rclab Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: This has to be one of my favorite weather short films of the last decade or so. Thank you bluewave. What saddens me is that by 2116 it may be shown and re-titled as ‘A Memory Of Snow.’ Stay well, as always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, rclab said: Thank you bluewave. What saddens me is that by 2116 it may be shown and re-titled as ‘A Memory Of Snow.’ Stay well, as always ….. It’s great to speak with you again. I was born a few days after a famous 1960s KU event. So you can say it’s in my meteorological birth chart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s great to speak with you again. I was born a few days after a famous 1960s KU event. So you can say it’s in my meteorological birth chart. I was in high school and remember that, school is cancelled event . Stay well, as always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Reading through the main thread I see winter has been canceled in record time this year, we didn’t even make it out of July! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 I mean I’ve seen a reasonable amount of optimism regarding winter overall. We’re out of the perma-Niña and there’s a shot of a moderate -> strong basin wide Niño with potentially enhanced western forcing from the WPAC warm pool (as per @bluewave) all of which can be good for East Coast winters. Maybe it still goes super or stays further east based (generally less favorable), but I don’t see any indications that we should be cancelling winter yet. And even with a super we can still get the one off KU a la 2016. I’m rather excited; an average snow season this year would feel like getting buried after the miserable years we’ve had lately. Perhaps we’ll have a relatively mild but snowier winter; most would take that. I may stand alone in hoping for a winter so cold we see a brief resurgence of the Laurentide ice sheet, but I suppose with respect to reality I’ll have to settle for ‘mild and snowier than last year’ . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 guys did you know long island hasn't been getting rain 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 On 7/13/2023 at 9:30 AM, Maureen said: Reading through the main thread I see winter has been canceled in record time this year, we didn’t even make it out of July! Winter 24-25 will rock 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 42 minutes ago, forkyfork said: guys did you know long island hasn't been getting rain Suffolk has been doing great. It’s a Nassau thing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Winter 24-25 will rock What do you think about this winter? Awful or chance of at least decent? Unless we go full torch or locked in +++AO like 19-20 I can’t imagine it’s as bad as last year. Just IMHO. I’d like to see 20 inches at NYC, hopefully at least 15 for me. City is around 29-30 avg, right by me is about 22-24. Maybe one big event + one moderate, perhaps the moderate stays north of me and gets the city. Still bad, but not last year levels of bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: What do you think about this winter? Awful or chance of at least decent? Unless we go full torch or locked in +++AO like 19-20 I can’t imagine it’s as bad as last year. I don’t think it will be as bad as last winter (very hard for it to be worst) but the strength of the Nino makes me nervous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I don’t think it will be as bad as last winter (very hard for it to be worst) but the strength of the Nino makes me nervous Yeah, I agree. Been following the ENSO thread closely. Snowman of course feels we’re going 2.0+ in 3.4 with an east lean, but a lot of others feel it’ll be basin wide and a bit more tempered (below super levels). And then there’s the question of RONI and the WPAC warm pool. IDK, I’m happy with where things sit right now in the sense that it certainly could look worse relative to it being July still. Almost certainly taking another New England hiking trip this winter regardless, can’t imagine I’ll completely shut out of snow in Feb for my bday as I was when I went to Danbury last year for three days. Still some good hiking though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Yeah, I agree. Been following the ENSO thread closely. Snowman of course feels we’re going 2.0+ in 3.4 with an east lean, but a lot of others feel it’ll be basin wide and a bit more tempered (below super levels). And then there’s the question of RONI and the WPAC warm pool. IDK, I’m happy with where things sit right now in the sense that it certainly could look worse relative to it being July still. Plus enso isn’t everything…more importantly it’s the pac and polar vortex strength. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Plus enso isn’t everything…more importantly it’s the pac and polar vortex strength. Definitely man, just that ENSO is one of the easier variables to look at six months out is all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Definitely man, just that ENSO is one of the easier variables to look at six months out is all. I think it all comes down to wether we get the nino blockbuster. Feb 83, Jan 16. But others 97/98 and 72/73 were fails. One thing that’s almost certain, it will be above normal temp wise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 On 7/12/2023 at 3:07 PM, bluewave said: The US population migration patterns are moving in the wrong direction for the current and future climate projections. The Northeast and Great Lakes should be the go to destinations for the way climate is a changing. But people have been leaving this region and heading south and west. Those areas have been experiencing serious drought, wildfires, heat, and major hurricanes. I will take my chances in a region that can experience too much rain like the other day over fires and multiyear drought. Plus those ares are also prone to flooding cycles also. 107 in Austin TX yesterday and 108 the day before. And it’s not a “dry heat” there-heat index is over 110 when it’s that hot. I think their all time high was 111 in 2011 when they were in a La Niña drought. So they’re not far from it. When I was there it hit 104-105 a few times. Anything 100 and over is absolutely unbearable, like being in an oven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think it all comes down to wether we get the nino blockbuster. Feb 83, Jan 16. But others 97/98 and 72/73 were fails. One thing that’s almost certain, it will be above normal temp wise Pretty much. If we get into a strong Nino we’ll be battling warm air but the Nino charged southern jet is good for surprises. Maybe if the W PAC stays warm the forcing can be near the dateline which encourages an eastern trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 107 in Austin TX yesterday and 108 the day before. And it’s not a “dry heat” there-heat index is over 110 when it’s that hot. I think their all time high was 111 in 2011 when they were in a La Niña drought. So they’re not far from it. When I was there it hit 104-105 a few times. Anything 100 and over is absolutely unbearable, like being in an oven. My oldest son lives in Grapevine where its currently 103/74 with a heat index of 116. The wife and I don't visit there this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: My oldest son lives in Grapevine where its currently 103/74 with a heat index of 116. The wife and I don't visit there this time of year... Amazing Rob. The youngster could actually visit you this time of year just to cool off. Stay well, as always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think it all comes down to wether we get the nino blockbuster. Feb 83, Jan 16. But others 97/98 and 72/73 were fails. One thing that’s almost certain, it will be above normal temp wise What are the things that lead to the cold east coast* Nino outcomes of years like 2014? Looking at 40/70 Benchmark's composites on another thread it appeared as if a strong Nino could still have a cold eastern seaboard outcome at H5, but I know there's a lot of variability. Is that when sort of all other metrics are aligned to blast cold into the east continually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: What are the things that lead to the cold east Nino outcomes of years like 2014? Looking at 40/70 Benchmark's composites on another thread it appeared as if a strong Nino could still have a cold eastern seaboard outcome at H5, but I know there's a lot of variability. Is that when sort of all other metrics are aligned to blast cold into the east continually? We want the warmest water anomalies to be in the central Pacific not on the coast of Peru. That causes the strongest forcing to focus over the central Pacific and troughs to be more favored in the East. That’s called a Modoki or basinwide Nino. An east based strong Nino would likely be very warm for us like 97-98. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 9 hours ago, forkyfork said: guys did you know long island hasn't been getting rain Meanwhile up here, yet another Flood Advisory issued with loud thunder moving in...it never ends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 i was looking at accuweather long range nyc forecast and it shows some nice comfortable weather around the 6 of august for a few days.. something to look forward to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 46 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i was looking at accuweather long range nyc forecast and it shows some nice comfortable weather around the 6 of august for a few days.. something to look forward to... I’m looking at that right now and it’s showing a shocking amount of 50’s lows for August. Have a hard time believing that becomes reality. Even mid 60’s seems difficult anymore in peak summer. I don’t watch the models as much this time of year as I do in winter, so not sure what they’re showing a few weeks out. Not that it really matters that far anyway. Still, dreams are nice . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I’m looking at that right now and it’s showing a shocking amount of 50’s lows for August. Have a hard time believing that becomes reality. Even mid 60’s seems difficult anymore in peak summer. I don’t watch the models as much this time of year as I do in winter, so not sure what they’re showing a few weeks out. Not that it really matters that far anyway. Still, dreams are nice . Just like the 100s for late month fizzled out I'll just expect more of the same with occasional breaks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 i have trenchfoot and root rot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 jungle rot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Very shocking news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Damn that’s way too young. Rest in peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 https://nypost.com/2023/07/16/extreme-weather-could-be-our-new-normal-gov-hochul?utm_source=nypost&utm_campaign=android_nyp&utm_medium=social 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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