Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,497
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PhiEaglesfan712
    Newest Member
    PhiEaglesfan712
    Joined

2023 Atlantic Hurricane season


Stormchaserchuck1
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Did we have 2 systems upgraded to named storms in a single day last year?  Of course not.  I think we'll have 3 named storms in 3 days, but the numbers will be 3/1/0 for August, Maybe 4/1/0.  I think a below normal numbers and ACE season, but nothing like the LDub season cancel.  Gulf has poor steering and shear/dry air, but I'd bet money on a major hurricane landfalling Florida in October.  The OHC will still be immense in 2 months, and normal (climatological) mean steering favors Gulf to Florida.  Probably not a storm with enough lifespan to make ACE normal, but a short lived Cat 3 or 4 is a Cat 3 or 4.  Looking for a model that supports thay, none so far.

A 5/2/2 August would not be a big shocker considering the # of features being followed/modeled as well as the very warm Atlantic. So, I'd say most likely anywhere from 3/1/0 to 5/2/2. As was just posted, Franklin becoming a MH wouldn't be that surprising. Ldub's highly successful career as a pure entertainer/troll stretches for two decades although even he/she can end up right at times due as much to luck as anything.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  I'm predicting Nino 3.4 will be +1.3 in tomorrow's weekly release, not too far from getting into the strong category. Yet, this hurricane season is now about as busy as can be in terms of number of features being followed south of 30N!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

TD-6 has been upgraded to Gert...unfortunately. Needless to say I don't think this one's going to put up a lot of ACE

Tropical Storm Gert Special Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the
northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt.  Conventional enhanced
infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the
same region of the cyclone.  Accordingly, the depression is
upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory.

No changes to the forecast track and intensity philosophy are
required.  Since the environment is still expected to be
hostile with very strong westerly shear during the next day or so, 
Gert should degenerate into a remnant low later today, and 
dissipate by Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0400Z 16.7N  55.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 16.8N  57.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

TD-6 has been upgraded to Gert...unfortunately. Needless to say I don't think this one's going to put up a lot of ACE

Tropical Storm Gert Special Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the
northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt.  Conventional enhanced
infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the
same region of the cyclone.  Accordingly, the depression is
upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory.

No changes to the forecast track and intensity philosophy are
required.  Since the environment is still expected to be
hostile with very strong westerly shear during the next day or so, 
Gert should degenerate into a remnant low later today, and 
dissipate by Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0400Z 16.7N  55.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 16.8N  57.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Honestly hilarious, at the 11 PM advisory they said it was dying and it immediately blows up and becomes a storm 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Did we have 2 systems upgraded to named storms in a single day last year?  Of course not.  I think we'll have 3 named storms in 3 days, but the numbers will be 3/1/0 for August, Maybe 4/1/0.  I think a below normal numbers and ACE season, but nothing like the LDub season cancel.  Gulf has poor steering and shear/dry air, but I'd bet money on a major hurricane landfalling Florida in October.  The OHC will still be immense in 2 months, and normal (climatological) mean steering favors Gulf to Florida.  Probably not a storm with enough lifespan to make ACE normal, but a short lived Cat 3 or 4 is a Cat 3 or 4.  Looking for a model that supports thay, none so far.

 -With the upgrade of TD6 to Gert, August is already up to 3/1/0. 

 -Gert now joins Arlene, Bret, Cindy, and Emily as names that go back at least to 1981 and which will return in the 2029 list.

 - Arlene at 12 times had already been the most frequently used Atlantic name through 2023. Now it will be back for at least #13.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 -With the upgrade of TD6 to Gert, August is already up to 3/1/0. 

 -Gert now joins Arlene, Bret, Cindy, and Emily as names that go back at least to 1981 and which will return in the 2029 list.

 - Arlene at 12 times had already been the most frequently used Atlantic name through 2023. Now it will be back for at least #13.

 

Gert probably should have been retired after the '93 version caused extensive fatalities and damage in Mexico and Central America

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gert

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was envisioning 91L becoming a Category 1 Hurricane "Gert" into South Texas/Northern Mexico. I guess now it'd be Harold.


I swear, the wave off Africa better be a fish because I do not want another infamous "I" storm, and the long-range models show another wave leaving Africa after the current one and being more a potential threat to landmasses west.

If TD-6 hadn't become Gert, then the Gulf would have likely been Gert, the wave off Africa currently could have become Harold, setting up the next wave with more of a threat potential to be "Idalia". With TD-6 becoming Gert, this now wouldn't happen. It would likely be "Jose".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Franklin is the only one that looks worthy enough to have a name.

Gert and emily  should  never  have been named. Just  getting  numbers  up. Euro has  come way down on Frankie. I dont  know about  1893 but  comparing this garbage to 1995 is  beyond a  joke

 

202308211310.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Emily was legit. Gert was name worthy for like 14 minutes. 

Im not even sure Gert was more than a single thunderstorm gust. I woke up and saw Gert this morning and looked at the satellite and immediately became confused as to what actually constituted Gert bc whatever was there last night was already completely gone. Never have I missed the formation and death of a named storm while I slept 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Im not even sure Gert was more than a single thunderstorm gust. I woke up and saw Gert this morning and looked at the satellite and immediately became confused as to what actually constituted Gert bc whatever was there last night was already completely gone. Never have I missed the formation and death of a named storm while I slept 

Same. I thought they named 91L but then I was like wait what?!?

After all the defending I do of the NHC they do this to me. :lol: :axe: 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Emily was legit for a short time and Gert was an absolute joke.  Never would have been named back in the 70's, 80's or 90's.   There is just more of this going on in recent years.  System in the Gulf "has the look" but will run out of water before it can get out of hand.  Thinking it will be designated at least a depression and MAYBE a TS.  Regardless, it will bring much needed rainfall to Texas.  Franklin only one of the bunch that will generate any meaningful ACE points. 

Any comparison of this "burst" of names to 1995 is absurd.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, SI Mailman said:

Gert probably should have been retired after the '93 version caused extensive fatalities and damage in Mexico and Central America

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gert

Mexico had a history of not often requesting retirement of names until the past 10 years or so. Emily (2005) was a good example of that. Struck Mexico twice as a major caused $1B damage in 2005 and wasn't retired. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Emily was legit for a short time and Gert was an absolute joke.  Never would have been named back in the 70's, 80's or 90's.   There is just more of this going on in recent years.  System in the Gulf "has the look" but will run out of water before it can get out of hand.  Thinking it will be designated at least a depression and MAYBE a TS.  Regardless, it will bring much needed rainfall to Texas.  Franklin only one of the bunch that will generate any meaningful ACE points. 

Any mention of this "burst" to 1995 is absurd.

 A couple of us just yesterday were talking about how the NHC has been too slow this season to date in upgrading systems vs years like 2020 and possibly overreacting to criticism then.

Example:

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean a bunch of one day minimal TS is not going to catch anyone’s attention but Gert still being a TS surprises me. The center is way removed from the convection and looks to be completely falling apart under franklins outflow and though there might be a few 35kt winds in that thunderstorm it just doesn’t look like the definition of a tropical cyclone to me. The storms on top of the LLC aren’t even associated to Gert, it is that sheared 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I wonder if all this activity, though weak, may work to mix the ocean up and decrease some of the crazy hot SST anomalies we’ve had to this point. A large % of the basin is covered in Clouds and rain from all of these storms 

 I'd think this should help cool the water some. But as of yesterday per OISST, the MDR SST anomaly was still very warm and actually it had warmed the last three days:

IMG_8002.png.58f3330b9b6e6089b30bbbdd960e5af8.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

Emily done... Gert will be done by this evening 

Might be less than 2 ACE points between them when all is said and done.

Gert will hang on until 5 pm as a named system only because they didn't pull the plug at 11, which they easily could have done.

Looks pathetic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...