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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's a bit red flaggy for me.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-t850_mslp_prcp6hr

You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-vort500_z500-8784

There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west.

So you side with NAM?

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's a bit red flaggy for me.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-t850_mslp_prcp6hr

You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-vort500_z500-8784

There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west.

I really hope your right. 

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JMA also has double centered low but components closer, western over RI at 54h.

Calculated the weighted six-model consensus and came up with this scenario: to simplify, take GGEM but instead of its unified low, at all time frames 42h to 54h allow for a two-centered system 2 deg long apart, in other words, one would be 1W and the other 1E. Consolidate them in eastern center by 60h. Based on that, first call forecasts:

se MA all rain until tail end of storm, 1-3"

BOS mixed periods giving 3-6" followed by 4-7" all snow, pack at end 8"

PWM 5-8" snow

CON 8-12" snow

(Ray some taint followed by mostly snow, 7-10"

ORH 15-18"

PVD rain followed by snow, 3-6"

(Kev) 10-14"

BDL 5-8"

s CT mostly rain ends as 2-5" snow

PSF 18"

ALB 16"

NYC 2-4"

ISP sleet, rain, melting snow to coating at end

________________

If solution is more unified one-center low and GGEM proves best guidance, then double most of those other than NYC. 

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And that’s what the nam did.

Gives a colder solution too when you get that cold conveyor going earlier. The convective southern streamer chasing east prevents the conveyor from getting established earlier. 

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2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

JMA also has double centered low but components closer, western over RI at 54h.

Calculated the weighted six-model consensus and came up with this scenario: to simplify, take GGEM but instead of its unified low, at all time frames 42h to 54h allow for a two-centered system 2 deg long apart, in other words, one would be 1W and the other 1E. Consolidate them in eastern center by 60h. Based on that, first call forecasts:

se MA all rain until tail end of storm, 1-3"

BOS mixed periods giving 3-6" followed by 4-7" all snow, pack at end 8"

PWM 5-8" snow

CON 8-12" snow

(Ray some taint followed by mostly snow, 7-10"

ORH 15-18"

PVD rain followed by snow, 3.6"

(Kev) 10-14"

BDL 5-8"

s CT mostly rain ends as 2-5" snow

PSF 18"

ALB 16"

NYC 2-4"

ISP sleet, rain, melting snow to coating at end

________________

If solution is more unified one-center low and GGEM proves best guidance, then double most of those other than NYC. 

 

Man, reading that was like trying to learn calculus, but your amounts make sense.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gives a colder solution too when you get that cold conveyor going earlier. The convective southern streamer chasing east prevents the conveyor from getting established earlier. 

Yep. Thought for a second euro might, but it scooted way east. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

THat would be a yes haha.

Hope he’s right and into something. The NAM makes more sense with the one string low..as does the CMC. 
 

At 2am when we were sure on a region wide monster…the European looked like it was, and had been leading the way. Now it looks like it’s doubting itself chasing convection. 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Stick to your guns . Wether I agree with or not . It’s your ideas and if someone else wants to make their OWN map let them , but don’t let them effect yours . That’s how you learn and improve , I think lol 

JV models were big snows here at 12z, but the euro kind of stomped all over that a bit. Staying a bit conservative for now 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

JV models were big snows here at 12z, but the euro kind of stomped all over that a bit. Staying a bit conservative for now 

I don’t buy the dual low thing but we will see. The difference between your forecast and mine is just 1 or 2 degrees, that’s it. Tough forecast.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

THat would be a yes haha.

Anecdotally, I think one outcome of increasing resolution of modeling is that as we near the ability to resolve convection it plays havoc with other fields. Yes, in a region of intense thunderstorms the surface pressure will be lower, but it will not take over as the dominant center unless the upper levels support it. 

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

JV models were big snows here at 12z, but the euro kind of stomped all over that a bit. Staying a bit conservative for now 

They are all JV models this season so I wouldn’t weigh one over the others. It would be nice to get a consensus by 0z tonight but the way things are going, even if we did, tomorrow’s 12z will throw a few curveballs anyway. 

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And this is where I have my issues with the Euro now.  After 2 am when the Euro showed a monster…the old Euro would have held that solution, and you’d be able to take the big solution to the bank, and right into go time two days later.  
 

Now at barely two days out…it’s Jumping around like it never used to before..this is what is sad.  

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Anecdotally, I think one outcome of increasing resolution of modeling is that as we near the ability to resolve convection it plays havoc with other fields. Yes, in a region of intense thunderstorms the surface pressure will be lower, but it will not take over as the dominant center unless the upper levels support it. 

We saw that last year with the Jan blizzard. Although euro wasn’t chasing like it is now.

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