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September 2023


Stormlover74
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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro coming around to the AI models idea of windy and rainy conditions for the eastern half of the forum next weekend with Lee.


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That’s one massive beast. Major coastal impacts likely if that were to occur. Any increased tides, with huge long period swells would mean major beach erosion and washovers. We really need to stay away from the wind field to prevent that scenario. Regardless moderate beach erosion is almost a lock. The enormous fetch area aimed at us, will likely cause the largest swell since Bill 09. (Of course not Including storms that directly impacted us like Irene and Sandy)

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24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This reminds me of Henri. The hurricane models are starting to show the hook back west into New England.

We would probably need some westward corrections to track next few days to get the heavy rains back to around NYC like we saw with Henri. So far the block showing up for next weekend isn’t quite as strong as that. But we’ll see what shorter term model trends emerge this week. 

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would probably need some westward corrections to track next few days to get the heavy rains back to around NYC like we saw with Henri. So far the block showing up for next weekend isn’t quite as strong as that. But we’ll see what shorter term model trends emerge this week. 

 

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Crazy 10 days that was think I got like close to 20” of rain in that span

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12 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Crazy 10 days that was think I got like close to 20” of rain in that span

Yeah that was some block over SE Canada. It does look like the block is correcting stronger for next weekend. But still not quite as strong as a few years ago.

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6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I think @wdrag is going to be spot on with some of his concerns in his previous posts regarding this weeks rainfall and flooding potential. Some places have picked up a good amount of rain already

9/11: not a good day

 

Probably not posting after 9A today til Tuesday night... but for what its worth over 5" last night in extreme sw NJ and 4" NYS mesonet week total just n of NYC.  

I'm seeing a fair amount of FFW's without watch past couple of days. Note sure what that is about. For me its's AWARENESS. That helps in difficult situations. 

Most of us will be near 2" by 00z/15 except maybe less e LI.  however, looks to me like spotty 6" CT/NYS/e PA/NJ with isolated 10" still possible dependent on what happens this afternoon-eve and then the Wednesday bands of heavy rain.  Always uncertainty but not benign, in my mind. 

Interesting Lee tendency on the 15th-16th... probably just a scraper for coastal New England with northerly winds and some rain, this per WPC and modeling. Still a worthy monitoring situation and I don't want to look at 23rd yet.

Walt. 719A/11

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The next 8 days are averaging   73degs.(66/81) or +3.

Reached 85 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  78-82, wind ne., m. cloudy, on-off Rain, 71 tomorrow AM.

73*(99%RH) here at 7am.     76* at 9am.     79*  at Noon.       80* at 2pm.      81* at 3:30pm.      Reached 84* at 5pm  with H.I. of 92.

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19 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

we shall see...my area only picked up about an inch in our 3 days of rain..rather meh...considering we had basically nothing in 10 days before that

 

luckily timing was great for the game yesterday with the storms rolling through before we started tailgaiting for the ru game but not during or during the game

Glad you had a good time at the game…

Big test coming up against VT 

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