Floydbuster Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 Time goes so fast that even though it feels like the islands just got slammed by Irma and Maria, that was already six years ago, a similar time frame from between Hugo 1989 and Luis 1995. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 GFS is into the Northern Lesser Antilles. I'm not sure what new data comes in that changes models that much in 6 hours. Over a week out, into the Caribbean vs missing the islands to the N is probably noise. It still looks like it will try to miss ECUSA, but its early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: A more intense storm is more likely to be pulled poleward and thus out to sea versus a weaker one. This is why some storms that have had significant trouble organizing have ended up unexpectedly going into the Caribbean instead of on an E coast threatening trajectory or ots. Yes, that’s definitely true, but what I think is different here is strong consensus on the first big Atlantic ridge over the basin keeping this west. That’s enough to get it to the islands. All bets are off after. 57 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: GFS is into the Northern Lesser Antilles. I'm not sure what new data comes in that changes models that much in 6 hours. Over a week out, into the Caribbean vs missing the islands to the N is probably noise. It still looks like it will try to miss ECUSA, but its early. It’s way too far out, but just having the above ridge on the ensembles is problematic imo because the guidance has been underselling the ridges we’ve seen thus far. I’d still think that troughing over the E Coast could be around for a late kick, but you never know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 21 hours ago, GaWx said: -Usually the best bet for an E MDR system since 75%+ don't hit the US although nowhere near a safe bet at least yet imo -12Z UKMET: still has TCG but unlike the prior run having TCG on Sunday, this waits til Wednesday (9/6). With the delay, it is notably weaker but is still in a potentially dangerous position at 168 (9/8) 300 miles E of the Leewards moving WNW at 15 mph: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.2N 44.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.09.2023 120 14.2N 44.1W 1010 27 0000UTC 07.09.2023 132 14.1N 46.7W 1009 29 1200UTC 07.09.2023 144 14.9N 49.0W 1007 37 0000UTC 08.09.2023 156 15.4N 51.8W 1007 31 1200UTC 08.09.2023 168 16.1N 54.9W 1007 34 Just going to be an ace producer that’s it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 2, 2023 Author Share Posted September 2, 2023 I'm surprised that no one mentions that quite a few 6z gfs ensembles loop Idalia back into the NE http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 3, 2023 Share Posted September 3, 2023 The UKMET texts used to just have weak, moderate, strong and intense, not sure why they include wind and pressure when they are always low. The ensembles suggest the pattern won't change. I'd think just the changing seasons would make it change. But apparently not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 3, 2023 Share Posted September 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: The UKMET texts used to just have weak, moderate, strong and intense, not sure why they include wind and pressure when they are always low. The ensembles suggest the pattern won't change. I'd think just the changing seasons would make it change. But apparently not. I use the conservative UKMET much more for position than for strength. It was the best by a good margin for Ian and one of the best for Irma and Idalia once within a few days of landfall. For strength, it is the trend rather than the actuals that are usually more informative. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Idalia barely made a scratch unfortunately but nice to see some churning up out there. It will be fun to see how quickly that recovers coming up here. I will say I do not like the prospects of troughing being centered across the upper midwest/lakes region. Too far west to keep us from potential issues and with ridging into eastern Canada/ NW Atlantic definitely need to watch this system. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Gert is currently being absorbed into Idalia in a perfect example of the Fujiwara effect. Cool to watch on satellite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Gert is currently being absorbed into Idalia in a perfect example of the Fujiwara effect. Cool to watch on satellite Yes; although this image is made a lot smaller to be uploadable and downloadable quickly enough, the unique patterns are still visible!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 All major models now showing yet another potentially strong CV storm about a week behind Lee, NOT the current NHC marked orange. Looks like we're getting our answer of which will win the El Nino vs hot Atlantic... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 The coffers are full in the ATL and El Niño is getting the Turkey shit kicked out of it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3dcg Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 3 hours ago, cptcatz said: All major models now showing yet another potentially strong CV storm about a week behind Lee, NOT the current NHC marked orange. Looks like we're getting our answer of which will win the El Nino vs hot Atlantic... hmmmm - Monday 18 Sep 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Would the exiting Lee leave a weakness allowing that storm to safely recurve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Based on modeling, it doesn't look like the Atlantic MDR is done, staying busy for at least a few more weeks. That being said, a +ENSO is still strengthening. Sub-tropical jet placement and shear across the Caribbean and MDR that was experienced in August has since subsided, which, to no coincidence, we have a developing major hurricane coming. But El Niño is still there, and perhaps it will have more effects to close out September into October. At any rate, despite a strong El Niño, I was wrong on ASO below normal activity. Very wrong. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 1 hour ago, bigtenfan said: Would the exiting Lee leave a weakness allowing that storm to safely recurve? Not necessarily. 1996 is a good reference in regards to a strong recurving cane followed by a east coast hit a few days later 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Invest 96L looks great, my guess is this may be "Margot" already if their is a circulation underneath that bursting convection. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Wow, go back 3 weeks and I’d just like to admit how wrong I was about this season. The Caribbean was sheared, TUTTs were running rampant across the Atlantic, the east coast trough was more dominant than the monsoon trough in western Caribbean, and SAL was killing all African waves shortly after they entered the Atlantic. With ENSO and the promise of El Niño shear becoming an increasing part of the picture, I openly questioned CSUs bullish prediction. How wrong I was. We have entered a hyperactive period in an El Niño year. If you told me the last 10 days of august would feature 6 named storms, 2 majors, and we’d carry that into September I’d laughed at you. But here we are. Lee is going to be a high end hurricane and Margot looks like another storm with major hurricane potential. Just wow for an El Niño year. I admit defeat, I was so very wrong 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Margot is also here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 On 8/9/2023 at 10:38 AM, ldub23 said: The actual tropics are never favorable anymore whether its el nino, la nina or lo neutro have not seen idub23 since the tropics became super active.. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Sure why not reload and try again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3dcg Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 12 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Sure why not reload and try again Looks like a decent circulation off the coast. Wonder when NHC starts picking up on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 This time next week should look interesting 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Kinda interesting that it seems odds are quite good that Nova Scotia will get some hurricane-like impacts from Lee. In the last 4 years, Lee will be the 4th (post) tropical cyclone to make landfall on Nova Scotia, along with Dorian, Teddy, and Fiona. Also interesting is that all four storms peaked at cat 4 or 5. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Gulf/Caribbean on the ensembles look like February, as far as tropical cyclones go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Don't be surprised to see another storm or two off Africa before the Cape Verde season turns off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 00z GFS weenie run, basically worst case scenario for the mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 GFS continues to show long range storm threat of some sort September 24th. This is the 3rd or 4th run in a row. Unlikely to be correct but worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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