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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


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54 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s above my skill level but I’m sure someone can go pack and look at the synoptic pattern in 54 specifically. It’s really just a roll of the dice. A pattern conducive to a north east landfall exists multiple times a year, it’s just a matter of lining up a cane with said pattern. 

Maybe something happened to make those things more common back then and whatever was causing it lasted for several years before the pattern flipped?

It basically existed from 1944 to 1960.

longer heatwaves, more 100 degree temps, more northeast tropical activity, stronger severe weather outbreaks.

 

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, so 70,000 years there was a smaller Yellowstone eruption? I wonder if that had any effect on the climate back then?

 

Wow, Iwo Jima sounds like it's very capable of creating a repeat of the Christmas 2004 Tsunami.

It’s a good question, I really don’t know. Laki managed it being almost ten times smaller, but we know Laki was pretty unique. With that said, Yellowstone is giga powerful and the thermal updrafts above the volcano during that eruption had to be insane with that kind of magma volume. A lot of gas was probably reaching fairly high up there.

Really hard to describe how much magma 100 cubic kilometers is. Going back to Laki at 15km^3, were that eruption happening today it would be seen as apocalyptic (especially with the toxic gasses filling the troposphere probably down through Europe again). 

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Joe Rao thinks that the rubber band will eventually snap and NYC will go back to normal and we'll above average snows. 

He also thinks Tonga have ruined the winters in the past few years in the east.

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Joe Rao thinks that the rubber band will eventually snap and NYC will go back to normal and we'll above average snows. 

He also thinks Tonga have ruined the winters in the past few years in the east.

Let's be honest-no one can even guestimate right now about next year let alone the next few.

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26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It would be hard for JB to do worse than 2001-02 lol a lot of people canceled after that disaster.

 

 

He hung on to the bitter end there-was still calling for it to come as late as mid Feb while every day was 50 and sunny....

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The Washington Post has produced an interesting article on the increase in winter temperatures that includes an eye-catching map and listings of temperature increases per decade since 1980 for individual cities.

Winter is warming almost everywhere. See how it’s changed in your town

The Post is behind a paywall, but I think the first few articles are free.

The author even gives a detailed account of his methodology which would be of interest to data nerds here.

New Brunswick, NJ, has increased nearly 1 degree F per decade, 0.93 F.

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The severe cold and high latitude blocking bias the models have had since November has been mind blowing. Totally astonishing. Bust after bust after bust for the last 5 months in a row. Hard to believe actually. The busted digital snow fantasies in the long range have been equally as bad

i get what you're doing and i hate the snow weenies too but it's not as effective if you fire on all cylinders all the time

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20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A vanquished forecaster has attempted to shift the timeframe to undo the Groundhog's verification. From outside his burrow among the blossoms, Punxsutawney Phil has responded.

image.png.a3a368c9e14cbe56432c9c78a0bd9329.png

Going down with the ship to the bitter end....

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I'm watching a documentary on Blizzards and they are talking how the winter of 2009-2010 was great for the whole country.

 

 

 

We really need to get back to snowy winters. It will eventually happen but who knows when.

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