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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


BxEngine
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8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

My oldest son lives in Grapevine where its currently 103/74 with a heat index of 116.  The wife and I don't visit there this time of year...

Amazing Rob. The youngster could actually visit you this time of year just to cool off. Stay well, as always ….

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5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it all comes down to wether we get the nino blockbuster. Feb 83, Jan 16. But others 97/98 and 72/73 were fails. One thing that’s almost certain, it will be above normal temp wise 

What are the things that lead to the cold east coast* Nino outcomes of years like 2014? Looking at 40/70 Benchmark's composites on another thread it appeared as if a strong Nino could still have a cold eastern seaboard outcome at H5, but I know there's a lot of variability. Is that when sort of all other metrics are aligned to blast cold into the east continually?

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5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What are the things that lead to the cold east Nino outcomes of years like 2014? Looking at 40/70 Benchmark's composites on another thread it appeared as if a strong Nino could still have a cold eastern seaboard outcome at H5, but I know there's a lot of variability. Is that when sort of all other metrics are aligned to blast cold into the east continually?

We want the warmest water anomalies to be in the central Pacific not on the coast of Peru. That causes the strongest forcing to focus over the central Pacific and troughs to be more favored in the East. That’s called a Modoki or basinwide Nino. An east based strong Nino would likely be very warm for us like 97-98. 

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46 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i was looking at accuweather long range nyc forecast and it shows some nice comfortable weather around the 6 of august for a few days.. something to look forward to...

I’m looking at that right now and it’s showing a shocking amount of 50’s lows for August. Have a hard time believing that becomes reality. Even mid 60’s seems difficult anymore in peak summer. 

I don’t watch the models as much this time of year as I do in winter, so not sure what they’re showing a few weeks out. Not that it really matters that far anyway. 
 

Still, dreams are nice :D.

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4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m looking at that right now and it’s showing a shocking amount of 50’s lows for August. Have a hard time believing that becomes reality. Even mid 60’s seems difficult anymore in peak summer. 

I don’t watch the models as much this time of year as I do in winter, so not sure what they’re showing a few weeks out. Not that it really matters that far anyway. 
 

Still, dreams are nice :D.

Just like the 100s for late month fizzled out I'll just expect more of the same with occasional breaks

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3 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Little bumpy over the atlantic on our flight to Aruba, past most of it now. Be a shame if saturday’s weather sucks and i get stuck there another night……

Went there for my 20th Anniversary in late March.  It was my first time there.  Loved it and can't wait to go back.

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13 hours ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

We got hit with a microburst yesterday that knocked out power to about 2500 residence yesterday for over 10 hours. 

She is a politician so she is obviously an expert. I guess there were never Thunderstorms, Blizzards, Heat Waves before the 20th century, I'm so glad she cleared things up for me.

 

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45 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how does a weather forum have so many climate change deniers

Good afternoon forky. You might also ask this question …. How many of the  c c d’s you’ve mentioned have mitigated or done away with their original position because of the contributions of the posters that they share the forum with? Stay well, as always ….

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A remote volcano in Papau New Guinea named Bagana just had a stealthy moderately large explosive eruption. 

 

https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=255020

Bagana is interesting because it potentially is the “offspring” of a very large neighboring caldera with the odd name of Billy Mitchell, which had an extremely powerful explosive eruption somewhere around the 16th century. Climate impacting, potentially a contributor during the LIA. Bagana is extremely young and extremely productive, apparently the majority of the edifice grew after Billy Mitchell’s eruption and could be from the same magma supply, as Billy Mitchell has been silent since then. Bagana erupts fresher, less evolved (explosive) magma than its ‘parent,’ and yet just had a pretty large sub - plinian event with a plume up to 16-18km. It doesn’t appear it was a sustained eruption and was a brief episode of activity, but still that is a substantial eruption and probably larger than anything other than Shiveluch’s big blast this year. 

image.jpeg.839a3c9a9ff8b4fd8b22e1c4e1c1508c.jpeg
 

Bagana lurking in the background behind the large caldera lake of Billy Mitchell. 
 

https://watchers.news/2023/07/15/high-level-eruption-at-bagana-volcano-ash-plume-to-16-4-km-54-000-feet-a-s-l-p-n-g/

 

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10 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

We got hit with a microburst yesterday that knocked out power to about 2500 residence yesterday for over 10 hours. 

She is a politician so she is obviously an expert. I guess there were never Thunderstorms, Blizzards, Heat Waves before the 20th century, I'm so glad she cleared things up for me.

 

giphy.gif

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