Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[LibertyBell]

On 3/10/2024 at 10:48 AM, forkyfork said:

nino to nina is usually good for us

for good snows next winter too

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Dew not want. 

hot and dry is what we want

[LibertyBell]

On 3/10/2024 at 10:10 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Record hot summer coming?

I'm looking forward to a 2010 repeat and a winter like that to follow....

[LibertyBell]

On 3/10/2024 at 10:08 AM, forkyfork said:

can it be june now

 

a 2010 repeat (both summer and winter) would be nice!

[forkyfork]

16 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

gonna be begging for this weather in a few months

we are hitting an 80 dew this year in nj i feel the power

to be fair that's not hard to do anymore

[MJO812]

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

80 dp is still pretty crazy

We hit 77 here last summer

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

to be fair that's not hard to do anymore

I'd much rather see 100+ highs

dew points are boring

"80" is just a regular number

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

imagine the kind of storms we’re gonna see

last few years were excellent thunderstorm seasons

I remember we had some big outbreaks in 2010 and 2011 too!

[donsutherland1]

Sleight of hand:

From this:

To this:

Notice the change in region being emphasized (from eastern North America to worldwide).

The latest ensemble guidance shows nothing close to among the "coldest opening weeks of spring on record." Back in December, when it became clear that a forecast for a frigid December would not verify, the analogs were shifted (colder ones dropped and others added) to suggest that the forecast had been for a warm December in the East. In fact, the analogs had been posted on the Weatherbell final winter forecast, so one could find the change that had been made to try to evade a big forecast error.

[MJO812]

I guess winter is officially over even though I keep looking at the models to see if there is anything on them.

Time to put my shovels away this weekend 

 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Sleight of hand:

From this:

To this:

Notice the change in region being emphasized (from eastern North America to worldwide).

The latest ensemble guidance shows nothing close to among the "coldest opening weeks of spring on record." Back in December, when it became clear that a forecast for a frigid December would not verify, the analogs were shifted (colder ones dropped and others added) to suggest that the forecast had been for a warm December in the East. In fact, the analogs had been posted on the Weatherbell final winter forecast, so one could find the change that had been made to try to evade a big forecast error.

This little east coast cold and snow charade of his has been ongoing since November….first it was Thanksgiving, then it was Christmas, then late December/New Year’s, then mid-late January, then early February, then mid-late February, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, now it’s the end of March. Kicking the can down the road for 5 months in a row and counting. How do people waste their money to read this wishcasting??

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This little east coast cold and snow charade of his has been ongoing since November….first it was Thanksgiving, then it was Christmas, then late December/New Year’s, then mid-late January, then early February, then mid-late February, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, now it’s the end of March. Kicking the can down the road for 5 months in a row and counting. How do people waste their money to read this wishcasting??

Way back when, JB and DT were the "go to guys" for weather.   Not so much anymore...

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Way back when, JB and DT were the "go to guys" for weather.   Not so much anymore...

He’s completely insufferable and has decided to go down with the ship this year. Crash and burn. These last 2 winters were his worst busts of all time and that’s saying something. Worse than the 01-02 “vodka cold” winter, worse than the 11-12 winter, when it took him until after Valentine’s Day to finally admit defeat. He’s Casey Jones right now….

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

He’s completely insufferable and has decided to go down with the ship this year. Crash and burn. These last 2 winters were his worst busts of all time and that’s saying something. Worse than the 01-02 “vodka cold” winter, worse than the 11-12 winter, when it took him until after Valentine’s Day to finally admit defeat. He’s Casey Jones right now….

The comments on X are brutal if you look...I wonder if he reads them LOL

[uofmiami]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Way back when, JB and DT were the "go to guys" for weather.   Not so much anymore...

Agreed & DT was as argumentative as ever too.  Time to move on and ignore them IMO. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

The comments on X are brutal if you look...I wonder if he reads them LOL

JB's repeated high-profile forecasting failures are a sad closing chapter to his career.

Almost certainly, he is aware of how badly he has been forecasting. From big snowstorms that never materialized to extreme Arctic blasts that never arrived, his Winter 2023-2024 forecasting was catastrophically bad.

At this time, he should give serious  and honest reflection as to where he is, how he got there, and next steps. He should keep in mind the importance of preserving his legacy and reputation, both of which are being battered his forecasting failures.

 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

JB's repeated high-profile forecasting failures are a sad closing chapter to his career.

Almost certainly, he is aware of how badly he has been forecasting. From big snowstorms that never materialized to extreme Arctic blasts that never arrived, his Winter 2023-2024 forecasting was catastrophically bad.

At this time, he should give serious  and honest reflection as to where he is, how he got there, and next steps. He should keep in mind the importance of preserving his legacy and reputation, both of which are being battered his forecasting failures.

 

I think it comes down to a few things-for a period of time he refused to acknowledge that the globe was warming...then he did but said it was not man made (Right now he insists its volcanoes underwater warming the ocean (which I cannot find any scientific support for) This along with his anti vaxx and extremist political posts on twitter have further alienated him (when was the last time you've seen him on a real network?  He used to be on several news networks regularly as a guest)  He uses an analog approach to forecasting which worked well until we entered a steeper rate of warming 10 yrs ago.   Analogs from the 1950's to the 1970's won't do much in today's warmer climate.    Thus he has busted horribly especially on temps the last few years.  My two cents but agree with your post overall.

[Volcanic Winter]

Should be another imminent fissure eruption near Grindavik in Iceland. They can’t catch a break. This is going to keep happening for some time, as this form of volcanism brings repeated intrusions of magma that lead to repeat eruptions. And it’s not really ever going to be a type of eruption that Iceland can turn into a major tourism event like the gentle and predictable Fagradalsfjall eruptions the past few years. 

And this is still all part of the opening salvo of the Reykjanes volcanoes waking up for a new cycle of eruptions. Systems all over the most populated peninsula in the country will continue to wake up and erupt over the next century or two. 

Many of the towns on the Reykjanes including parts of modern Reykjavik are built on lava flows from the Middle Ages cycle of activity, so yeah going forward this is going to be quite a challenge for them. 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Should be another imminent fissure eruption near Grindavik in Iceland. They can’t catch a break. This is going to keep happening for some time, as this form of volcanism brings repeated intrusions of magma that lead to repeat eruptions. And it’s not really ever going to be a type of eruption that Iceland can turn into a major tourism event like the gentle and predictable Fagradalsfjall eruptions the past few years. 

And this is still all part of the opening salvo of the Reykjanes volcanoes waking up for a new cycle of eruptions. Systems all over the most populated peninsula in the country will continue to wake up and erupt over the next century or two. 

Many of the towns on the Reykjanes including parts of modern Reykjavik are built on lava flows from the Middle Ages cycle of activity, so yeah going forward this is going to be quite a challenge for them. 

I wonder if the Middle Ages activity is repeating itself?

[etudiant]

14 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Should be another imminent fissure eruption near Grindavik in Iceland. They can’t catch a break. This is going to keep happening for some time, as this form of volcanism brings repeated intrusions of magma that lead to repeat eruptions. And it’s not really ever going to be a type of eruption that Iceland can turn into a major tourism event like the gentle and predictable Fagradalsfjall eruptions the past few years. 

And this is still all part of the opening salvo of the Reykjanes volcanoes waking up for a new cycle of eruptions. Systems all over the most populated peninsula in the country will continue to wake up and erupt over the next century or two. 

Many of the towns on the Reykjanes including parts of modern Reykjavik are built on lava flows from the Middle Ages cycle of activity, so yeah going forward this is going to be quite a challenge for them. 

Keflavik airport is at the end of the peninsula. If it gets isolated by these eruptions, it would be crippling for Iceland, tourism is a huge part of the economy.

Are there any contingency plans that have been prepared or are they confident that these eruptions will remain contained?

[Volcanic Winter]

14 hours ago, etudiant said:

Keflavik airport is at the end of the peninsula. If it gets isolated by these eruptions, it would be crippling for Iceland, tourism is a huge part of the economy.

Are there any contingency plans that have been prepared or are they confident that these eruptions will remain contained?

@LibertyBell

I mean, AFAIK they’re responsible for the first successful artificial structure based lava flow redirection in history. While the wall they built north of Grindavik was ultimately breached, it was moreso because a small fissure opened up inside of it which is something they’re not going to be able to control. Still what they did to divert the flow around town was mightily impressive considering the destructive force of lava. Those walls will not work in a faster, higher effusion rate eruption though as they’ll quickly be swamped.

Ultimately I think they were piloting these diversion structures to help protect important assets going forward. A few of the Reykjanes systems are pretty violent and did very large hrauns (lava fields) in the Middle Ages. Eldey and other systems near Keflavik have had phreatomagmatic (explosive) components in the past, including tephra fall over the location of Keflavik today. 

Going forward the risk is uncomfortably high, though unnervingly spread out over a long period going forward. The Reykjanes cycle in the Middle Ages was something like 300 years of on again off again activity throughout the various volcanoes on the peninsula, and evidence suggests a similar thing will start to (and already has) happen now. 

Hengill is a monster and could present a problem for Þingvellir and the Golden Circle tourism hub east of the capital. 

Unfortunately, despite incredible advances to predictive ability in the last few decades, this is still highly inexact and the protracted risk going forward to the capital region is substantial. 

[Volcanic Winter]

@etudiant @LibertyBell

Add to that both Katla and Hekla are due for explosive eruptions any time now, and the monster Öræfajökull (Or-eye-fa-yo-koolt) showed activity / inflation beginning in the 2010’s (its last eruption was in the 1700’s and it theoretically could be nearing its next one). 

Katla is a bit more concerning as it has surpassed its normal length of dormancy (Katla is typically very regular with its frequent large VEI4-5 eruptions), which could point to a larger VEI 5 event forthcoming. Hekla may also be nearing a larger event, though unlikely to be larger than Katla. 

Öræfajökull is the explosive wildcard as this volcano at the southern axis of the Vatnajökull glacier is the largest explosive volcano in Iceland and contains the highest peak in the country on the rim of its glacier-capped massive caldera (Hvannadalshnúkur). It’s capable of anything from VEI 4 to 6 eruptions, and tends to only go large when it does erupt. That system waking up would be downright frightening. So much so, the volcano had a different name amongst the original Icelandic settlers prior to its borderline VEI 5-6 eruption in the 14th century, and after had its name changed to mean “wasteland.” 

[etudiant]

9 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@etudiant @LibertyBell

Add to that both Katla and Hekla are due for explosive eruptions any time now, and the monster Öræfajökull (Or-eye-fa-yo-koolt) showed activity / inflation beginning in the 2010’s (its last eruption was in the 1700’s and it theoretically could be nearing its next one). 

Katla is a bit more concerning as it has surpassed its normal length of dormancy (Katla is typically very regular with its frequent large VEI4-5 eruptions), which could point to a larger VEI 5 event forthcoming. Hekla may also be nearing a larger event, though unlikely to be larger than Katla. 

Öræfajökull is the explosive wildcard as this volcano at the southern axis of the Vatnajökull glacier is the largest explosive volcano in Iceland and contains the highest peak in the country on the rim of its glacier-capped massive caldera (Hvannadalshnúkur). It’s capable of anything from VEI 4 to 6 eruptions, and tends to only go large when it does erupt. That system waking up would be downright frightening. So much so, the volcano had a different name amongst the original Icelandic settlers prior to its borderline VEI 5-6 eruption in the 14th century, and after had its name changed to mean “wasteland.” 

Sobering.

Iirc, the Hekla/Katla  eruptions were very rich in fluorine, which made them especially lethal for both livestock as well as people.

Oraefajokull is very much an unappreciated hazard, an explosive VEI 5 event would halt North Atlantic air traffic entirely.

[Volcanic Winter]

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/reykjanes/news/236843/Reykjanes-volcano-update-two-lava-branches-extend-in-W-and-SE-direction-western-lava-arm-flows-acros.html
 

Iceland cracked open again for a continuation of the fissure eruption near Grindavik. Some spectacular images from this event.

An Icelandic volcanologist predicts that the activity will ultimately start to lessen by July, and at that point we may see the activation of another system or even see it switch back to Fagradalsfjall.

[snowman19]

On 3/14/2024 at 1:13 PM, Brian5671 said:

I think it comes down to a few things-for a period of time he refused to acknowledge that the globe was warming...then he did but said it was not man made (Right now he insists its volcanoes underwater warming the ocean (which I cannot find any scientific support for) This along with his anti vaxx and extremist political posts on twitter have further alienated him (when was the last time you've seen him on a real network?  He used to be on several news networks regularly as a guest)  He uses an analog approach to forecasting which worked well until we entered a steeper rate of warming 10 yrs ago.   Analogs from the 1950's to the 1970's won't do much in today's warmer climate.    Thus he has busted horribly especially on temps the last few years.  My two cents but agree with your post overall.

Just read on twitter that JB is still hyping arctic cold and an Easter weekend snowstorm for the I-95 corridor on his paid site. He’s got to have some screws loose

[Brian5671]

On 3/17/2024 at 9:36 AM, snowman19 said:

Just read on twitter that JB is still hyping arctic cold and an Easter weekend snowstorm for the I-95 corridor on his paid site. He’s got to have some screws loose

Embarrassing at this point...the twitter comments are hilarious....

[Volcanic Winter]

On 3/20/2024 at 10:06 AM, Brian5671 said:

Embarrassing at this point...the twitter comments are hilarious....

“Ice age when?”

Reminds me - a couple years ago I stumbled across a climate change denial website, I think it was called ‘Electroverse.’ It was dedicated to talking about the impending ice age that’s happening any year now lol. Of course they were obsessed with the “Grand Solar Minima” that never materialized, and kept posting any cold temperature records from any specific town or village anywhere in the world on any given day. You know what they say, weather = climate right? Definitely. 

Good stuff, still waiting on my Ice Age. We know that’s my preferred climate configuration, but unfortunately I think the past two years went in roughly the exact diametric opposite direction. Wondering if that site’s still truckin’, I’d imagine they dropped the solar stuff given how spicy the sun has been, and probably focused on Asia this winter. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

“Ice age when?”

Reminds me - a couple years ago I stumbled across a climate change denial website, I think it was called ‘Electroverse.’ It was dedicated to talking about the impending ice age that’s happening any year now lol. Of course they were obsessed with the “Grand Solar Minima” that never materialized, and kept posting any cold temperature records from any specific town or village anywhere in the world on any given day. You know what they say, weather = climate right? Definitely. 

Good stuff, still waiting on my Ice Age. We know that’s my preferred climate configuration, but unfortunately I think the past two years went in roughly the exact diametric opposite direction. Wondering if that site’s still truckin’, I’d imagine they dropped the solar stuff and probably focused on Asia this winter. 

Yes when the sun when into the minimum some were talking about Maunder minimum little age coming type stuff.   That was 10-15 yrs ago and I think the verdict is in on that one....

[LibertyBell]

This is pure fiction at this point, but accuweather has rain for the day of the eclipse lol.

This long range forecast goes all the way out to May 6th!

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york/10021/daily-weather-forecast/349727

 

Sun 4/7 58° /41° 20% Mostly sunny

 

Mon 4/8 59° /48° 55% Cloudy most of the time with a touch of rain

 

55% chance of rain is really high for 17 days away

 

Tue 4/9 63° /49° 25% Times of clouds and sun

 

and back to sunny on Tuesday 4/9 lol

 

Wed 4/10 63° /39° 70% Periods of rain in the morning; otherwise, cloudy

 

wow wednesday 4/10 has a 70% chance of rain, so it's even higher