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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Extreme skepticism should have been applied when a winter with zero cold air and zero snowcover across the nation is suddenly expected to turn cold/snowy for a month....

Maybe people will learn something but I'm guessing most won't. Either way we had 2 good events during a hostile pattern so we should never cancel an event that doesn't look great or assume a pattern will flip to favorable and even if it does that it will automatically produce.

And my snowhole has officially filled in :D

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14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe people will learn something but I'm guessing most won't. Either way we had 2 good events during a hostile pattern so we should never cancel an event that doesn't look great or assume a pattern will flip to favorable and even if it does that it will automatically produce.

And my snowhole has officially filled in :D

and maximizing our potential (or nearly so anyway) is why this winter should be rated a C-.

If that band with the heavy snow was 30 miles north, it would go straight to B+

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3 hours ago, Pellice said:

I have a question about last Saturday's snow.  It was very light and fluffy, but it also seemed to have very high water content, melting immediately if I even lightly touched it.  Not sure I could have even gathered it into a snowball before melting.  I thought those qualities - the lightness/fluffiness and the high water content - were incompatible, that wet snow was always heavy snow, but clearly that isn't the case.  Is this type of snow rare, or was my impression incorrect?

Yeah this was bizarre how do you get such a wet snow that makes tree limbs sag down and even accumulates on wires making them sag, and yet it's a very high ratio snow of 20:1 and even 30:1?

How can wet snow be a high ratio snow?

 

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and maximizing our potential (or nearly so anyway) is why this winter should be rated a C-.

If that band with the heavy snow was 30 miles north, it would go straight to B+

Nah too much warmth and lack of snow cover to be higher than a C even in area close to average. Maybe for the interior where they cashed in multiple times in January 

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On 2/14/2024 at 11:13 PM, BxEngine said:

I just want a ridge in early march when i go to bahamas. 

Went to the Bahamas either in late March or April one year, and it was so cold, you couldn't go in the pools or the ocean.  

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I think much of my frustration stems from not enjoying the “good times” as much as I should’ve, while we were in them. I’m in my mid 30’s, much of the 2000’s my focus was on everything but the weather and it was mostly a footnote at that time of my life despite always being appreciative of snow and having a better grasp on meteorology than my friends. 

The 2010’s were my early adulthood and once again I just had too many distractions at the time to really appreciate many of the best years (especially at the beginning of the decade).

The exception was Boxing Day, being snowed in with my future wife in our North Brunswick apartment, enjoying every second of our time together and the crazy storm that was. I have to probably offer BD forward as my personal favorite snowstorm of my life. It’s simply my best snow memory. We were definitely in or near one of the CNJ jackpot areas too, because we had so much snow from that it was staggering.

We got married and moved south the year after.

Since things have settled down and I’m at a phase where I can really enjoy winter and have the time / energy to focus on tracking, etc, it’s mostly been a down era. Jan 2018 and Jan 22 were the big events for me from this period, and at least Feb 21 I had good times while at work (lingering more than I needed to at times). Got less snow that year at home than up in Union, but still great overall.

Really would love one more epic season in the next few years, the kind that would be a top memory for all of us. Maybe it’s possible, maybe it’s not in the cards. Before long we’ll probably be moving north, though the exact location is still being debated.

Can’t say I regret living down here the past ten years though, I feel like we did okay relative to what should be expected. But as things warm, it’s only going to get tougher and tougher in this location and more and more dependent on the rare, cold Jan 22 type storms to deliver any snow at all. 

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If I hadn't just gotten an unexpected foot of fluff with less than .4 liquid I'd be even more pessimistic than I am going forward. Not even hitting 24" two winters in a row is pretty disappointing though. I wish I had a decent way around this stupid warm Pacific but since I don't this pessimism is starting to win and I don't like it. I know, there's a balance and we'll find it soon enough, my worry is that balance means I live at way too low an altitude. 

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5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I think much of my frustration stems from not enjoying the “good times” as much as I should’ve, while we were in them. I’m in my mid 30’s, much of the 2000’s my focus was on everything but the weather and it was mostly a footnote at that time of my life despite always being appreciative of snow and having a better grasp on meteorology than my friends. 

The 2010’s were my early adulthood and once again I just had too many distractions at the time to really appreciate many of the best years (especially at the beginning of the decade).

The exception was Boxing Day, being snowed in with my future wife in our North Brunswick apartment, enjoying every second of our time together and the crazy storm that was. I have to probably offer BD forward as my personal favorite snowstorm of my life. It’s simply my best snow memory. We were definitely in or near one of the CNJ jackpot areas too, because we had so much snow from that it was staggering.

We got married and moved south the year after.

Since things have settled down and I’m at a phase where I can really enjoy winter and have the time / energy to focus on tracking, etc, it’s mostly been a down era. Jan 2018 and Jan 22 were the big events for me from this period, and at least Feb 21 I had good times while at work (lingering more than I needed to at times). Got less snow that year at home than up in Union, but still great overall.

Really would love one more epic season in the next few years, the kind that would be a top memory for all of us. Maybe it’s possible, maybe it’s not in the cards. Before long we’ll probably be moving north, though the exact location is still being debated.

Can’t say I regret living down here the past ten years though, I feel like we did okay relative to what should be expected. But as things warm, it’s only going to get tougher and tougher in this location and more and more dependent on the rare, cold Jan 22 type storms to deliver any snow at all. 

I take it you weren't in the area for January 2016?

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I take it you weren't in the area for January 2016?

I was, I honestly don’t remember it that well. I know it’s blasphemous to say, and I don’t really recall why. My only memories of that storm were noting the infamous NAM run prior to the event, and worrying about my garage because of the amount of snow piling up on top of it without blowing or falling off. Remember coming out and knocking as much as I could off. Rest of the storm I don’t remember. I don’t think we got all that much down here, at least not much more than some Of the other biggies like Jan 18 here. 

Holistically as a recalled experience, it’s just not even close to Boxing Day for me. I recall almost that entire event and what we were doing throughout. 

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Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

I was, I honestly don’t remember it that well. I know it’s blasphemous to say, and I don’t really recall why. My only memories of that storm were noting the infamous NAM run prior to the event, and worrying about my garage because of the amount of snow piling up on top of it without blowing or falling off. Remember coming out and knocking as much as I could off. Rest of the storm I don’t remember. I don’t think we got all that much down here, at least not much more than some Of the other biggies like Jan 18 here. 

I was looking at pictures from the 2010-11 winter and wow did we have an amazing amount of snowcover that season..... looking at pictures from Boxing Day and also in February when the snowcover was at maximum extent there were several feet of snow in my backward which made everything seem level.....

My two greatest memories of snowfall from that decade are that winter and January 2016

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I was looking at pictures from the 2010-11 winter and wow did we have an amazing amount of snowcover that season..... looking at pictures from Boxing Day and also in February when the snowcover was at maximum extent there were several feet of snow in my backward which made everything seem level.....

My two greatest memories of snowfall from that decade are that winter and January 2016

2009-2011 was stupid nuts. I was in Long Branch then North Brunswick for that period, moving to my present location for 2012. Apparently 09-10 my current location had 74 inches, which is ludicrous. 

Vivid memory of driving up to pick my wife up at her house near East Brunswick in early / mid Feb 2010 to be with her for my bday that year, during a storm that had at least ten inches on the ground at the time I was heading toward her. I’ve never been bothered by driving in snow, and for whatever reason that memory sticks out vividly. 

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

2009-2011 was stupid nuts. I was in Long Branch then North Brunswick for that period, moving to my present location for 2012. Apparently 09-10 my current location had 74 inches, which is ludicrous. 

Vivid memory of driving up to pick my wife up at her house near East Brunswick in early / mid Feb 2010 to be with her for my bday that year, during a storm that had at least ten inches on the ground at the time I was heading toward her. I’ve never been bothered by driving in snow, and for whatever reason that memory sticks out vividly. 

I found pictures from that season too, the snow happened with so much wind that the sides of my house were encased in snow!

This was from the storm at the end of February, it's the latest storm to dump 20 inches of snow at NYC since March 1888!  The anniversary is actually coming up-- it was on the 26th!

From February 2010 to January 2011, there were three 20" snowstorms!

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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I found pictures from that season too, the snow happened with so much wind that the sides of my house were encased in snow!

This was from the storm at the end of February, it's the latest storm to dump 20 inches of snow at NYC since March 1888!  The anniversary is actually coming up-- it was on the 26th!

From February 2010 to January 2011, there were three 20" snowstorms!

Yeah, we’re all incredibly lucky as snow lovers to have lived through that period, whether we recognized it at the time or otherwise. 

I do believe that was the intersection of favorable decadal variability and a “boon” from warming that hadn’t progressed to the point of hurting enough to offset things just yet. 

As I alluded to above, I hope when ‘built in’ favorability swings back around, we’re still able to capitalize on it. It’s extremely debatable and I’m not suggesting I have the answers, merely hoping. One more epic winter would go down nicely for all of us after the 2016 to present period (which of course wasn’t terrible all the time, thankfully - but it has been significantly warmer in the winter since, the temperature stats on recent winters have been extremely jarring to say the least, and we’re not talking anything theoretical here just what was actually observed). 

I’ll tell ya Liberty, I’d be extremely intrigued by a Tambora sized eruption happening in our lifetimes. Hopefully an isolated NH volcano without much direct human impact, and a classic gas composition. I don’t think we’d have much risk of a severe volcanic winter in terms of what people faced in 1816, I think we’d simple see a temporary regression in average temperatures for a couple years (we’re so far above the temperatures at the end of the LIA a volcanic winter would be a different animal today, IMO). From our current setpoint I don’t believe it’d be that severe, but a sudden decrease of ~1C would certainly feel like quite a shock.  

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16 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

2009-2011 was stupid nuts. I was in Long Branch then North Brunswick for that period, moving to my present location for 2012. Apparently 09-10 my current location had 74 inches, which is ludicrous. 

Vivid memory of driving up to pick my wife up at her house near East Brunswick in early / mid Feb 2010 to be with her for my bday that year, during a storm that had at least ten inches on the ground at the time I was heading toward her. I’ve never been bothered by driving in snow, and for whatever reason that memory sticks out vividly. 

I've been fortunate to live in other places during some of their best winters and also live here during our best winters as well. Experienced the epic 93-94 winter in state college including a 3 foot snowpack in early March. Lived outside Chicago for one winter but it happened to be during the Jan 99 blizzard. Unfortunately I spent most of the 96 blizzard on a bus headed back to school so I did miss experiencing the bulk of that one.  And I'm old enough to remember the blizzard of 83 as my first real memory of a snowstorm

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, we’re all incredibly lucky as snow lovers to have lived through that period, whether we recognized it at the time or otherwise. 

I do believe that was the intersection of favorable decadal variability and a “boon” from warming that hadn’t progressed to the point of hurting enough to offset things just yet. 

As I alluded to above, I hope when ‘built in’ favorability swings back around, we’re still able to capitalize on it. It’s extremely debatable and I’m not suggesting I have the answers, merely hoping. One more epic winter would go down nicely for all of us after the 2016 to present period (which of course wasn’t terrible all the time, thankfully - but it has been significantly warmer in the winter since, the temperature stats on recent winters have been extremely jarring to say the least, and we’re not talking anything theoretical here just what was actually observed). 

I’ll tell ya Liberty, I’d be extremely intrigued by a Tambora sized eruption happening in our lifetimes. Hopefully an isolated NH volcano without much direct human impact, and a classic gas composition. I don’t think we’d have much risk of a severe volcanic winter in terms of what people faced in 1816, I think we’d simple see a temporary regression in average temperatures for a couple years (we’re so far above the temperatures at the end of the LIA a volcanic winter would be a different animal today, IMO). From our current setpoint I don’t believe it’d be that severe, but a sudden decrease of ~1C would certainly feel like quite a shock.  

Thats what I hope for too-- what about something like Laki in Iceland again, do you think it's possible? Is Laki due for another eruption?

 

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26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I've been fortunate to live in other places during some of their best winters and also live here during our best winters as well. Experienced the epic 93-94 winter in state college including a 3 foot snowpack in early March. Lived outside Chicago for one winter but it happened to be during the Jan 99 blizzard. Unfortunately I spent most of the 96 blizzard on a bus headed back to school so I did miss experiencing the bulk of that one.  And I'm old enough to remember the blizzard of 83 as my first real memory of a snowstorm

April 1982-- did you experience that one? That's my first clear snowstorm memory.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats what I hope for too-- what about something like Laki in Iceland again, do you think it's possible? Is Laki due for another eruption?

 

Laki is just a name for the crater row generated by the eruption (Lakagigur, and the Icelandic name for the event is Skaftareldar, the Fires of the Skaftar river), the parent volcano was Grimsvotn which last erupted to VEI 4 level in 2011. 

These mega rift drainout eruptions are exceedingly rare, only three exist of Laki or greater size in the entire Holocene and two were 800 years apart (Eldgjà to Laki). Grimsvotn doesn’t have the magma right now to do it again, it was likely very deep long dormant storage getting shaken up and making a break for the surface in a truly massive rift event. 

There actually was a large rift eruption in 2014 (Holuhruan, from the Bardarbunga volcano within the Vatnajokull icecap, next to Grimsvotn). It was about 15x smaller than Laki and nowhere near as gaseous, but still tremendously large to have actively lived through. Events of that size are only once every several hundred years going by Icelandic eruptive history. 

Holuhraun however was massively larger than the Fagradalsfjall or Grindavik eruptions all put together since 2020. Trying to impart a sense of scale, Laki was beyond comprehension. The Tambora of effusive events. A genuine lava flood, or miniature flood basalt (probably the most analogous event in recorded history to one of the ancient Mesozoic flood basalt eruptions despite being thousands of times smaller). 

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3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, we’re all incredibly lucky as snow lovers to have lived through that period, whether we recognized it at the time or otherwise. 

I do believe that was the intersection of favorable decadal variability and a “boon” from warming that hadn’t progressed to the point of hurting enough to offset things just yet. 

As I alluded to above, I hope when ‘built in’ favorability swings back around, we’re still able to capitalize on it. It’s extremely debatable and I’m not suggesting I have the answers, merely hoping. One more epic winter would go down nicely for all of us after the 2016 to present period (which of course wasn’t terrible all the time, thankfully - but it has been significantly warmer in the winter since, the temperature stats on recent winters have been extremely jarring to say the least, and we’re not talking anything theoretical here just what was actually observed). 

I’ll tell ya Liberty, I’d be extremely intrigued by a Tambora sized eruption happening in our lifetimes. Hopefully an isolated NH volcano without much direct human impact, and a classic gas composition. I don’t think we’d have much risk of a severe volcanic winter in terms of what people faced in 1816, I think we’d simple see a temporary regression in average temperatures for a couple years (we’re so far above the temperatures at the end of the LIA a volcanic winter would be a different animal today, IMO). From our current setpoint I don’t believe it’d be that severe, but a sudden decrease of ~1C would certainly feel like quite a shock.  

What a would give for a VEI 7 in our lifetime. Obviously somewhere unpopulated. Say Kamchatka. I would love to walk across the Hudson to New Jersey, something that happened regularly in the LIA. Solid snow pack from mid November to mid April. The kind of winter you now have to go a thousand miles north for or over  3000’.

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Laki is just a name for the crater row generated by the eruption (Lakagigur, and the Icelandic name for the event is Skaftareldar, the Fires of the Skaftar river), the parent volcano was Grimsvotn which last erupted to VEI 4 level in 2011. 

These mega rift drainout eruptions are exceedingly rare, only three exist of Laki or greater size in the entire Holocene and two were 800 years apart (Eldgjà to Laki). Grimsvotn doesn’t have the magma right now to do it again, it was likely very deep long dormant storage getting shaken up and making a break for the surface in a truly massive rift event. 

There actually was a large rift eruption in 2014 (Holuhruan, from the Bardarbunga volcano within the Vatnajokull icecap, next to Grimsvotn). It was about 15x smaller than Laki and nowhere near as gaseous, but still tremendously large to have actively lived through. Events of that size are only once every several hundred years going by Icelandic eruptive history. 

Holuhraun however was massively larger than the Fagradalsfjall or Grindavik eruptions all put together since 2020. Trying to impart a sense of scale, Laki was beyond comprehension. The Tambora of effusive events. A genuine lava flood, or miniature flood basalt (probably the most analogous event in recorded history to one of the ancient Mesozoic flood basalt eruptions despite being thousands of times smaller). 

If that eruption was in 2014, could it have caused the extremely cold winter of 2014-15?  That February was colder than anything I could have imagined in our current era....

 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If that eruption was in 2014, could it have caused the extremely cold winter of 2014-15?  That February was colder than anything I could have imagined in our current era....

 

It’s unlikely as Holuhraun didn’t have 2km high lava fountains / overall explosive components that Laki had, and the enormous thermal updrafts Laki generated are probably the reason why it was even able to impact the climate. 99% of effusive events do not and are nowhere near the peak intensity of Laki, Holuhraun included. 

Laki was an exceedingly rare exception and also just a very unique volcanic event in general. 

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1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s unlikely as Holuhraun didn’t have 2km high lava fountains / overall explosive components that Laki had, and the enormous thermal updrafts Laki generated are probably the reason why it was even able to impact the climate. 99% of effusive events do not. 

Laki was an exceedingly rare exception and also just a very unique volcanic event in general. 

Laki was also the only time I've heard of fluorine gas being released into the air.... fluorine is extremely deadly!

 

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