December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

Euro still has some nice snow for favored areas and some flakes down to dc 

[TSSN+]

6z Nam is pretty sexy. I’d give up my left nut for something like this. Lol
 

 

[TSSN+]

Gfs definitely looking more and more better too. 

[winter_warlock]

Gfs has me here jn central MD getting tagged with over 2.5 inches of rain!! Gonna be a wet one boys!!!   I got my rain guage ready !! 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

6z Nam is pretty sexy. I’d give up my left nut for something like this. Lol
 

 

Love to see that creep just a touch east than were in business  !!

[Ji]

Gfs with a 97-98 type noreaster next week

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Gfs with a 97-98 type noreaster next week

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

But then the 6z GFS also shows a storm missing to the south a few days before Christmas….

Right where we want it at this range for now according to my handbook….

[Eskimo Joe]

^big west coast ridge and banana high over Quebec. Classic. Too bad its weeks out. If we get Christmas snow this year, and Christmas snow that covers the grass, it'll be amazing.

[AtlanticWx]

70% chance of >1" btw

[Benjamn3]

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

But then the 6z GFS also shows a storm missing to the south a few days before Christmas….

Right where we want it at this range for now according to my handbook….

As a member of the SW VA delegation, I’m locking that one in. 

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

But then the 6z GFS also shows a storm missing to the south a few days before Christmas….

Right where we want it at this range for now according to my handbook….

There is a hint for something on the GEFS. Verbatim on the mean there is a little snow over S/Central VA. That ridge over Atlantic Canada is problematic, but this is a snapshot on a LR mean and in reality there will be waves moving through the flow/interacting. Starting to see the trough over Alaska shift into a more favorable spot the last few runs, with height lines building northward downstream.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I sure hope the models showing snow with the next system are correct but … that setup? It does and can happen but it’s like the Wizards winning. 

[stormy]

L.p. is about 100 miles east of the benchmark, but the general synoptic is workable with the banana h.p. to the north.

7.5 inches at my location is much more realistic that 4 inches with L.p. over Morgantown.

[CAPE]

The majority of GEFS members have at least one southern stream system tracking up and off the SE/MA coast in the 17-23rd period. A few have more of an inland track. That general idea is characteristic of a Nino. It's not a high probability setup for snow primarily because cold air availability is lacking in the pattern as advertised. That said more members than not have normal or below normal temps for the MA/SE during that window. Should there be a storm, higher terrain areas further inland would clearly be favored for frozen.

[Chris78]

Looks like the 6z euro held serve for Sunday night?

[WinterWxLuvr]

15 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looks like the 6z euro held serve for Sunday night?

Map?

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Map?

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Map?

All I have is the TT maps which doesn't show alot.  Going off of precip maps and 850s it looks similar to 00z

[Terpeast]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’d take it

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’d take it

5" in the Catoctins lol

There's alot of terrain west of Hagerstown. Wonder why there's a snow hole there?

Mt psu gets a couple inches. Winter is saved!

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

5" in the Catoctins lol

There's alot of terrain west of Hagerstown. Wonder why there's a snow hole there?

Mt psu gets a couple inches. Winter is saved!

Maybe its trying to resolve downsloping and upslope. Probably not correct verbatim, but if it was, I’d get a couple inches as well

[EastCoast NPZ]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Perfect.  Just perfect.

[CAPE]

Time for a thread? This event is in the short range now and multi-faceted with heavy rain/wind, snow inland.

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Time for a thread? This event is in the short range now and multi-faceted with heavy rain/wind, snow inland.

Started a thread here to add discussion for the event.  Getting us ready for our January HECS.

[mattie g]

11 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

people forget that jet extensions lead to +PNA. we want those

jet retractions are associated with La Niña and -PNA

 

10 hours ago, CAPE said:

An extended Pacific jet is associated with a +PNA. The specific N-S location also has an influence.

Sounds to me like you're both saying some folks should read more and post less.

[WinterWxLuvr]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Time for a thread? This event is in the short range now and multi-faceted with heavy rain/wind, snow inland.

Yay

[jayyy]

Sounds to me like you're both saying some folks should read more and post less.

Why would someone want to do that when they can just take every possible opportunity to be a deb and attempt to fulfill their no snow prophecy?

Kidding, of course.

There is a TON of great knowledge shared on here by folks like CAPE, PSU, etc.. I know I’ve personally learned so much just by shutting up and consuming as much info as possible.


.

[LeesburgWx]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Loudoun Special 

[SnowenOutThere]

@psuhoffman I remember last year you talked a lot about how one of your main worries was how there was next to no frozen precip on the north sides of the low. Should we expect that to change in nino years? Using the recent gfs as an example of what you talked about last year. I know it’s December but still a little concerning to see no snow anywhere with a nor easter. 

[WxUSAF]

4th out of last 5 GFS runs with a big phasing/near-phasing coastal D8-11. Hopefully we see that again with some colder air in another few weeks.