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December 2023


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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, about 8-10” of arctic sand here…was a very big disappointment here.  Especially since a blizzard warning was issued here, with forecast of at least double the amount we actually got.   Off to the SW got buried-NJ and NYC.   
 

And it also was coming off the huge disappointment year of 09-10 where the mid Atlantic got absolutely obliterated, and SNE got completely skunked…so we started off with the same general idea on that first significant system…so it was spooky, and a lot of folks were like WTF…here we go again.    But then Jan ‘11 came a calling. 

People forget it was a damn miracle to get anything from that storm . 2 days prior nothing was forecast . Zip . Was the biggest comeback I’ve seen on modeling inside 72 hrs

Then the nam at 18z came out and buried us (out of nowhere) and the major weather centers tossed it , then then the 18z gfs came out and buried us and I think forecasters were like “holy crap” . They didn’t know what was up . It was madness on the board . I was thankful for the 10” of arctic sand I saw in Framingham . Zip was forecast 2 days prior . Certainly wasn’t here we go again with 10” I mean and I know a bunch of people were dissatisfied I just couldn’t see it 

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5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

To be totally honest Kev, that was me, and I’m still not worried at all.  Normal/average snow for us is a very good chance imo. Decembers usually suck in strong Ninos, so this is not a surprise.  Things will change around. 

Wasn't just you..I said it too.. November was great up north and the calls for a November torch were simply, just because.  It was nothing like last year and several LR "torchy" periods got beat back.  But there is no denying December, particularly the last two weeks for NNE, have been nothing short of a disaster, torch, shit sandwich, whatever you want to call it. The calls for a December torch were right, though I think some were for the wrong reason..but right is right.  We can easily still get to normal snowfall totals and up north, it can change really quickly.  I prefer to be optimistic, especially in late December.  

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s been quite a bit of snow talk and models showing snow interior SNE away from s coast. It’s been on and off on all models and not just north of 90

We had one day of favorable modeling but it never was anything big.  As many have said, no cold anywhere.  Plenty of fog though….

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This 18z euro panel shows just how close of a miss the weekend system is to being something way better. If that northern stream shortwave comes in just a little further west (maybe 100 mi if that), then you get a phase a probably a nice interior Nuke…but instead it’s a close miss. 
 

IMG_9979.png.0283cc6428550cf43ab48169c76a2944.png

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

This 18z euro panel shows just how close of a miss the weekend system is to being something way better. If that northern stream shortwave comes in just a little further west (maybe 100 mi if that), then you get a phase a probably a nice interior Nuke…but instead it’s a close miss. 
 

IMG_9979.png.0283cc6428550cf43ab48169c76a2944.png

A few runs we were getting a partial phase so precip was enhanced with the SLP near LI pulling the colder air down to the coast and potential was there for some of the modeled higher precip totals, Some of today's runs ran that s/w out ahead of the one in the ohio valley leaving a torched BL and lighter precip, 12z Euro was a bit better but still out ahead so it was late, Still need to watch it.

658b79f2e4472.png

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8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Strawman though…lots of seasons (eps El Niño seasons) made good comebacks without being as prolific as 2015….do we think ‘57-58, ‘65-‘66, ‘66-‘67, ‘02-03 (coastline), ‘12-‘13 (coastline) were all meh winters because we didn’t get 100” in 3 weeks like 2014-15?

Most Decembers between 1979 and the year 2000. Sure
… not sure why we’re using a bad December as a metric for the rest of the year based on our climate is all I’m saying

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4 hours ago, weathafella said:

JD, 2009-10 was disappointing but didn’t your location get it good on 12/19/09?  Totals for the the year here were about 20% below normal but NYC south especially BWI/DC got buried.

Nope…that was the Virga storm here….snowed for hrs but couldn’t break through the dry air over here…so frustrating the amount of precip we wasted to that.  Ended up with like 6-8” I think. Groton and New London/SE corner of CT had a great storm with that though.  Think they got 20” or even a bit more. No virga for them there. 

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