Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I really hope I get to experience a VEI 7 in my lifetime. Purely from a meteorological perspective. Too much to write in regards to how incredible that would be in the face of global warming. 

Maybe for darker lunar eclipses, but as far as volcanoes influencing the climate, they've all been a colossal disappointment.

I was around for El Chichon and it didn't do anything for our snowfall totals and neither did Pinatubo.

 

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will depend how much was injected into the stratosphere. The earlier eruption produced about 0.5 terragrams of sulfur dioxide. About 5 terragrams reaching the stratosphere is required to have a significant short-term climate impact.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152716/a-blanket-of-ash-from-ruang

I haven't seen any data on the most recent eruption, yet, but it should be posted here in coming days:

https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/measures.html

Note: The chart in the above link shows total sulfur dioxide emissions, not solely those that reached the stratosphere.

Looking like we are going to have a potentially interesting setup taking shape…possible volcanic stratosphere?, -IOD by fall?, strong La Niña (orientation TBD - east based/basin wide/Modoki?), -PDO, high solar max/high geomag/high sunspots, +QBO, ++AMO….

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Looking like we are going to have a potentially interesting setup taking shape…possible volcanic stratosphere?, -IOD by fall?, strong La Niña (orientation TBD - east based/basin wide/Modoki?), -PDO, high solar max/high geomag/high sunspots, +QBO, ++AMO….

 When you say “potentially interesting” with regard to the items you listed, are you implying anything specific? I’m curious about what you’re thinking.

 To your list, I’d add the continuing effects of the underwater Hunga Tonga volcano due to the massive amount of moisture emitted. I’ve read one paper with an analysis that suggests that significant global effects, including added warmth on a global basis, will likely continue through ~2029. One thing it suggests is that there’s an increased chance vs climo of a multi-year El Niño later this decade due to this:

 

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 When you say “potentially interesting” with regard to the items you listed, are you implying anything specific? I’m curious about what you’re thinking.

 To your list, I’d add the continuing effects of the underwater Hunga Tonga volcano due to the massive amount of moisture emitted. I’ve read at least one paper with an analysis that suggests that significant global effects, including added warmth on a global basis, will likely continue through ~2029. One thing it suggests is that there’s an increased chance vs climo of a multi-year El Niño later this decade due to this:

 

I am referring to the potential volcanic effects yes. I don’t think AGW is going anywhere anytime soon, in fact, it may even get worse

@donsutherland1 Thoughts?

[JTA66]

I remember reading once that, while tropical eruptions can lead to cooler summers, they tend to produce warmer winters. If we what an eruption that leads to cooler winters for us, we need the eruption to take place in the northern latitudes.

Any truth to this? Did I misread or am I remembering this incorrectly? Hoping someone more knowledgeable than me (which is most of you) can chime in. Thanks! 

[Volcanic Winter]

The larger eruption I'm hearing was 0.94 cubic kilometers, combining with the earlier 0.40 cubic kilometers of the eruption on the 17th, this event is a clear VEI 5 overall and actually larger than St Helens in 1980, though that erupted 1.2 cubic kilometers in one sustained eruption.

Still, this is a very, very significant event. Usually one eruption per decade will reach VEI 5 levels.

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I remember reading once that, while tropical eruptions can lead to cooler summers, they tend to produce warmer winters. If we what an eruption that leads to cooler winters for us, we need the eruption to take place in the northern latitudes.

Any truth to this? Did I misread or am I remembering this incorrectly? Hoping someone more knowledgeable than me (which is most of you) can chime in. Thanks! 

Classic tropical volcanic eruptions that get into the stratosphere typically cause +AO (NAM)/+NAO the 1st winter after an eruption. Then -AO/-NAO is favored the 2nd winter after

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The larger eruption I'm hearing was 0.94 cubic kilometers, combining with the earlier 0.40 cubic kilometers of the eruption on the 17th, this event is a clear VEI 5 overall and actually larger than St Helens in 1980, though that erupted 1.2 cubic kilometers in one sustained eruption.

Still, this is a very, very significant event. Usually one eruption per decade will reach VEI 5 levels.

This is looking to possibly be a “high end” VEI 5, cumulative, when all is said and done. Like you said, extremely impressive 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Classic tropical volcanic eruptions that get into the stratosphere typically cause +AO (NAM)/+NAO the 1st winter after an eruption. Then -AO/-NAO is favored the 2nd winter after

 Fwiw the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which occurred 6/15/91, was followed by +NAO/+AO not only the next winter but also by an even stronger one the 2nd winter (strongest since 1988-9):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

[GaWx]

 Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out):

New 2 meter DJF E US:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024050100&fh=9

 

Old:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024040100&fh=10

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out):

New 2 meter DJF E US:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024050100&fh=9

 

Old:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024040100&fh=10

After the utter debacle last winter, I’ll never look at those again

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I am referring to the potential volcanic effects yes. I don’t think AGW is going anywhere anytime soon, in fact, it may even get worse

@donsutherland1 Thoughts?

AGW will almost certainly grow worse. There's little indication that global fossil fuel emissions will begin to decline significantly over the near- and medium-term. That will probably add another 0.1C-0.2C background warming globally toward the end of the decade. By 2030 readings close to 2023 levels might be the norm. By then, there will probably be a clear signal for declining snowfall in the NYC area that will stand out from any plausible case for internal variability.

 

[snowman19]

@Volcanic Winter Just read on twitter that the eruptions are still getting revised higher and may approach a VEI 6 in the end? 

[snowman19]

A classic, strong -PDO signature is developing, cold subsurface anomalies in the ENSO regions, all systems go for this La Niña to really take off
 

[snowman19]

@GaWx @donsutherland1 

Heres the paper I was looking for regarding strong +AO response to volcanic eruptions. Given this and the solar max/high geomag/sunspots, +QBO, I would say at this very early juncture that a +AO/+NAO winter is highly favored as of right now:

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005JD006286

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx @donsutherland1 

Heres the paper I was looking for regarding strong +AO response to volcanic eruptions. Given this and the solar max/high geomag/sunspots, +QBO, I would say at this very early juncture that a +AO/+NAO winter is highly favored as of right now:

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005JD006286

 Thank you for this link! This is a summary of what I learned from reading it, with emphasis on tables 3 (9 eruptions since 1880s) and 4 (subset of the 9 that covers only the 4 since 1963)

-Covers the two DJFs that follow 9 volcanic eruptions (3 each of VEI 4, 5, 6)

-For the eruptions that occurred Mar-Aug (7 of 9) the immediate next 2 DJFs were analyzed

-But for the two that occurred in Oct, a one year lag was assumed and thus the two later DJFs were studied.

-Winters analyzed: 1883-4/1884-5, 1886-7/1887-8, 1888-9/1889-90, 1903-4/1904-5, 1932-3/1933-4, 1963-4/1964-5, 1975-6/1976-7, 1982-3/1983-4, 1991-2/1992-3

-For these 18 winters averaged, table 3 shows a significant +AO and +NAO based on BN SLP in the Arctic (-2 mb) and AN SLP in the Azores (+3 mb).

-For just the average of the 8 winters since 1963-4, table 4 shows an even stronger +AO/+NAO with even more BN Arctic SLP (-3 mb) and even more AN Azores SLP (+5 mb).

-But focusing on just the 8 winters since 1963 (table 4) and looking at the respective NOAA NAO/AO monthlies shows a disconnect with this study’s table 4/very mixed picture

  1) NAO: 1963-4 and 1976-7 had two of the strongest -NAO since 1950! Also, 1964-5 had a moderate -NAO and 1975-6 had a neutral NAO. So, 50% of the 8 winters had a negative to neutral NAO. The average NAO for the 8 was near 0/neutral!
**Edit: Coincidentally?, 1963-4/1964-5 and 1975-6/1976-7 were near solar mins (avg sunspots <27) while 1982-3 and 1991-2/1992-3 had >110 with 1983-4 ~75. 2024-5 almost definitely/2025-6 likely will have active sunspots fwiw.

  2) AO: 1964-5 and 1976-7 were -AO while 1963-4, 1982-3, and 1983-4 were neutral AO. So, 5/8 of the 8 winters had a negative to neutral AO. The average AO for the 8 winters was near 0/neutral!

-Their map for the 18 winter average shows NN temperatures in the E US despite their +AO/+NAO average. (They’re AN in N Eurasia).

-My look at the 18 E US winter temperatures one by one using NYC as the representative city (normals based on nearby 30 year averages):

1883-4: slightly BN (cold Jan)

1884-5: BN (very cold Feb) (cold SE)(Nino)

1886-7: slightly BN (cold Dec)(Niña)

1887-8: BN (very cold Jan)(big Mar blizzard)

1888-9: slightly AN (mild Jan)(super Nino)

1889-90: MAN (D,J,F mild)(MAN SE)(Niña)

1903-4: MBN (all 3 cold)(BN SE)(Niña)

1904-5: BN (cold D,F)(MBN in SE)(Nino)

1932-3: AN (mild D,J)

1933-4: BN (record cold F)(Niña)

1963-4: NN (cold D, mild J)(MBN in SE)(Nino)

1964-5: NN (Niña)

1975-6: NN (cold Jan, mild Feb)(Niña)

1976-7: MBN (MBN DJ)(record cold SE)(Nino)

1982-3: AN (mild Dec)(super Nino)

1983-4: NN (mild Feb)(Niña)

1991-2: AN (Nino)

1992-3: NN (mild J, cold F)(Storm of Cent. Mar)

—————
AVG of all 18: slightly BN/wide variation

AVG of 9 1st winters: slightly AN/wide variation

AVG of 9 2nd winters: slightly BN/wide variation (most of BN to MBN winters 2nd yr)

ENSO: 7 Nino, 7 Niña (even split but study favors Nino maybe due to bigger weights of 2 super Nino)

 Their maps show stronger than normal SPV/TPV for the 18 winter average. Stratosphere is opposite, warmer than normal, in the tropics.

[snowman19]

Here comes La Niña. We already have the strong -PDO….only question remaining….do we flip to a -IOD by fall, which will really kick this into overdrive?

[GaWx]

 New from JB:

“Now the CFSV2 is trying to forecast a warm PDO for the winter”

“this would resemble a blend of the SST of 10-11,13-14,14-15”

 

 Once again, he’s relying on what I feel are bogus WB CFS SSTa maps like the one above. Yes, that looks like a +PDO. But it doesn’t matter if it is bogus like I think it is. Why does it have the warmest Pac waters, other than near Japan, just off N.A. and a 1,000 by 4,000 mile area of cold waters in the W to CPAC (to just N of Hawaii)??

 To compare, here’s the -PDO shown on the latest TT CFS SSTa map for NDJ using 1984-2009 climo (DJF not out yet on TT): is orange where huge blue WB area is (including N of Hawaii) and only yellow/white (cooler) just off N.A. So, TT -PDO for NDJ vs WB +PDO for DJF for the same model! You can’t make this stuff up!

 

By the way here’s TT CANSIPS for DJF: strong -PDO

@snowman19@donsutherland1@Brian5671

[Brian5671]

What I don't get is why he only looks at the WB maps-if they are causing him to bust why not check out other sources?

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 New from JB:

“Now the CFSV2 is trying to forecast a warm PDO for the winter”

“this would resemble a blend of the SST of 10-11,13-14,14-15”

 
 

 Once again, he’s relying on what I feel are bogus WB CFS SSTa maps like the one above. Yes, that looks like a +PDO. But it doesn’t matter if it is bogus like I think it is. Why does it have the warmest Pac waters, other than near Japan, just off N.A. and a 1,000 by 4,000 mile area of cold waters in the W to CPAC (to just N of Hawaii)??

 To compare, here’s the -PDO shown on the latest TT CFS SSTa map for NDJ using 1984-2009 climo (DJF not out yet on TT): is orange where huge blue WB area is and only yellow/white (cooler) just off N.A. So, TT -PDO for NDF vs WB +PDO for DJF for the same model! You can’t make this stuff up!

 

By the way here’s TT CANSIPS for DJF: strong -PDO

@snowman19@donsutherland1@Brian5671

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What I don't get is why he only looks at the WB maps-if they are causing him to bust why not check out other sources?

Privately he may very well look at others but he’d still likely dismiss them in his mind due to his bias. But regardless, publicly because he works for WB, because the WB maps show what he wants (+PDO), and because he keeps thinking after a bunch of busts that perhaps he won’t bust this time, especially since he almost always badly wants to predict a cold E US winter.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat 

 True. But if he were at least to use accurate maps showing a +PDO, it wouldn’t be so bad. But doing this using inaccurate maps is ridiculous. I assume he doesn’t realize these WB SSTa maps are bogus.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat 

We are definitely on the same page here. 13/14 was a strong -epo based winter, which we haven’t seen since. Why would that suddenly come back? 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 True. But if he were at least to use accurate maps showing a +PDO, it wouldn’t be so bad. But doing this using inaccurate maps is ridiculous.

He doesn’t care and he knows that the majority of his weenie base doesn’t know any better. They just keep forking him over the cash. He’s a snake oil salesman, laughing all the way to the bank

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We are definitely on the same page here. 13/14 was a strong -epo based winter, which we haven’t seen since. Why would that suddenly come back? 

It doesn’t matter as he’s using maps with bogus CFS forecasted Pacific SSTa data to make it seem like 13/14 is a good analog. I‘m not saying he knows it is bogus though. I assume he doesn’t.

[GaWx]

 Actually, the bigger issue here may be why the WB CFS SSTa maps are so wacky as opposed to the never ending JB cold winter bias.

 Do y’all see what I’m seeing? This isn’t the first time. I’m not saying it is intentional. But why are they so far off?

@snowman19

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Privately he may very well look at others but he’d still likely dismiss them in his mind due to his bias. But regardless, publicly because he works for WB, because the WB maps show what he wants (+PDO), and because he keeps thinking after a bunch of busts that perhaps he won’t bust this time, especially since he almost always badly wants to predict a cold E US winter.

Crazy.  That would be like using the CMC only to predict weather and not looking at any other models...

[Brian5671]

Last truly cold eastern winters were 13-14 and 14-15--it's been a unmitigated torch since then with the occasional cold snap or snowy pattern like 20-21

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Crazy.  That would be like using the CMC only to predict weather and not looking at any other models...

 But this is even worse because it is like looking at the WB version of the CMC only and not other versions of the same model (CMC) that are very different and make more sense (more believable). Why very different SSTa output from the same model even exists is mind boggling. They should be similar.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Actually, the bigger issue here may be why the WB CFS SSTa maps are so wacky as opposed to the never ending JB cold winter bias.

 Do y’all see what I’m seeing? This isn’t the first time. I’m not saying it is intentional. But why are they so far off?

@snowman19

I believe the maps are purposely skewed in some way to fit his east coast cold and snow obsession. The guy isn’t right mentally. Make no mistake about it, no matter what happens with the PDO (which will extremely likely be negative), his analogs for next winter will be 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. It’s already a predetermined done deal in his warped mind