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10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I can’t wait for the next warm month so I can hear you guys talk about how much you wish for a -2 month like this one will be :)

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good night for the Tree!

Another endless summer pattern in September or October transitioning to a little below average in November. 
 

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Tonight will be fair and unseasonably cold. New York City will very likely see its first freeze of the season. After a brisk but dry day tomorrow, clouds will increase on Sunday and it will turn somewhat milder. A system will bring rain to the region Sunday night into Monday. Most areas should see 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Philadelphia will likely see lesser amounts.

The remainder of November will should be generally colder than normal with a reinforcing shot of cold air near the end of the month. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely. Conditions should also be mainly dry through the remainder of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño.

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.019 today.

On November 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The November 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.470 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (1.9° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

 

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Down to 39 already with strong north wind. Nyc definitely hits 32 tonight 

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLEAR     39  19  44 N10G21    30.26R WCI  32
LaGuardia Arpt PTCLDY    40  21  46 NW20G30   30.23R WCI  30
Kennedy Intl   PTCLDY    39  21  48 NW23G31   30.23R WCI  28
Newark Liberty PTCLDY    40  20  44 N25G31    30.24R WCI  29
Teterboro Arpt CLEAR     37  19  48 NW14G21   30.24R WCI  28
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     37  21  52 NW13G24     N/A  WCI  29
Queens College   N/A     39  21  48 NW17G33     N/A  WCI  30
Breezy Point     N/A     41 N/A N/A N22G29      N/A
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     39  21  48 N17G29      N/A  WCI  30
Staten Island    N/A     39  21  48 N16G29
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38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Down to 39 already with strong north wind. Nyc definitely hits 32 tonight 

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLEAR     39  19  44 N10G21    30.26R WCI  32
LaGuardia Arpt PTCLDY    40  21  46 NW20G30   30.23R WCI  30
Kennedy Intl   PTCLDY    39  21  48 NW23G31   30.23R WCI  28
Newark Liberty PTCLDY    40  20  44 N25G31    30.24R WCI  29
Teterboro Arpt CLEAR     37  19  48 NW14G21   30.24R WCI  28
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     37  21  52 NW13G24     N/A  WCI  29
Queens College   N/A     39  21  48 NW17G33     N/A  WCI  30
Breezy Point     N/A     41 N/A N/A N22G29      N/A
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     39  21  48 N17G29      N/A  WCI  30
Staten Island    N/A     39  21  48 N16G29

Yea just thinking the same. It feels wintry tonight.

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8 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

+.8, +2.5, -2…the endless summer 2023 :)

Just went below freezing again. Hopefully NYC does it tonight!

The warmest temperatures of the whole season came in September this year. Plus we had record heat in late October. Since the 1991-2020 climate normals have warmed so much, we can still have a top 20 warmest summer with only a +0.3 departure at Islip.

 

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Season
2023 93 90 91 96 91 97 85 97


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2022 74.6 0
- 2020 74.6 0
3 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0
6 2019 73.8 0
7 2021 73.7 0
8 2018 73.5 0
- 2005 73.5 0
9 2013 73.4 0
10 2012 73.3 0
- 1991 73.3 0
11 2015 73.2 0
- 1980 73.2 0
12 1994 73.0 0
- 1966 73.0 0
13 2008 72.9 0
- 1995 72.9 0
14 2006 72.8 0
- 1998 72.8 0
15 2002 72.7 0
- 1973 72.7 0
16 2023 72.6 0
- 1993 72.6 0
- 1988 72.6 0
17 2014 72.5 0
- 1983 72.5 0
18 1969 72.4 0
19 2017 72.2 0
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At least the first 32F for the 23-24 cool season is accomplished, 12 days later than the mean of 11/13 in the POR dating back to 1869. 

Now to monitor for Tuesday CP ASOS flurry? as the second back side EPS short wave coming across us later that day looks pretty strong. Sfc-500MB lapse rates should be large and if enough moisture convergence and R1 RH above 50%, we'll get some flurries onto LI.

I'm pretty sure of scattered I84 dusting accums in the higher terrain. 

 

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The last 6 days of November are averaging  40degs.(35/45) or -4.

Month to date is  48.4[-0.5].    November should end at  46.7[-1.4].

Reached 50 yesterday at 2pm.

Today:  38-42, wind nw., few clouds, 35 tomorrow AM.

32*(52%RH) here at 6am.    40* at Noon.     Reached 47* at 3pm.

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