Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 18z euro further west at Hr90. It would definitely bring rain into the area if it went out further 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro further west at Hr90. It would definitely bring rain into the area if it went out further yeah, think the 12z was a blip run.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 18z Euro at 90 hours Precip shield is further west than 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Another cool night, down to 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 For shits and giggles here is the 06z NAM for the weekend thru 18z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 51 which is the coolest of the month here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 61 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 53F Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Still a bit of model spread for the weekend. While all models give us a decent rain, the CMC is stronger and further north. Guess more people would be paying attention if this was a winter forecast with P-type issues. CMC more of a stronger inland runner than the GFS and Euro. The CMC has really been holding steady compared to the other models. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 We might salvage Sunday as this costal storm is becoming more of a Saturday storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 I think we should pay a lot of attention to which models are going to be spot on. Will give us insight this winter. This is a very winter-esque storm. I also like to see these types of storm starting to form in the fall. It gives me hope for the upcoming winter pattern. It has been sorely lacking in recent years with most of our storms cutting west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We might salvage Sunday as this costal storm is becoming more of a Saturday storm It should have some subtropical characteristics. The region off the SE coast is very warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I think we should pay a lot of attention to which models are going to be spot on. Will give us insight this winter. This is a very winter-esque storm. I also like to see these types of storm starting to form in the fall. It gives me hope for the upcoming winter pattern. It has been sorely lacking in recent years with most of our storms cutting west. The CMC has probably been the most improved model in recent years relative to what it used to be. Its big coup was being the first model to see the great snowstorm at the end of January 2021 from a week out. The CMC did better with Lee than the Euro did. But each new storm can be different as to which model does best. The Euro snuck in a win with the wetter forecast for NJ on Monday. So this is a bit of trial and error until AI can correct the models for us. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 49 here. Lowest of the early fall season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We might salvage Sunday as this costal storm is becoming more of a Saturday storm The low is still there on Sunday with showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 66degs.(59/72) or -1. EURO is 0.5", CMC/GFS are 4.0" over the weekend. On another note>>>GFS starts October in the 80's---normal is 70/69. Reached 76 yesterday at 5pm. Today: 72-76, wind nw., few clouds, 60 tomorrow AM . 61*(70%RH) here at 7am. 64* at 9am. 67* at Noon. 73* at 3pm. 78* at 5pm. Reached 79* at 5:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 51 my low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 49 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 everyone's record lows are safe for another year 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 06z euro weak and east…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 06z euro weak and east…. The good ole Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Might be starting to see a consensus towards east/weaker...GFS is going that way too. CMC steadfast with a move NNW into upstate NY 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Might be starting to see a consensus towards east/weaker...GFS is going that way too. CMC steadfast with a move NNW into upstate NY There's basically 3 camps. Cmc/icon/nam vs gfs/ukie and the euro is kind of alone showing a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 9/19 EWR: 77 LGA: 76 JFK: 76 ACY: 76 New Bnswck: 75 BLM: 74 ISP: 74 TEB:74 PHL: 74 TTN:72 NYC:72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/19/2023 at 10:31 AM, Stormlover74 said: Gfs all alone south and east of the other models? What could go wrong Well now I stan for Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: There's basically 3 camps. Cmc/icon/nam vs gfs/ukie and the euro is kind of alone showing a scraper Not that it is a real model, but the Navy is pretty wet as well considering it always seems to be progressive with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 did anyone look before dawn in the eastern sky how bright venus looked.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/17/2023 at 12:56 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said: The pattern is transitioning into fall. And yes in a very short time-frame we've gone from tracking Lee to tracking the arrival of an autumn air mass into the Great Lakes. The models are struggling. A few days ago the models were depicting a warm to very warm finish to September and start to October. It does not appear that way now. It could change again but I wouldn't bet on it. The endless summer is going to end. WX/PT Yeah the idea of the whole month of September being warm didn't work out. All of the big September warmth was confined to the first third of the month. For the rest of the month it's just mostly near normal temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Long range nam is a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Long range nam is a nice hit Sure speeds it up-mostly done by 8pm Sat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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