doncat Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 Last three days high temps of 88,88 and 89.... close but still no 90's this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 1 hour ago, steve392 said: What is it with the Baltimore region that storms just explode down there as they move east/northeast? the orioles are playing 5 sigma above climatology, poorly modeled ofc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 i think most people in a band from cnj through nyc and li get 2-4" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 the writing is on the wall imo. the hrrr is aggressive with amounts here and yet its early frames aren't aggressive enough in pa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: the writing is on the wall imo. the hrrr is aggressive with amounts here and yet its early frames aren't aggressive enough in pa am i crazy or is the action more north than forecast thusfar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said: am i crazy or is the action more north than forecast thusfar the heaviest rates in pa are headed right for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: the orioles are playing 5 sigma above climatology, poorly modeled ofc Very surprised how well your orioles are playing. My mets on the other hand... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 22 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: am i crazy or is the action more north than forecast thusfar It's going to be north of here. Current radar and HRRR reflect that Stuff in PA also has an ENE component favoring northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's going to be north of here. Current radar and HRRR reflect that Stuff in PA also has an ENE component favoring northern areas There does look to be a very sharp cutoff around the Union Middlesex border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Please no. I think we had 12+” of rain in a matter of hours. Yup. That was a record. I was the only one in my office. Several coworkers had totaled cars. It was foot of rain. Never seen anything like it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been havingLiterally dealing with this nowYellow jacket nest under siding. They are getting spicy so can’t go near it. Exterminator coming tomorrowAnd just today, a wasp species built a mud mound on my front lawn. I’m being attacked over here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, justinj said: Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having It’s probably because we’ve had a quite a few premature cool nights this month. Plenty of nights with lows in the 50’s. Tricking them into thinking it’s September already. That’s when they start going nuts because they can sense the end is near. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Yup. That was a record. I was the only one in my office. Several coworkers had totaled cars. It was foot of rain. Never seen anything like it. . The lakes in brightwaters became one with the concourse canal. Literally raging rapids 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: Literally dealing with this now Yellow jacket nest under siding. They are getting spicy so can’t go near it. Exterminator coming tomorrow And just today, a wasp species built a mud mound on my front lawn. I’m being attacked over here . The mud nest is a mud dauber. Mostly harmless. They nest alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, justinj said: Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having YES! same here. Yellowjacket nest under the concrete slab of my front porch. The swarm when I walk by or water the flower pots. Don’t want to kill them but getting annoying. Only the first frost will end this. Know what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: There does look to be a very sharp cutoff around the Union Middlesex border That's what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Rain and thunderstorms are likely tonight. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with locally higher amounts of up to 3.00". Tomorrow will again see readings near or somewhat above normal before slightly cooler air moves into the region. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event is underway. Numerous daily and monthly records fell. Records included: Eugene: 103° (old record: 101°, 2010) Hillsboro, OR: 107° (old record: 101°, 1953 and 2008) ***New August record*** Portland: 108° (old record: 102°, 2008) ***New August record*** Salem: 105° (old record: 102°, 1942) Troutdale, OR: 110° (old record: 101°, 2008) ***New August record*** Vancouver, WA: 108° (old record: 102°, 2008) ***New August record*** The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +3.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.774 today. On August 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.113 (RMM). The August 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.227 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's going to be north of here. Current radar and HRRR reflect that Stuff in PA also has an ENE component favoring northern areas the best cape is over southern areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Literally dealing with this now Yellow jacket nest under siding. They are getting spicy so can’t go near it. Exterminator coming tomorrow And just today, a wasp species built a mud mound on my front lawn. I’m being attacked over here . The ones in my backyard aren’t nesting they’re just hovering around im assuming looking for food Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Rain thunderstorms and a brief spin up and flooding? I’ll be up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, justinj said: Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having I have yellow jackets all the time in my apartment as do my nextdoor neighbors. We are attributing it to an abundance of construction going on next door to us on our block where an 8 story building is going up. Yellow jackets can deliver a mean sting which is worse if you're allergic. I have not been stung yet. They do not live long once they're indoors. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Rain thunderstorms and a brief spin up and flooding? I’ll be up max amounts on the href approach 7". someone's getting that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: max amounts on the href approach 7". someone's getting that If you’re all in then I have to be up to witness it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 39 minutes ago, justinj said: Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having There was a huge bald faced hornet hive in my yard earlier this summer but we got it taken out. I also saw some cicada killers flying around and they were absolutely gigantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 19 minutes ago, forkyfork said: max amounts on the href approach 7". someone's getting that If that materializes there will be severe flooding. Especially if it were to fall along and north of 78 as that area is already rather waterlogged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Rather the bulk goes just north of us...I'll take the gamble on some surface based convection... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 01z HRRR is a crush job for the metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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