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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


BxEngine
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Sorry BX. The discussion quickly got into current events after someone first mentioned JB.  Always starts with climate change then gets into current events and some bring in politics. Didn’t mean to make your job harder. Will just keep it to weather banter. I don’t really have a political bone in my body but am interested in history, current events, and looking out for the underdog. I just get passionate about underdog type issues since I have been one my whole life. Under my pure weather and climate persona beats the heart of someone really interested in looking out for underrepresented people that don’t much of a voice. But understand that there is a separate OT section. Should probably keep it to personal stories and not society. Much love to all of you good people that make this place possible.

The great thing about this forum is that it gives a voice to many that wouldn’t necessarily get to be heard outside a virtual world. Could not have done all my weather and climate posts without this venue. In the old days, you needed a TV or radio platform to have a voice in topics like this. Now it’s open to everyone that wants to contribute to the field. Wasn’t much for advanced math back in college though I loved everything weather. So wasn’t able to get a meteorology degree. Loved forecasting in weather lab even though the Alden Difax maps were hard to read. Got more interested in statistics later in life. Sorry for the long rant…keep up the great moderating work BX an Rjay..you guys are some of the best in the moderating business.

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No problem man. After losing my mom, things have gotten really tough for me in the so called outside world. Always tried to keep the discussions science based without much emotion. More Dr. Spock-like. Now the emotional side is harder to avoid. Just makes me more human. I love this virtual community since it lacks the stressors of day to day living. It really allows me to create what an ideal me always wanted to be. I have always struggled with various challenges in life through no fault of my own. But sometimes you start surfing the really big sets and it just turns into a washing machine. Getting to my bluewave persona is everything that is good about me. Very hard to express this outside this forum. That’s why I get so passionate about people that really struggle in life. 

Sorry for your loss, Bluewave 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No problem man. After losing my mom, things have gotten really tough for me in the so called outside world. Always tried to keep the discussions science based without much emotion. More Dr. Spock-like. Now the emotional side is harder to avoid. Just makes me more human. I love this virtual community since it lacks the stressors of day to day living. It really allows me to create what an ideal me always wanted to be. I have always struggled with various challenges in life through no fault of my own. But sometimes you start surfing the really big sets and it just turns into a washing machine. Getting to my bluewave persona is everything that is good about me. Very hard to express this outside this forum. That’s why I get so passionate about people that really struggle in life. 

I always knew you were a surfing dude!  You give off that vibe.  I know a lot of them and surfing people are THE BEST people!  East coast, west coast, Hawaii, doesn't matter.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Sorry BX. The discussion quickly got into current events after someone first mentioned JB.  Always starts with climate change then gets into current events and some bring in politics. Didn’t mean to make your job harder. Will just keep it to weather banter.

 Nevertheless, it was refreshing to see that it remained civil, a relative rarity on the internet for that kind of discussion. It was closer to civil discourse than is typical.

 Also, sorry to read about your loss.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Thanks for the kind words. Things have never been easy for me outside this forum. This place doesn’t have all the sensory issues that I have to deal with on a day to day basis. Almost a high functioning type on the spectrum. So this way of communicating and expression really works for me. I am very, kind, quiet and conscientious. But this forum  is much a simpler for me to express myself the way my body and mind processes information. That’s why I am so passionate about underdog and disabled issues. People always asked me why I don’t have a Phd or college professor career. It was all the sensory issues that got in the way. 

Sorry for your loss.  Keep fighting and enjoying the things that bring you peace and happiness.  Wishing you all the best.  

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Thanks for the kind words. Things have never been easy for me outside this forum. This place doesn’t have all the sensory issues that I have to deal with on a day to day basis. Almost a high functioning type on the spectrum. So this way of communicating and expression really works for me. I am very, kind, quiet and conscientious. But this forum  is much a simpler for me to express myself the way my body and mind processes information. That’s why I am so passionate about underdog and disabled issues. People always asked me why I don’t have a Phd or college professor career. It was all the sensory issues that got in the way. 

I suspect that's the case with many of us, since the definition of the spectrum was widened, I believe it may comprise a sizeable minority of people.

 

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Thanks for the kind words. Things have never been easy for me outside this forum. This place doesn’t have all the sensory issues that I have to deal with on a day to day basis. Almost a high functioning type on the spectrum. So this way of communicating and expression really works for me. I am very, kind, quiet and conscientious. But this forum  is much a simpler for me to express myself the way my body and mind processes information. That’s why I am so passionate about underdog and disabled issues. People always asked me why I don’t have a Phd or college professor career. It was all the sensory issues that got in the way. 

You know, I have a relatively high-functioning nephew on the spectrum and I believe that the in-depth forecasts and breakdowns that I read here are better done by someone on the spectrum, from what I can see in him.

Not being on it, I don’t find the joy in diving into the forecasts and creating it, but I do like reading the finished results!

That’s my long-winded way of saying keep up the good work! You have supporters here.


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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

No problem man. After losing my mom, things have gotten really tough for me in the so called outside world. Always tried to keep the discussions science based without much emotion. More Dr. Spock-like. Now the emotional side is harder to avoid. Just makes me more human. I love this virtual community since it lacks the stressors of day to day living. It really allows me to create what an ideal me always wanted to be. I have always struggled with various challenges in life through no fault of my own. But sometimes you start surfing the really big sets and it just turns into a washing machine. Getting to my bluewave persona is everything that is good about me. Very hard to express this outside this forum. That’s why I get so passionate about people that really struggle in life. 

Well, you’re kind of an all star on this forum. So there’s that. 

Dude, I have so many snipped screenshots of your posts it’s honestly a little embarrassing. 

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10 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Well, you’re kind of an all star on this forum. So there’s that. 

Dude, I have so many snipped screenshots of your posts it’s honestly a little embarrassing. 

Thanks for the really kind words. I really enjoy your posts also.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Thanks for the really kind words. I really enjoy your posts also.

I found a new 2023 paper you might enjoy on Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai’s climate impact.  

Spoilers; not good news for winter enthusiasts (myself included). They’re pretty confident in it causing a significant surface warming event for five years at least, possibly putting us “temporarily” over the 1.5C threshold. I will link it here later this afternoon when I return from work. 
 

Regional impacts of these things always vary and our winter was largely pattern driven, but still it may not be the best news. 

Our luck to get an anomalous large eruption that doesn’t cause a brief but sharp cooling episode, which is the first known event to do the reverse instead. 
 

edit: Actually found it easily on my phone, see here:

https://phys.org/news/2023-01-tonga-eruption-chances-global-temperature.amp

Link to the paper at the bottom of the page. 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

A strong El Nino is becoming likely by the summer. 

The spring prediction barrier has not yet passed. I'll be more concerned if the early summer guidance shows such an outcome. It would be a most unpleasant development if we get a 1997-98 winter to follow our non-winter of 2022-2023.

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3 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Frank Field turns 100 tomorrow. The last forecaster of the 60's still alive.

 

May be an image of 1 person, indoor and text that says 'L'

Good morning WX-PA. Wonderful photo. I remember Johnny Carson making fun of Doctor Frank, saying he predicted lava coming out of the too of the Empire State building. One snow storm that was under forecasted resulted in the TV news crew, on air, pelting him with, I believe, styrofoam snow balls. I pray his life still has quality as he continues to live it. Thank you for the photo memory. Stay well, as always ….

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I found a new 2023 paper you might enjoy on Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai’s climate impact.  

Spoilers; not good news for winter enthusiasts (myself included). They’re pretty confident in it causing a significant surface warming event for five years at least, possibly putting us “temporarily” over the 1.5C threshold. I will link it here later this afternoon when I return from work. 
 

Regional impacts of these things always vary and our winter was largely pattern driven, but still it may not be the best news. 

Our luck to get an anomalous large eruption that doesn’t cause a brief but sharp cooling episode, which is the first known event to do the reverse instead. 
 

edit: Actually found it easily on my phone, see here:

https://phys.org/news/2023-01-tonga-eruption-chances-global-temperature.amp

Link to the paper at the bottom of the page. 

aren't volcanoes supposed to block sunlight and cool the temperature, not increase it?

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The spring prediction barrier has not yet passed. I'll be more concerned if the early summer guidance shows such an outcome. It would be a most unpleasant development if we get a 1997-98 winter to follow our non-winter of 2022-2023.

But what if it's not super but instead merely strong, like 1957-58....that would be a good outcome.  2002-03 which was borderline strong would also be a good outcome.   2009-10 was, I believe, between those two

Don, what causes the spring prediction barrier?

 

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

aren't volcanoes supposed to block sunlight and cool the temperature, not increase it?

 

The volcano released a ton of water vapor which traps heat, not so much sulfur which would reflect heat. If we can have a favorable Nino next winter and get rid of the Nina influence we should be better off at least. 

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But what if it's not super but instead merely strong, like 1957-58....that would be a good outcome.  2002-03 which was borderline strong would also be a good outcome.   2009-10 was, I believe, between those two

Don, what causes the spring prediction barrier?

 

Spring (southern Hemisphere autumn) is a transitional time. ENSO events can be decaying. SSTs are shifting. That makes ocean-atmosphere relationships weaker. A general description can be found here:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we’d-rather-be-spring-break

In addition, there has been some promising research that suggests that the use of February-March sea-level pressures improves forecasting skill and reduces the impact of the spring predictability barrier. I don't know whether this research has been operationalized in any of the ENSO models, yet.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

aren't volcanoes supposed to block sunlight and cool the temperature, not increase it?

 

HTHH is the anomaly to that fact. Yes, large explosive eruptions such as Pinatubo release sulfur which converts to sulfate in the stratospheric aerosol veil which ultimately leads to a surface cooling effect. During past episodes of volcanic cooling, there were observations of a persistent dry fog (sulfur) that allowed people on the ground to literally stare directly at the sun and view sunspots unaided with the naked eye. 
 

HTHH was of the correct size to have a similar impact to Pinatubo, however it released an ENORMOUS amount of water vapor as its predominant stratospheric gas flux. The sulfur release was perhaps a bit more than the VEI 4 Soufriere eruption from a couple years ago; not enough to directly overpower the water vapor flux. 

This discrepancy is now explained better by the knowledge that up to two thirds of the erupted volume of HTHH occurred in underwater ignimbrite formation; essentially pyroclastic flows under the surface of the ocean. This would greatly limit the amount of sulfur reaching the stratosphere where it can act in the traditional manner. 

In short, HTHH was a worst case scenario for us and represents the first time a large explosive eruption will likely warm the surface rather than cool it. Pretty bad luck eh?

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And yes, a Niño should represent a better teleconnection configuration for us next winter, but I’ve been following several climate scientists warning how the next strong Niño could put us closer to 1.5C of warming. Now with HTHH in the mix it’s certainly not helping in that regard. There was a recent climate paper discussing this (how the next Niño will likely surge global temps forward, and how the predominantly Niña state of recent years was masking things). 

This of course being from a global perspective and not regional. We will still probably have a better winter, as long as it’s not a torch. 

Also this topic is more your territory guys so I will defer to what you think about this, just reiterating what I’ve read / heard. 

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