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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


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8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

JB's repeated high-profile forecasting failures are a sad closing chapter to his career.

Almost certainly, he is aware of how badly he has been forecasting. From big snowstorms that never materialized to extreme Arctic blasts that never arrived, his Winter 2023-2024 forecasting was catastrophically bad.

At this time, he should give serious  and honest reflection as to where he is, how he got there, and next steps. He should keep in mind the importance of preserving his legacy and reputation, both of which are being battered his forecasting failures.

 

I think it comes down to a few things-for a period of time he refused to acknowledge that the globe was warming...then he did but said it was not man made (Right now he insists its volcanoes underwater warming the ocean (which I cannot find any scientific support for) This along with his anti vaxx and extremist political posts on twitter have further alienated him (when was the last time you've seen him on a real network?  He used to be on several news networks regularly as a guest)  He uses an analog approach to forecasting which worked well until we entered a steeper rate of warming 10 yrs ago.   Analogs from the 1950's to the 1970's won't do much in today's warmer climate.    Thus he has busted horribly especially on temps the last few years.  My two cents but agree with your post overall.

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Should be another imminent fissure eruption near Grindavik in Iceland. They can’t catch a break. This is going to keep happening for some time, as this form of volcanism brings repeated intrusions of magma that lead to repeat eruptions. And it’s not really ever going to be a type of eruption that Iceland can turn into a major tourism event like the gentle and predictable Fagradalsfjall eruptions the past few years. 

And this is still all part of the opening salvo of the Reykjanes volcanoes waking up for a new cycle of eruptions. Systems all over the most populated peninsula in the country will continue to wake up and erupt over the next century or two. 

Many of the towns on the Reykjanes including parts of modern Reykjavik are built on lava flows from the Middle Ages cycle of activity, so yeah going forward this is going to be quite a challenge for them. 

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9 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Should be another imminent fissure eruption near Grindavik in Iceland. They can’t catch a break. This is going to keep happening for some time, as this form of volcanism brings repeated intrusions of magma that lead to repeat eruptions. And it’s not really ever going to be a type of eruption that Iceland can turn into a major tourism event like the gentle and predictable Fagradalsfjall eruptions the past few years. 

And this is still all part of the opening salvo of the Reykjanes volcanoes waking up for a new cycle of eruptions. Systems all over the most populated peninsula in the country will continue to wake up and erupt over the next century or two. 

Many of the towns on the Reykjanes including parts of modern Reykjavik are built on lava flows from the Middle Ages cycle of activity, so yeah going forward this is going to be quite a challenge for them. 

I wonder if the Middle Ages activity is repeating itself?

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14 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Should be another imminent fissure eruption near Grindavik in Iceland. They can’t catch a break. This is going to keep happening for some time, as this form of volcanism brings repeated intrusions of magma that lead to repeat eruptions. And it’s not really ever going to be a type of eruption that Iceland can turn into a major tourism event like the gentle and predictable Fagradalsfjall eruptions the past few years. 

And this is still all part of the opening salvo of the Reykjanes volcanoes waking up for a new cycle of eruptions. Systems all over the most populated peninsula in the country will continue to wake up and erupt over the next century or two. 

Many of the towns on the Reykjanes including parts of modern Reykjavik are built on lava flows from the Middle Ages cycle of activity, so yeah going forward this is going to be quite a challenge for them. 

Keflavik airport is at the end of the peninsula. If it gets isolated by these eruptions, it would be crippling for Iceland, tourism is a huge part of the economy.

Are there any contingency plans that have been prepared or are they confident that these eruptions will remain contained?

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14 hours ago, etudiant said:

Keflavik airport is at the end of the peninsula. If it gets isolated by these eruptions, it would be crippling for Iceland, tourism is a huge part of the economy.

Are there any contingency plans that have been prepared or are they confident that these eruptions will remain contained?

@LibertyBell


I mean, AFAIK they’re responsible for the first successful artificial structure based lava flow redirection in history. While the wall they built north of Grindavik was ultimately breached, it was moreso because a small fissure opened up inside of it which is something they’re not going to be able to control. Still what they did to divert the flow around town was mightily impressive considering the destructive force of lava. Those walls will not work in a faster, higher effusion rate eruption though as they’ll quickly be swamped.

Ultimately I think they were piloting these diversion structures to help protect important assets going forward. A few of the Reykjanes systems are pretty violent and did very large hrauns (lava fields) in the Middle Ages. Eldey and other systems near Keflavik have had phreatomagmatic (explosive) components in the past, including tephra fall over the location of Keflavik today. 

Going forward the risk is uncomfortably high, though unnervingly spread out over a long period going forward. The Reykjanes cycle in the Middle Ages was something like 300 years of on again off again activity throughout the various volcanoes on the peninsula, and evidence suggests a similar thing will start to (and already has) happen now. 

Hengill is a monster and could present a problem for Þingvellir and the Golden Circle tourism hub east of the capital. 

Unfortunately, despite incredible advances to predictive ability in the last few decades, this is still highly inexact and the protracted risk going forward to the capital region is substantial. 

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@etudiant @LibertyBell

Add to that both Katla and Hekla are due for explosive eruptions any time now, and the monster Öræfajökull (Or-eye-fa-yo-koolt) showed activity / inflation beginning in the 2010’s (its last eruption was in the 1700’s and it theoretically could be nearing its next one). 

Katla is a bit more concerning as it has surpassed its normal length of dormancy (Katla is typically very regular with its frequent large VEI4-5 eruptions), which could point to a larger VEI 5 event forthcoming. Hekla may also be nearing a larger event, though unlikely to be larger than Katla. 

Öræfajökull is the explosive wildcard as this volcano at the southern axis of the Vatnajökull glacier is the largest explosive volcano in Iceland and contains the highest peak in the country on the rim of its glacier-capped massive caldera (Hvannadalshnúkur). It’s capable of anything from VEI 4 to 6 eruptions, and tends to only go large when it does erupt. That system waking up would be downright frightening. So much so, the volcano had a different name amongst the original Icelandic settlers prior to its borderline VEI 5-6 eruption in the 14th century, and after had its name changed to mean “wasteland.” 

image.jpeg.66b321b04abfdd55ba3d3af18fc505f1.jpeg

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9 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:


@etudiant @LibertyBell

Add to that both Katla and Hekla are due for explosive eruptions any time now, and the monster Öræfajökull (Or-eye-fa-yo-koolt) showed activity / inflation beginning in the 2010’s (its last eruption was in the 1700’s and it theoretically could be nearing its next one). 

Katla is a bit more concerning as it has surpassed its normal length of dormancy (Katla is typically very regular with its frequent large VEI4-5 eruptions), which could point to a larger VEI 5 event forthcoming. Hekla may also be nearing a larger event, though unlikely to be larger than Katla. 

Öræfajökull is the explosive wildcard as this volcano at the southern axis of the Vatnajökull glacier is the largest explosive volcano in Iceland and contains the highest peak in the country on the rim of its glacier-capped massive caldera (Hvannadalshnúkur). It’s capable of anything from VEI 4 to 6 eruptions, and tends to only go large when it does erupt. That system waking up would be downright frightening. So much so, the volcano had a different name amongst the original Icelandic settlers prior to its borderline VEI 5-6 eruption in the 14th century, and after had its name changed to mean “wasteland.” 

image.jpeg.66b321b04abfdd55ba3d3af18fc505f1.jpeg

Sobering.

Iirc, the Hekla/Katla  eruptions were very rich in fluorine, which made them especially lethal for both livestock as well as people.

Oraefajokull is very much an unappreciated hazard, an explosive VEI 5 event would halt North Atlantic air traffic entirely.

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https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/reykjanes/news/236843/Reykjanes-volcano-update-two-lava-branches-extend-in-W-and-SE-direction-western-lava-arm-flows-acros.html
 

Iceland cracked open again for a continuation of the fissure eruption near Grindavik. Some spectacular images from this event.

An Icelandic volcanologist predicts that the activity will ultimately start to lessen by July, and at that point we may see the activation of another system or even see it switch back to Fagradalsfjall.

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On 3/14/2024 at 1:13 PM, Brian5671 said:

I think it comes down to a few things-for a period of time he refused to acknowledge that the globe was warming...then he did but said it was not man made (Right now he insists its volcanoes underwater warming the ocean (which I cannot find any scientific support for) This along with his anti vaxx and extremist political posts on twitter have further alienated him (when was the last time you've seen him on a real network?  He used to be on several news networks regularly as a guest)  He uses an analog approach to forecasting which worked well until we entered a steeper rate of warming 10 yrs ago.   Analogs from the 1950's to the 1970's won't do much in today's warmer climate.    Thus he has busted horribly especially on temps the last few years.  My two cents but agree with your post overall.

Just read on twitter that JB is still hyping arctic cold and an Easter weekend snowstorm for the I-95 corridor on his paid site. He’s got to have some screws loose

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On 3/17/2024 at 9:36 AM, snowman19 said:

Just read on twitter that JB is still hyping arctic cold and an Easter weekend snowstorm for the I-95 corridor on his paid site. He’s got to have some screws loose

Embarrassing at this point...the twitter comments are hilarious....

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On 3/20/2024 at 10:06 AM, Brian5671 said:

Embarrassing at this point...the twitter comments are hilarious....

“Ice age when?”

Reminds me - a couple years ago I stumbled across a climate change denial website, I think it was called ‘Electroverse.’ It was dedicated to talking about the impending ice age that’s happening any year now lol. Of course they were obsessed with the “Grand Solar Minima” that never materialized, and kept posting any cold temperature records from any specific town or village anywhere in the world on any given day. You know what they say, weather = climate right? Definitely. 

Good stuff, still waiting on my Ice Age. We know that’s my preferred climate configuration, but unfortunately I think the past two years went in roughly the exact diametric opposite direction. Wondering if that site’s still truckin’, I’d imagine they dropped the solar stuff given how spicy the sun has been, and probably focused on Asia this winter. 

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5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

“Ice age when?”

Reminds me - a couple years ago I stumbled across a climate change denial website, I think it was called ‘Electroverse.’ It was dedicated to talking about the impending ice age that’s happening any year now lol. Of course they were obsessed with the “Grand Solar Minima” that never materialized, and kept posting any cold temperature records from any specific town or village anywhere in the world on any given day. You know what they say, weather = climate right? Definitely. 

Good stuff, still waiting on my Ice Age. We know that’s my preferred climate configuration, but unfortunately I think the past two years went in roughly the exact diametric opposite direction. Wondering if that site’s still truckin’, I’d imagine they dropped the solar stuff and probably focused on Asia this winter. 

Yes when the sun when into the minimum some were talking about Maunder minimum little age coming type stuff.   That was 10-15 yrs ago and I think the verdict is in on that one....

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This is pure fiction at this point, but accuweather has rain for the day of the eclipse lol.

This long range forecast goes all the way out to May 6th!

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york/10021/daily-weather-forecast/349727

 

Sun 4/7 58° /41° 20% Mostly sunny
 
Mon 4/8 59° /48° 55% Cloudy most of the time with a touch of rain
 
55% chance of rain is really high for 17 days away
 
Tue 4/9 63° /49° 25% Times of clouds and sun
 
and back to sunny on Tuesday 4/9 lol
 
Wed 4/10 63° /39° 70% Periods of rain in the morning; otherwise, cloudy
 
wow wednesday 4/10 has a 70% chance of rain, so it's even higher
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a nova....

 

https://ktla.com/news/new-star-could-appear-in-night-sky-in-2024/

 

Astronomers are predicting a once-in-a-lifetime stargazing opportunity could appear in the northern hemisphere sometime in 2024 – a “new” star in the constellation Corona Borealis, KTLA sister station WBOY reports.

The location of T Coronae Borealis (circled in red) (Wikimedia Commons by PopePompus - Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International) The location of T Coronae Borealis (circled in red) (Wikimedia Commons by PopePompus – Creative Commons Attribution-

Being millions, if not billions of years old, the star “T Coronae Borealis” (T CrB) isn’t technically new. However, it will soon become visible to the naked eye for the first time in nearly 80 years. But what’s causing it to suddenly become as bright as the North Star?

T CrB is what’s called a recurring nova and is actually a white dwarf in a binary, or two-star, system; its stellar partner is a much larger red giant. According to NASA, as the red giant becomes unstable, it begins to shed its outer layers, which are then sucked up by the gravity of the white dwarf. When T CrB gathers enough stellar material from its neighbor, it lets off a massive explosion, big enough for us to see it 3,000 light-years away here on Earth

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https://blogs.nasa.gov/Watch_the_Skies/2024/02/27/view-nova-explosion-new-star-in-northern-crown/

 

A star system, located 3,000 light-years away from Earth, is predicted to become visible to the unaided eye soon. This could be a once-in-a-lifetime viewing opportunity as the nova ouburst only occurs about every 80 years. T Coronae Borealis, or T CrB, last exploded in 1946 and astronomers believe it will do so again between February and September 2024.

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By the way I got this solar filter for the eclipse:

 

https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/B0CPXJP62Y/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_viewopt_fmt?ie=UTF8&filterByStar=five_star&reviewerType=all_reviews&formatType=current_format&pageNumber=1#reviews-filter-bar

it reduces sunlight by 16.6 stops or 100,000x

I was also considering this even darker filter that reduces sunlight by 20 stops or 1,000,000x, but the reviews say it's too dark.

https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/B0CRV8YLM8/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_show_all?ie=UTF8&reviewerType=all_reviews&pageNumber=1#reviews-filter-bar

 

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On 3/23/2024 at 11:36 AM, uofmiami said:

Ski resorts up there will be happy.

 

On 3/23/2024 at 11:47 AM, psv88 said:

Too little too late. It’s akin to a rainy summer and then it gets nice after Labor Day. Doesn’t help the beach resorts at all. 

I saw at least some of he ski areas up there had traffic jams and ran out of parking, might have been their best weekend of the season.

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13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

I saw at least some of he ski areas up there had traffic jams and ran out of parking, might have been their best weekend of the season.

Great. Doesn’t make up for an overall shitty season. The masses don’t go skiing in April. 

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

I wanted to take my kids up to ski this winter so they can learn but conditions were so bad we bailed. Until next year 

yeah we got out a grand total of once in January and the place was maybe 60% open on 1/22.  Terrible.   Wasn't going to pay for ice/slush the other times it would have worked for us to go.  Feeling envious about this last weekend but spring sports/activities have started here so we're unable to go now.

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In his A Winter Season, James Fisher wrote December in Edinburgh in the early 19th century:

In midst of dark December's howling blast, out from his quarters in the frigid zone comes surly Winter, in his car of iron, drawn on by furious, foaming, snow-white steeds, escorted by his angry northern band; which raves, and roars, and rages all around despoiling Nature of her every charm; and now sits down to storm her empire all… Falling rapidly, drifting on heaps, are the flakes of now, while the boisterous wind, roaring furiously, disbranches the trees, and threatens to overturn every habitation of man. To heighten the terrific scene... what a flash of lightning, followed by a tremendously loud clap of thunder!

A lot of that could have applied to December in New York City during its first 30 years of record (1869-1898). December is now increasingly taking on the character of late November. The changes have been so dramatic that January today (1995-2024) is almost identical to what December was like during New York City’s first 30 years of recordkeeping.

image.png.7207d53e7ce0ee3c2b8088dce100ba3a.png

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On 3/29/2024 at 6:26 AM, Rtd208 said:

The NW crew here are well aware of the slight gap along the Orange/Sullivan County line, depending on the direction precipitation is moving in from, especially thunderstorms. I can't imagine being in a legit gap area.

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