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July 2023


Stormlover74
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47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep the big hot summer is going poof...yes above normal for July but big long lasting heat has not been there this year...and even this heat is not that impressive east of the city...might be near 90 here a couple of days which is nothing unusual for late July.  Friday looks like the hottest day-Sat/Sun it really drops off esp north and east of the city

1690653600-sGK5i8O9lPo.png

Warmest departures this month to our north in Maine and along the Southern Tier.

44D56419-B4B8-450E-8E59-075B96E79A67.thumb.png.7bedb4afd2feafb7e32bd1a618096600.png

 

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5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Obviously we're gonna have pretty good heat for a few days and Friday's heat looks impressive, but it isn't gonna last too long. Looks like a beautiful airmass coming in next Monday. Should be very low humidity and overall most of that week looks pretty comfortable. 

I'm not sure yet of how beautiful it will be if the northwesterly flow next week sends us another round of smoke and haze from the Canadian wildfires.  Something to watch at least.

As long as it's not as bad as it was during early June!

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5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Obviously we're gonna have pretty good heat for a few days and Friday's heat looks impressive, but it isn't gonna last too long. Looks like a beautiful airmass coming in next Monday. Should be very low humidity and overall most of that week looks pretty comfortable. 

Low 80s with dews in the 50s would be amazing especially after near triple digits Friday 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Looks like the Euro may be showing too much onshore flow again near Newark Thursday into Friday. Those highs near Philly would probably make it to around Newark. Early Saturday looks like a compressional warming event ahead of the cold front.

8606AA24-2E3B-436F-84DA-0583A0AC987A.thumb.png.9abc659ff8472150ac5e41590a7ce4d0.png
A2F85534-224C-40E8-9E0D-141E10AD7BED.thumb.png.aa7f94eb478766e01b945a9e85124394.png

3560B0E2-4D40-4903-99EF-144E80F87D68.thumb.png.125bd2b7da77e5164f36778c9a7982ca.png

Does this get into orh and boston? 

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Warm weather will continue through tomorrow. A shower or thunderstorm is possible as warmer air pushes into the region. Afterward, a heatwave is likely in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The humidity could add to the discomfort. At present, the potential heatwave does not appear to be a prolonged affair.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Phoenix reached a record-tying 116°. El Paso rang up its 39th consecutive 100° day.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -22.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.031 today.

On July 22 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.478 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.343 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4° (1.9° above normal).

 

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

87 today.

this week will bring many to 10 90 degree days. Not a cold summer as many predicted

Where do you see that?   Front comes through Saturday and we then cool off...so maybe 4-5 days of 90 depending on locale.   Here maybe 2-3 days.

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

87 today.

this week will bring many to 10 90 degree days. Not a cold summer as many predicted

 

that ne-NJ corridoor will close in on 18 - 20 by Sat.  Jun below normal, Jul warm/humid, Aug will be the determinant on the met summer.

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Remains to be seen where 2023 may fit into this summary: 

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES of YEARS 1869 to 2022 

106 _ 1936

104 _ 1918, 1977, 2011

103 _ 1948, 1966, 2001, 2010

102 _ 1930, 1933, 1944, 1949, 1953, 1980, 1991, 1993, 1995

101 _ 1881, 1934, 1957, 1999

100 _ 1898, 1901, 1911, 1917, 1926, 1937, 1952, 1954, 1955, 2012

 99 _ 1885, 1919, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1929, 1931, 1943, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1983, 1988, 2005

 98 _ 1876, 1879, 1890, 1891, 1896, 1940, 1941, 1963, 1968, 1973, 1975, 1982, 1986, 1994, 2002, 2013, 2021

 97 _ 1892, 1895, 1900, 1912, 1942, 1945, 1959, 1961, 1969, 1987, 1997, 2006, 2015, 2022

 96 _ 1872, 1880, 1887, 1888, 1894, 1905, 1908, 1921, 1932, 1938, 1939, 1967, 1971, 1976, 1981, 1984, 1989, 1996, 2008, 2016, 2018, 2020

 95 _ 1869, 1883, 1893, 1899, 1903, 1913, 1914, 1916, 1935, 1947, 1950, 1965, 1974, 1978, 1979, 1985, 1990, 2019

 94 _ 1870, 1873, 1878, 1886, 1904, 1906, 1910, 1915, 1920, 1922, 1928, 1946, 1951, 1970, 1972, 2003, 2017

 93 _ 1874, 1875, 1882, 1897, 1909, 1958, 1992, 1998, 2000 (2023 so far)

 92 _ 1871, 1877, 1907, 1927, 2007, 2009, 2014

 91 _ 1884, 1889, 1960, 2004

 90 _ 1902

 

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