Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I believe the maps are purposely skewed in some way to fit his east coast cold and snow obsession. The guy isn’t right mentally. Make no mistake about it, no matter what happens with the PDO (which will extremely likely be negative), his analogs for next winter will be 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. It’s already a predetermined done deal in his warped mind

 Really? Wow if true! So, in this case, are you saying you believe that WB is purposely skewing the colors on the Pacific SSTa maps to make it show a +PDO when it really is a -PDO? I don’t believe that but I suppose anything’s possible until if/when there’s an explanation.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 New from JB:

“Now the CFSV2 is trying to forecast a warm PDO for the winter”

“this would resemble a blend of the SST of 10-11,13-14,14-15”

 

 Once again, he’s relying on what I feel are bogus WB CFS SSTa maps like the one above. Yes, that looks like a +PDO. But it doesn’t matter if it is bogus like I think it is. Why does it have the warmest Pac waters, other than near Japan, just off N.A. and a 1,000 by 4,000 mile area of cold waters in the W to CPAC (to just N of Hawaii)??

 To compare, here’s the -PDO shown on the latest TT CFS SSTa map for NDJ using 1984-2009 climo (DJF not out yet on TT): is orange where huge blue WB area is (including N of Hawaii) and only yellow/white (cooler) just off N.A. So, TT -PDO for NDF vs WB +PDO for DJF for the same model! You can’t make this stuff up!

 

By the way here’s TT CANSIPS for DJF: strong -PDO

@snowman19@donsutherland1@Brian5671

IMO, the probability of a PDO+ is very low given the ENSO forecast. Moreover, the NCEP version of the CFSv2 maps shows no PDO+ developing through the October-December period (end of its timeframe). The WeatherModels version shows PDO- for all three winter months. I suspect WxBell's maps are incorrect. As Winter 2024-25 is still in fantasyland, I can't completely rule out the prospect, but I think even from this far out, such an outcome is very unlikely.

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Really? Wow if true! So, in this case, are you saying you believe that WB is purposely skewing the colors on the Pacific SSTa maps to make it show a +PDO when it really is a -PDO? I don’t believe that but I suppose anything’s possible until if/when there’s an explanation.

I wouldn’t put anything past him. Back during the winter, he purposely posted maps in degrees Celsius and snow in centimeters to make them seem colder and snowier hoping no one would notice. The man is twisted 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I wouldn’t put anything past him. Back during the winter, he purposely posted maps in degrees Celsius and snow in centimeters to make them seem colder and snowier hoping no one would notice. The man is twisted 

that's absolutely hilarious because I remember in one of his rants years ago he yelled about how much he hates the metric system lol

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I wouldn’t put anything past him. Back during the winter, he purposely posted maps in degrees Celsius and snow in centimeters to make them seem colder and snowier hoping no one would notice. The man is twisted 

  Did the maps show positive departures? Were they red/orange/yellow, etc?

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

that's absolutely hilarious because I remember in one of his rants years ago he yelled about how much he hates the metric system lol

 

Just like he hates the “warm biased” CFS until it shows what he wants

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

  Did the maps show positive departures? Were they red/orange/yellow, etc?

No but would it surprise you if the WB maps were skewed in some way to purposely show his wishcast of a +PDO? 

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No but would it surprise you if the WB maps were skewed in some way to purposely show his wishcast of a +PDO? 

1. Not at all but I’d still prefer to see further analysis in this case before assuming that, which would be awful if true. For example, is there some alternative potential explanation for WB CFS showing that ~4,000,000 sm area from N of Hawaii westward being BN when other CFS maps showed mainly AN there (i.e., WB colder) while at the same time WB CFS has solid AN just off N Amer vs NN to slightly BN on others (i.e., WB warmer)? If they were both either colder or warmer, I’d suspect algo bias. But in this case, one is colder and other is warmer. So, if not algo bias, what could it be besides intentional manip? Isn’t there possibly some other explanation?

2. You said he purposely posted SN maps in cm vs inches to make look snowier. I follow that. But I don’t follow how him posting maps in C vs F would make it look colder. Please explain.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Not at all but I’d still prefer to see further analysis in this case before assuming that, which would be awful if true. For example, is there some alternative potential explanation for WB CFS showing that ~4,000,000 sm area from N of Hawaii westward being BN when other CFS maps showed mainly AN there (i.e., WB colder) while at the same time WB CFS has solid AN just off N Amer vs NN to slightly BN on others (i.e., WB warmer)? If they were both either colder or warmer, I’d suspect algo bias. But in this case, one is colder and other is warmer. So, if not algo bias, what could it be besides intentional manip? Isn’t there possibly some other explanation?

2. You said he purposely posted SN maps in cm vs inches to make look snowier. I follow that. But I don’t follow how him posting maps in C vs F would make it look colder. Please explain.

In the scientific world, this has been done often out of greed, you should read the false reports coming out of the fossil fuel companies and also the sugar industry about their products.

 

[rclab]

We may need a crises intervention team. Anthony posted “Pizza is gross in Rhode Island”  … in the New England sub forum. As always, …..

[Rjay]

On 5/3/2024 at 12:36 PM, GaWx said:

 Actually, the bigger issue here may be why the WB CFS SSTa maps are so wacky as opposed to the never ending JB cold winter bias.

 Do y’all see what I’m seeing? This isn’t the first time. I’m not saying it is intentional. But why are they so far off?

@snowman19

It's intentional 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

We may need a crises intervention team. Anthony posted “Pizza is gross in Rhode Island”  … in the New England sub forum. As always, …..

why is he in Rhode Island? There's so many better places to go this time of year.

Have you ever seen the movie Mystic Pizza? He should take the short drive to SE CT to get some real pizza.

[snowman19]

Looks like this year’s solar maximum is going to be the biggest in over 20 years.

Link:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/the-sun-is-super-active-right-now-heres-how-it-can-affect-electronics-on-earth

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.

 JB wishcasting aside, 24 is very likely going to have a 150++ ACE. This is due to the combo of a very warm MDR (now 2nd warmest on record) and highly likely La Niña, especially based on RONI.

 Wouldn’t that put him in a conundrum though? It works for 95-6 and 10-1. But 13/14 had ACE of only 36/67, weakest/5th weakest of the current active era. So, if 24 would end up very active and if he then uses that to support 95-6 and 10-1 as good analogs, how would he then justify also holding onto 13-4 and 14-5 as analogs?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.

 The new Euro has not only cooled ENSO significantly vs its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw of course):

 

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro has not only reversed its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw of course):

 

And the north pac is progged even hotter (more deeply negative PDO)

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.

He is stirring up a "Witches' Brew" of analogs for which the selection seems more astrological than scientific in nature. 1995-96 was a much weaker La Niña event than is currently forecast with a PDO+. 2010-11 featured extreme blocking. 2013-14 was a Neutral ENSO event. 2014-15 was an El Niño winter. It should be noted that every strong La Niña since 1950 featured a negative PDO. These discontinuities suggest that there is no objective framework behind the analog selection. Very likely, his desire to forecast a cold and snowy winter (possibly as an argument that winters aren't warming, an argument he lost long ago) is the guiding force driving his emerging winter idea. That his past two winter forecasts have been debacles does not seem to have discouraged him from trying again. Random chance may sometimes intervene, but the lack of an objective forecasting framework assures that he won't see consistent forecasting success.

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 JB wishcasting aside, 24 is very likely going to have a 150++ ACE. This is due to the combo of a very warm MDR (now 2nd warmest on record) and highly likely La Niña, especially based on RONI.

 Wouldn’t that put him in a conundrum though? It works for 95-6 and 10-1. But 13/14 had ACE of only 36/67, weakest/5th weakest of the current active era. So, if 24 would end up very active and if he then uses that to support 95-6 and 10-1 as good analogs, how would he then justify also holding onto 13-4 and 14-5 as analogs?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

@donsutherland1 
He doesn’t care, that’s the thing. He will find some way, somehow to use the coldest and snowiest analogs he can no matter what. It’s kind of like how he kept repeating over and over, even into December, that the El Niño was becoming a Modoki and used 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs. 

And he has a real big problem if he’s going to argue for a big -NAO/-AO winter (i.e. 95-96, 10-11), possible volcanic stratosphere and +QBO aside, the solar max we are in very, very strongly argues against it. As you stated, in the last 45 years, since 79-80, every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had, without exception, has occurred during a solar minimum with low sunspots and low geomag. That’s not a coincidence.

Further, SSWEs are extremely unlikely during a La Niña with a +QBO and high solar, in fact, that combination is the LEAST likely to produce a SSW, with El Niño, -QBO, low solar being the most likely to produce one

[etudiant]

Seems to me that JB uses analogs extensively, sometimes that works super, Sandy being the prime example, sometimes (perhaps more often than not) it does not.

So he is one of the sources that amateurs like me try to keep up with, recognizing his biases. I'd guess that for his paying members, just one outlier call that eventuates will pay for a century's worth of subscriptions.

So Perhaps consider him as the counterpoint opinion, often astray, but still useful.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

He is stirring up a "Witches' Brew" of analogs for which the selection seems more astrological than scientific in nature. 1995-96 was a much weaker La Niña event than is currently forecast with a PDO+. 2010-11 featured extreme blocking. 2013-14 was a Neutral ENSO event. 2014-15 was an El Niño winter. It should be noted that every strong La Niña since 1950 featured a negative PDO. These discontinuities suggest that there is no objective framework behind the analog selection. Very likely, his desire to forecast a cold and snowy winter (possibly as an argument that winters aren't warming, an argument he lost long ago) is the guiding force driving his emerging winter idea. That his past two winter forecasts have been debacles does not seem to have discouraged him from trying again. Random chance may sometimes intervene, but the lack of an objective forecasting framework assures that he won't see consistent forecasting success.

Interesting thing about 2010-11 which I remember you pointed out is that it was much more like La Ninas of old back in the 1910s which were very snowy and cold-- I wonder why that winter was so much like those winters from over a century ago?

 

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro has not only cooled ENSO significantly vs its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw of course):

 

Also, it’s suggesting more of a central based (coldest anomalies) or Modoki La Niña 

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting thing about 2010-11 which I remember you pointed out is that it was much more like La Ninas of old back in the 1910s which were very snowy and cold-- I wonder why that winter was so much like those winters from over a century ago?

 

 I don’t have NAO data from the 1910s. But I can say that back to 1950, 2010-1 had the strongest -NAO for DJ for La Niña on record (season snowfall and DJF temperatures also shown):

2010-1: -1.4/61.9”/temps -3

1970-1: -1.2/15.5”/temps -2

1995-6: -0.9/75.6”/temps -3

1984-5: -0.8/24.1”/temps 0 (N)

2020-1: -0.7/38.6”/temps 0 (N)

1954-5: -0.6/11.5”/temps 0 (N)

NAO monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

 Regarding the 1910s, these were the La Niña winters per Eric Webb along with their NYC DJF temperatures/full season snowfall (avg 29.8”) using 1901-30 for the base period:

1909-10: 1 BN/~24”

1910-1: 0 (N)/27.2”

1916-7: 1 BN/50.7”

1917-8: 7 BN/34.5”

NYC data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Eric Webb ENSO 1910s:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t have NAO data from the 1910s. But I can say that back to 1950, 2010-1 had the strongest -NAO for DJ for La Niña on record (snowfall also shown):

2010-1: -1.4/61.9”

1970-1: -1.2/15.5”

1995-6: -0.9/75.6”

1984-5: -0.8/24.1”

2020-1: -0.7/38.6”

1954-5: -0.6/11.5”

NAO monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

 Regarding the 1910s, these were the La Niña winters per Eric Webb along with their NYC DJF temperatures/full season snowfall (avg 29.8”) using 1901-30 for the base period:

1909-10: 1 BN/~24”

1910-1: 0 (N)/27.2”

1916-7: 1 BN/50.7”

1917-8: 7 BN/34.5”

NYC data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Eric Webb ENSO 1910s:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I think a couple of things lead to the -AO/-NAO blocking that winter (10-11)…first and foremost, the solar minimum and low geomag, it also started out as a very east-based La Niña. It migrated west as that winter wore on and became much more west-based/Modoki at the end of January, then the blocking vanished in February and it never came back again 

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t have NAO data from the 1910s. But I can say that back to 1950, 2010-1 had the strongest -NAO for DJ for La Niña on record (season snowfall and DJF temperatures also shown):

2010-1: -1.4/61.9”/temps -3

1970-1: -1.2/15.5”/temps -2

1995-6: -0.9/75.6”/temps -3

1984-5: -0.8/24.1”/temps 0 (N)

2020-1: -0.7/38.6”/temps 0 (N)

1954-5: -0.6/11.5”/temps 0 (N)

NAO monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

 Regarding the 1910s, these were the La Niña winters per Eric Webb along with their NYC DJF temperatures/full season snowfall (avg 29.8”) using 1901-30 for the base period:

1909-10: 1 BN/~24”

1910-1: 0 (N)/27.2”

1916-7: 1 BN/50.7”

1917-8: 7 BN/34.5”

NYC data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Eric Webb ENSO 1910s:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Yes that's the one 2010-11 was compared to 1916-17

Interesting that 1917-18 was historically cold but 1916-17 was snowier.  Although both were great winters in their own right.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting thing about 2010-11 which I remember you pointed out is that it was much more like La Ninas of old back in the 1910s which were very snowy and cold-- I wonder why that winter was so much like those winters from over a century ago?

 

The extreme blocking of December 2010 and January 2011 locked in the cold air. Once the blocking ended, the explosive snowfall and sustained cold were largely finished.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The extreme blocking of December 2010 and January 2011 locked in the cold air. Once the blocking ended, the explosive snowfall and sustained cold were largely finished.

But was the reason for the extreme blocking the same as what we had in 1916-17? And has such extreme blocking always been historically rare, or is it only this rare in our new climate OR is it that in our new climate we need this kind of extreme blocking to get very high snowfall totals? Getting at least 50" of seasonal snowfall seems to require it.

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But was the reason for the extreme blocking the same as what we had in 1916-17? And has such extreme blocking always been historically rare, or is it only this rare in our new climate OR is it that in our new climate we need this kind of extreme blocking to get very high snowfall totals? Getting at least 50" of seasonal snowfall seems to require it.

There's no definitive answer in the literature. While 50" seasons remain possible at decreasing frequency, there will likely come a time when such blocking is necessary to assure the kind of sufficient cold for a 50" season.

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The extreme blocking of December 2010 and January 2011 locked in the cold air. Once the blocking ended, the explosive snowfall and sustained cold were largely finished.

HM sounded the alarm at the beginning of November, 2010 that the troposphere and stratosphere were “talking” and massive, sustained high latitude -NAO/-AO blocking was coming. Again, IMO, this was due to both the solar state and the extremely east-based nature of the La Niña in the early to mid part of that winter. As soon as the event moved into the western ENSO regions by the end of January and was no longer east-based, the blocking completely folded like a deck of cards and fell apart, then winter ended for all intents and purposes in February 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think a couple of things lead to the -AO/-NAO blocking that winter (10-11)…first and foremost, the solar minimum and low geomag, it also started out as a very east-based La Niña. It migrated west as that winter wore on and became much more west-based/Modoki at the end of January, then the blocking vanished in February and it never came back again 

I wonder why -NAO are now much more likely in Spring in  a solar maximum year rather than in winter?  Next winter looks like it will lack blocking for all intents and purposes just like this winter has and the one before it, but why are we getting these blocks in Spring now which did not happen in the 1990s? If you look at solar maximums from the 1990s, like 1991, we had a positive NAO for most of the year so every month was well above normal (22 out of 24 above normal months.)