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April 2023


Rtd208
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Showers and perhaps thundershowers are possible tonight into tomorrow morning. A general 0.50"-1.00" of rain is likely with some locally higher amounts. Afterward, the sun will return and it will remain mild for one more day.

A sustained cool period will develop just after the weekend and continue into the opening days of May. The opening days of May could also see the first period of much above normal warmth develop in the Pacific Northwest. A cool period in the East is supported by the MJO's having moved into Phase 8, along with the development of strong Atlantic blocking. That blocking is forecast to fade during the first week of May leading to the possible development of a return of warmer conditions during the second week of the month. Given the timeframe involved, there remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -26.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.255 today.

On April 20 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.615 (RMM). The April 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.635 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

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23 minutes ago, Rjay said:

At a friend's house in Merrick. It's been absolutely pouring here for over an hour.  Some thunder and lightning as well. 

Good morning Rjay. NWS NOAA CPK as of 12:51am, .65 total. Rain is currently moderate to heavy over the postage stamp. We are both up late, hopefully for different reasons. Stay well and dry. As always …

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