rclab Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: My oldest son lives in Grapevine where its currently 103/74 with a heat index of 116. The wife and I don't visit there this time of year... Amazing Rob. The youngster could actually visit you this time of year just to cool off. Stay well, as always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think it all comes down to wether we get the nino blockbuster. Feb 83, Jan 16. But others 97/98 and 72/73 were fails. One thing that’s almost certain, it will be above normal temp wise What are the things that lead to the cold east coast* Nino outcomes of years like 2014? Looking at 40/70 Benchmark's composites on another thread it appeared as if a strong Nino could still have a cold eastern seaboard outcome at H5, but I know there's a lot of variability. Is that when sort of all other metrics are aligned to blast cold into the east continually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: What are the things that lead to the cold east Nino outcomes of years like 2014? Looking at 40/70 Benchmark's composites on another thread it appeared as if a strong Nino could still have a cold eastern seaboard outcome at H5, but I know there's a lot of variability. Is that when sort of all other metrics are aligned to blast cold into the east continually? We want the warmest water anomalies to be in the central Pacific not on the coast of Peru. That causes the strongest forcing to focus over the central Pacific and troughs to be more favored in the East. That’s called a Modoki or basinwide Nino. An east based strong Nino would likely be very warm for us like 97-98. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 9 hours ago, forkyfork said: guys did you know long island hasn't been getting rain Meanwhile up here, yet another Flood Advisory issued with loud thunder moving in...it never ends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 i was looking at accuweather long range nyc forecast and it shows some nice comfortable weather around the 6 of august for a few days.. something to look forward to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 46 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i was looking at accuweather long range nyc forecast and it shows some nice comfortable weather around the 6 of august for a few days.. something to look forward to... I’m looking at that right now and it’s showing a shocking amount of 50’s lows for August. Have a hard time believing that becomes reality. Even mid 60’s seems difficult anymore in peak summer. I don’t watch the models as much this time of year as I do in winter, so not sure what they’re showing a few weeks out. Not that it really matters that far anyway. Still, dreams are nice . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I’m looking at that right now and it’s showing a shocking amount of 50’s lows for August. Have a hard time believing that becomes reality. Even mid 60’s seems difficult anymore in peak summer. I don’t watch the models as much this time of year as I do in winter, so not sure what they’re showing a few weeks out. Not that it really matters that far anyway. Still, dreams are nice . Just like the 100s for late month fizzled out I'll just expect more of the same with occasional breaks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 jungle rot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Very shocking news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Damn that’s way too young. Rest in peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 https://nypost.com/2023/07/16/extreme-weather-could-be-our-new-normal-gov-hochul?utm_source=nypost&utm_campaign=android_nyp&utm_medium=social 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 17, 2023 Author Share Posted July 17, 2023 Little bumpy over the atlantic on our flight to Aruba, past most of it now. Be a shame if saturday’s weather sucks and i get stuck there another night…… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 hours ago, BxEngine said: Little bumpy over the atlantic on our flight to Aruba, past most of it now. Be a shame if saturday’s weather sucks and i get stuck there another night…… Why go in July? Anniversary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Why go in July? Anniversary? Cant miss the incoming blockbuster winter? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 3 hours ago, BxEngine said: Little bumpy over the atlantic on our flight to Aruba, past most of it now. Be a shame if saturday’s weather sucks and i get stuck there another night…… Went there for my 20th Anniversary in late March. It was my first time there. Loved it and can't wait to go back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 13 hours ago, Jacob brooklyn said: https://nypost.com/2023/07/16/extreme-weather-could-be-our-new-normal-gov-hochul?utm_source=nypost&utm_campaign=android_nyp&utm_medium=social We got hit with a microburst yesterday that knocked out power to about 2500 residence yesterday for over 10 hours. She is a politician so she is obviously an expert. I guess there were never Thunderstorms, Blizzards, Heat Waves before the 20th century, I'm so glad she cleared things up for me. 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 how does a weather forum have so many climate change deniers 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 45 minutes ago, forkyfork said: how does a weather forum have so many climate change deniers Good afternoon forky. You might also ask this question …. How many of the c c d’s you’ve mentioned have mitigated or done away with their original position because of the contributions of the posters that they share the forum with? Stay well, as always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Why go in July? Anniversary? it's cheap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's cheap! their offseason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 17, 2023 Author Share Posted July 17, 2023 5 hours ago, Rjay said: Why go in July? Anniversary? Because the temperature here is significantly different any other time of year? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 A remote volcano in Papau New Guinea named Bagana just had a stealthy moderately large explosive eruption. https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=255020 Bagana is interesting because it potentially is the “offspring” of a very large neighboring caldera with the odd name of Billy Mitchell, which had an extremely powerful explosive eruption somewhere around the 16th century. Climate impacting, potentially a contributor during the LIA. Bagana is extremely young and extremely productive, apparently the majority of the edifice grew after Billy Mitchell’s eruption and could be from the same magma supply, as Billy Mitchell has been silent since then. Bagana erupts fresher, less evolved (explosive) magma than its ‘parent,’ and yet just had a pretty large sub - plinian event with a plume up to 16-18km. It doesn’t appear it was a sustained eruption and was a brief episode of activity, but still that is a substantial eruption and probably larger than anything other than Shiveluch’s big blast this year. Bagana lurking in the background behind the large caldera lake of Billy Mitchell. https://watchers.news/2023/07/15/high-level-eruption-at-bagana-volcano-ash-plume-to-16-4-km-54-000-feet-a-s-l-p-n-g/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 10 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: We got hit with a microburst yesterday that knocked out power to about 2500 residence yesterday for over 10 hours. She is a politician so she is obviously an expert. I guess there were never Thunderstorms, Blizzards, Heat Waves before the 20th century, I'm so glad she cleared things up for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 See that BN sliver in the PacNW. "I'll Get You My Sweetie" in the 8-14! Looks like the whole US will be a Cooked Goose. Higher T's but lower RH? for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 I-95 closed in parts of NC due to tornado damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I-95 closed in parts of NC due to tornado damage I see a Pfizer manufacturing plant was damaged from a tornado. I have a few colleagues there that I work with daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 above normal in summer: it's supposed to be hot above normal in winter: it's a bad pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Yay Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yay Twitter Usually things get updated after a decade. Bound to happen eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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