WeatherX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Yes, it's always just the tip! Ahoy mateys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's a bit red flaggy for me. You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship. There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west. So you side with NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's a bit red flaggy for me. You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship. There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west. I really hope your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: And that’s what the nam did. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: So you side with NAM? ninja! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 JMA also has double centered low but components closer, western over RI at 54h. Calculated the weighted six-model consensus and came up with this scenario: to simplify, take GGEM but instead of its unified low, at all time frames 42h to 54h allow for a two-centered system 2 deg long apart, in other words, one would be 1W and the other 1E. Consolidate them in eastern center by 60h. Based on that, first call forecasts: se MA all rain until tail end of storm, 1-3" BOS mixed periods giving 3-6" followed by 4-7" all snow, pack at end 8" PWM 5-8" snow CON 8-12" snow (Ray some taint followed by mostly snow, 7-10" ORH 15-18" PVD rain followed by snow, 3-6" (Kev) 10-14" BDL 5-8" s CT mostly rain ends as 2-5" snow PSF 18" ALB 16" NYC 2-4" ISP sleet, rain, melting snow to coating at end ________________ If solution is more unified one-center low and GGEM proves best guidance, then double most of those other than NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So you side with NAM? I would say the NAM at least has a surface low where I would expect it to be based on 500 mb. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And that’s what the nam did. Gives a colder solution too when you get that cold conveyor going earlier. The convective southern streamer chasing east prevents the conveyor from getting established earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The more you start TOSSING you'll end-up with nothing. One of these models is (will be) less wrong then another. Million-dollar question, which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Into CT? I don't remember that at all. I remember a later phase not a nip low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: JMA also has double centered low but components closer, western over RI at 54h. Calculated the weighted six-model consensus and came up with this scenario: to simplify, take GGEM but instead of its unified low, at all time frames 42h to 54h allow for a two-centered system 2 deg long apart, in other words, one would be 1W and the other 1E. Consolidate them in eastern center by 60h. Based on that, first call forecasts: se MA all rain until tail end of storm, 1-3" BOS mixed periods giving 3-6" followed by 4-7" all snow, pack at end 8" PWM 5-8" snow CON 8-12" snow (Ray some taint followed by mostly snow, 7-10" ORH 15-18" PVD rain followed by snow, 3.6" (Kev) 10-14" BDL 5-8" s CT mostly rain ends as 2-5" snow PSF 18" ALB 16" NYC 2-4" ISP sleet, rain, melting snow to coating at end ________________ If solution is more unified one-center low and GGEM proves best guidance, then double most of those other than NYC. Man, reading that was like trying to learn calculus, but your amounts make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My first call: Stick to your guns . Wether I agree with or not . It’s your ideas and if someone else wants to make their OWN map let them , but don’t let them effect yours . That’s how you learn and improve , I think lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gives a colder solution too when you get that cold conveyor going earlier. The convective southern streamer chasing east prevents the conveyor from getting established earlier. Yep. Thought for a second euro might, but it scooted way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would say the NAM at least has a surface low where I would expect it to be based on 500 mb. THat would be a yes haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just when I gave the Euro some credit on its consistency with this…it goes snd does that shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My first call: I would go 10-15 in the 1-3 area (except the cape, there would be a sharp cutoff there due to low location), 16-24 in the 4-8 area, and 24-30 in the berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Leaning conservative here. Flash over from heavy rain to snow with 3-6”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: THat would be a yes haha. Hope he’s right and into something. The NAM makes more sense with the one string low..as does the CMC. At 2am when we were sure on a region wide monster…the European looked like it was, and had been leading the way. Now it looks like it’s doubting itself chasing convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Leaning conservative here. Flash over from heavy rain to snow with 3-6”. I think your location will be much snowier. 925s torch you a much shorter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Stick to your guns . Wether I agree with or not . It’s your ideas and if someone else wants to make their OWN map let them , but don’t let them effect yours . That’s how you learn and improve , I think lol JV models were big snows here at 12z, but the euro kind of stomped all over that a bit. Staying a bit conservative for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 It’s pretty clear Dave and Jeff can chuck em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 UK was 5°F colder at the surface here at 18z Tuesday than its previous run, yet the Euro was 6°F warmer than 0z run. It was all about that nipple. The Euro had it and UK didn't. Same with the 925 thermals at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s pretty clear Dave and Jeff can chuck em. And Jeff comes home tired from riding, gets some rest, opens a new bottle of Crown and sits back smiling watching sne weenies kill each other.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: JV models were big snows here at 12z, but the euro kind of stomped all over that a bit. Staying a bit conservative for now I don’t buy the dual low thing but we will see. The difference between your forecast and mine is just 1 or 2 degrees, that’s it. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: THat would be a yes haha. Anecdotally, I think one outcome of increasing resolution of modeling is that as we near the ability to resolve convection it plays havoc with other fields. Yes, in a region of intense thunderstorms the surface pressure will be lower, but it will not take over as the dominant center unless the upper levels support it. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: JV models were big snows here at 12z, but the euro kind of stomped all over that a bit. Staying a bit conservative for now They are all JV models this season so I wouldn’t weigh one over the others. It would be nice to get a consensus by 0z tonight but the way things are going, even if we did, tomorrow’s 12z will throw a few curveballs anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: And Jeff comes home tired from riding, gets some rest, opens a new bottle of Crown and sits back smiling watching sne weenies kill each other.. I mean Ineedsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 And this is where I have my issues with the Euro now. After 2 am when the Euro showed a monster…the old Euro would have held that solution, and you’d be able to take the big solution to the bank, and right into go time two days later. Now at barely two days out…it’s Jumping around like it never used to before..this is what is sad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, OceanStWx said: Anecdotally, I think one outcome of increasing resolution of modeling is that as we near the ability to resolve convection it plays havoc with other fields. Yes, in a region of intense thunderstorms the surface pressure will be lower, but it will not take over as the dominant center unless the upper levels support it. We saw that last year with the Jan blizzard. Although euro wasn’t chasing like it is now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I hope the EPS proves the op runs to be off it's rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I mean Ineedsnow Well he moved to Templeton to “meet his need”…. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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