CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 80kts at 925 over head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Tress may be compromised out west if tomorrow night verifies on the higher end. I was just thinking that... Could well have smaller scale issue Friday night into early Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Good animation Paul....look at that lead shortwave get pretty far east before it gets captured/phased back with the northern stream ULL...that is key to a big hit outside of the Berkshires/highest elevations. Sorry if this has been answered… whats a good analog for this one with this track and stall and loop.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow Too warm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Shades of 18 times 3 Yes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that kind of solution is where dynamic cooling would actually occur. 925mb temps are more useful here Anytime you get legit heavy rates, it's going to latently cool the sfc to near freezing. With those rates and height falls shown on the Euro, it's going to be heavy snow under the CCB even in low elevations. If we end up with a system that produces only moderate rates, then the lower levels will definitely play a much larger role in preventing accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Too warm for the coast. nah, 925mb temps drop to -2 to -1 with a massive CCB overhead. would rip to the coast verbatim 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Too warm for the coast. Back this way it's not. That intensity and wind direction and rates under the CCB it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: nah, 925mb temps drop to -2 to -1 with a massive CCB overhead. would rip to the coast verbatim Thanks! It drives me crazy when people ignore dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Anytime you get legit heavy rates, it's going to latently cool the sfc to near freezing. With those rates and height falls shown on the Euro, it's going to be heavy snow under the CCB even in low elevations. If we end with with a system that produces only moderate rates, then the lower levels will definitely play a much larger role in preventing accumulations. yup, March is go big or go home. nice to see the ECMWF and UKMET agree. that used to be a deadly combo at this range, but who even knows now the EPS will be interesting. I'd like to see more of these show up 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 also, as silly as it sounds to mention, -1C is 30 degrees. makes a big difference if the lower levels are that cold. you're also getting adiabatic cooling. it would snow there, no question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, FXWX said: I would not yet try to bullseye the most worrisome zone, but that euro depiction screams a zone of significant tree damage could be in play wherever the real paste job sets up. Could be more than just a small localized area??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just imagine this. I mean there would certainly be a subsidence screw zone but given the evolution the chances of the CCB traversing the majority of the region would be high and this would likely sit and pivot somewhere...that's when you're going to be talking about the potential for some obscene totals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I’d take my chances here with that look 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: The forecast was toast. Well... the power may be out, so no power for the toasters 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Back this way it's not. That intensity and wind direction and rates under the CCB it's snow. Yeah on second glance it would prob be fine. But I'm sure nothing will go wrong in 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Ummm I'll take the Euro for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Yeah on second glance it would prob be fine. But I'm sure nothing will go wrong in 5 days Just enjoy the current modeling life's too short 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Could be a nice secondary deformation band out this way, just hope it’s here not in E NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 That might be the best Euro run we’ve had yet for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Sorry if this has been answered… whats a good analog for this one with this track and stall and loop.. reminds me a little of the Jan 2015 blizzard? Could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The weather was unseasonably mild just before the blizzard, with heavy rains that turned to snow as temperatures dropped rapidly.[3] On March 12, New York City dropped from 33 °F (1 °C) to 8 °F (−13 °C), and rain changed to snow at 1am.[5] The storm began in earnest shortly after midnight on March 12 and continued unabated for a full day and a half. In a 2007 article, the National Weather Service estimated that this nor'easter dumped as much as 50 inches (130 cm) of snow in parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts, while parts of New Jersey and New York had up to 40 inches (100 cm).[2] Most of northern Vermont received from 20 inches (51 cm) to 30 inches (76 cm).[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 EPS looks just east of elbow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, as silly as it sounds to mention, -1C is 30 degrees. makes a big difference if the lower levels are that cold. you're also getting adiabatic cooling. it would snow there, no question There hasn’t been any discussion about wind potential. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 On March 10, temperatures in the Northeast hovered in the mid-50s. But on March 11, cold Arctic air from Canada collided with Gulf air from the south and temperatures plunged. Rain turned to snow and winds reached hurricane-strength levels. By midnight on March 11, gusts were recorded at 85 miles per hour in New York City. Along with heavy snow, there was a complete whiteout in the city when the residents awoke the next morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, masonwoods said: There hasn’t been any discussion about wind potential. Thoughts? windy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks just east of elbow. Moves a bit east from 0z. The op runs was almost perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Save the fairy tales for bedtime. Thank you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: On March 10, temperatures in the Northeast hovered in the mid-50s. But on March 11, cold Arctic air from Canada collided with Gulf air from the south and temperatures plunged. Rain turned to snow and winds reached hurricane-strength levels. By midnight on March 11, gusts were recorded at 85 miles per hour in New York City. Along with heavy snow, there was a complete whiteout in the city when the residents awoke the next morning Ahhhh 1888. I knew someone would bring it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 lmao seriously though, it would be impressive. but let's get the 500mb down first. long way to go 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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