ROOSTA Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 There are some 40" amounts showing up in NE PA on that run. Widespread 1-2'+ for local New England area. BOMBS AWAY! I'll only have a FROPA drop in temperature, a passing boomer or two. Locals here will be hyping a late season cold wave. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I'm not concerned with the EPS, at least at this stage. If anything, we now have pinned this down to a very narrow corridor of track/development. With that, it's all just going to come down to precise timing of when the phasing occurs. I suspect we are going to be walking a fine line until probably 24-hours out b/c a very slight difference (slightly earlier vs. slightly later) is going to mean the world (for many). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: I'm not concerned with the EPS, at least at this stage. If anything, we now have pinned this down to a very narrow corridor of track/development. With that, it's all just going to come down to precise timing of when the phasing occurs. I suspect we are going to be walking a fine line until probably 24-hours out b/c a very slight difference (slightly earlier vs. slightly later) is going to mean the world (for many). I'd be. Little cold around and nothing to prevent this from becoming a stemwinder over Kevin's fanny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 36 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Sorry if this has been answered… whats a good analog for this one with this track and stall and loop.. I know most folks don't like them, but: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: OP is probably right in the middle of the EPS....I think this makes a whiff a lot less likely now, but I never really bought the whiff idea. I've always been more concerned with ptype in this one. The key will be that lead southern streamer staying ahead of the northern stream long enough. At hr 108, the op definitely has the low with the srn vort that is offshore. That makes a wider hook. The mean must have members not showing this because I don't see the same feature at H5 on the mean, that the op shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I'd be. Little cold around and nothing to prevent this from becoming a stemwinder over Kevin's fanny. In that regard, yes that is definitely a concern, but on the other hand, if this materializes like the 12z Euro, it wouldn't be much of a concern. Obviously (outside of the elevations and interior) we're looking for near-perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: At hr 108, the op definitely has the low with the srn vort that is offshore. That makes a wider hook. The mean must have members not showing this because I don't see the same feature at H5 on the mean, that the op shows. Yeah I'm sure several of the ensemble members just absorb it into the northern stream early on....or don't ever really see it. I'd like to see a bit better continuity on the northern stream though...it's been jumping around a little too much for my liking on a typical D4-5 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'd be. Little cold around and nothing to prevent this from becoming a stemwinder over Kevin's fanny. CT is golden 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I know most folks don't like them, but: Some nice storms in there... I see 3/10/2001 as #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Euro has really liked the Wachusett area on the 12z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I do not like that EPS...wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At hr 108, the op definitely has the low with the srn vort that is offshore. That makes a wider hook. The mean must have members not showing this because I don't see the same feature at H5 on the mean, that the op shows. He 108 is getting to the spot where prioritize OP over EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nah...doesn't change my thoughts...just suprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'd be. Little cold around and nothing to prevent this from becoming a stemwinder over Kevin's fanny. I agree. We were told to look at the ensembles, not the ops. Well, we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nah...doesn't change my thoughts...just suprised. 12z EPS was better than 00z. 00z took a tighter turn south of LI which made it a bit less snowy....it was 06z that was quite a bit east, but the 06z OP run only went to 90h so we never saw it's final solution. I think this is going to move around a bit though over the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: CT is golden I’m not feeling great for a big one here. It should snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I agree. We were told to look at the ensembles, not the ops. Well, we are. My thoughts are that that the mean is dragged west by: 1) OTS members disappearing 2) Inland members diverging from the OP by phasing faster around the day 4 window, which is near the window when OP should be waited more. I still think this is big snows, but if EPS goes west again, then that probably changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'd be. Little cold around and nothing to prevent this from becoming a stemwinder over Kevin's fanny. yeah...convention ( and for good reason) at this range is to lean on ensemble means - interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: CT is golden Shower? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I still hate that stupid low appendage to the NW thanks to that ULL. It really screws the flow up until it goes to town. I don't think that is going away though. Which is why the clown maps don’t go wild like other runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I agree. We were told to look at the ensembles, not the ops. Well, we are. ENS still show members which are very solid and great hits. Yes it has members which are certainly west and inland, but right now, any scenario of big hit vs. mostly rain is in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My thoughts are that that the mean is dragged west by: 1) OTS members disappearing 2) Inland members diverging from the OP by phasing faster around the day 4 window, which is near the window when OP should be waited more. I still think this is big snows, but if EPS goes west again, then that probably changes. Even if the EPS holds serve it won't be good for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Even if the EPS holds serve it won't be good for many. It won't. Its ultimately either going to cluster to the east or west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Which is why the clown maps don’t go wild like other runs I’m expecting shattered dendrite baking powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I really wouldn't want to be in an interior valley for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: ENS still show members which are very solid and great hits. Yes it has members which are certainly west and inland, but right now, any scenario of big hit vs. mostly rain is in play Quite a few more members were inland than at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Euro construct 3 to 4mb > sfc PP across Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Quite a few more members were inland than at 0z. True, but all that does at this stage is keep expectations at bay and just illustrates that subtle differences regarding the timing of phasing will have a huge impact overall. 18z or 0z could tick more east with the majority of members...that wouldn't or shouldn't change any thinking yet...we're still a bit too far out in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Obviously rooting for the wider hook and tug here. Any other scenario is pretty much a wash here. Even the former would be rain for a chunk. UKMET and EURO OP compromise would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Eweather just posted this on Twitter. Eps ensembles, from 6z Tuesday to 6z Wednesday, top to bottom. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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