and 30 days into the future. How can you rationalize this kind of crap when so many are instructed to only listen to the GEFS and throw out the deterministic GFS.

Maybe we should we throw out the GEFS??????

CAPE : Please don't believe that I have any personal animosity toward you. I guess that I just have a personal expectation for a model or ensemble to focus on details accurately. When they don't, I don't like.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, stormy said:

CAPE : Please don't believe that I have any personal animosity toward you. I guess that I just have a personal expectation for a model or ensemble to focus on details accurately. When they don't, I don't like.

Emotions are irrelevant in this here thread. Take it to the thread of Panic.

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
An overreaction occurs when around Hudson is +10 to 15 with failure to realize that air mass is still 20 to 25F

Bingo. +10 in Canada in January is still quite cold. Eastern Canada is “torched” is a wildly inaccurate representation of what that shows. Departure from average maps are not the same as temp maps. It can be +10 in eastern Canada and be negative here


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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Emotions are irrelevant in this here thread. Take it to the thread of Panic.

I have absolutely no panic. I am simply disappointed that so much of what the best and brightest in the meterological world base their assumptions on is so corrupted. No wonder their wrong more than 50% of the time.  We should expect better.

Of course, considering the world we live in, it is almost certain.

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
On 12/15/2023 at 12:07 AM, cbmclean said:

I thought El Nino vs La Nina was modulated by the PDO as opposed to the AMO.

PDO and AMO have historically, gone through cyclical phases in the last few decades. This makes both of them modulate indexes vs global warming. It may be a coincidence, but since this latest +AMO phase started in 1995, we have seen 15 La Nina's, and 9 El Nino's (including current one). I do think that in the 2nd half of this +AMO phase, the El Nino's will catch up. 

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