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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season


Stormchaserchuck1
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I am expecting a slow season for 2023. Anything active to hyperactive would really be unexpected. Though last year was a decline versus the decadal uptick in activity since 2016, we still had some strong long-trackers even if overall ACE was lower than previous seasons. This year, I believe a moderate El Nino will dominate the tropics and substropics. That being said, we could still have a couple of strong landfalls. And as has been repeated over and over again, it only takes one.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I think Hadley Cell expansion could correlate to more activity (recent):

PNA Feb-Apr (this year qualifies as extreme -(plus analogs)):

minus2022.. 14NS-

plus2021... 21NS

plus2020.. 30NS

plus2018.. 15NS*

minus2017.. 17NS-

minus2016.. 15NS

minus2014.. 8NS

plus2009.. 9NS*

4 -PNA.. 19NS/yr

4 +PNA.. 13NS/yr

*2009 and 2018(plus) did go into an El Nino and only had 12NS/yr

-2022 and 2017(minus) did go into La Nina and had 15.5NS/yr

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FWIW, AccuWeather predicting a near normal season in ACE and numbers, suggestion of a lot of recurves, Florida Peninsula to Carolinas most at risk in Lower 48.

 

Forecast +2C ASO looking at latest posted models from El Nino page would suggest below average.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweathers-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/1503557

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On 4/1/2023 at 3:40 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not over 15 named storms in El Nino, I think ever.. maybe this year we'll break it, at 16. 

Nino thread has the latest Euro ENSO forecasts, and it is about +2 anomaly 3.4 ASO, which would suggest a nearly dead season.  The ENSO forecasts get better as the transitional season ends, but the trend has been climbing from a Nino to an all caps NINO.  Euro long range looks very dry in the Caribbean and Gulf (rainfall reflects the Nino in the Eq. Pacific), the near normal Atlantic might suggest what little hurricane season happens would be out to sea or East Coast.  Not tropical related, but Winter 72-73 mentioned in that thread, and I remember the year w/o a snow day on Long Island.

DryCaribGulf.png

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1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

994 mb at landfall in Louisiana (well, it bounces off the coast Tuesday evening (0Z Wednesday)) on 0Z GFS, developing just SE of the base of a 500mb trough that is beyond positive tilt.  It starts developing under 60-70 knots of W shear, shear becomes negligible by the landfall or bounce off LA as an upper low forms over the forecast system.

gfs_uv250_seus_21_GFS_AprilSTS.png

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1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

994 mb at landfall in Louisiana (well, it bounces off the coast Tuesday evening (0Z Wednesday)) on 0Z GFS, developing just SE of the base of a 500mb trough that is beyond positive tilt.  It starts developing under 60-70 knots of W shear, shear becomes negligible by the landfall or bounce off LA as an upper low forms over the forecast system.

gfs_uv250_seus_21_GFS_AprilSTS.png

Per another BB per pro met "57":

"WSW jet stream of 80-110 kts over the NE Gulf next week. Looks like a non-tropical west Gulf low. Not uncommon in winter and early spring.
Tremendous shear"

 With it being only April and with the GFS having numerous fakes the last few years, I'm going with "57" on this even knowing that he tends to be bearish.

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35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per another BB per pro met "57":

"WSW jet stream of 80-110 kts over the NE Gulf next week. Looks like a non-tropical west Gulf low. Not uncommon in winter and early spring.
Tremendous shear"

 With it being only April and with the GFS having numerous fakes the last few years, I'm going with "57" on this even knowing that he tends to be bearish.

Insomnia, pinched nerves L-3 to S-1 causing discomfort in the legs.. If 57 is who I think he is (from the Y2K site), he is a Houston based energy meteorologist and a big part of that is GOMEX forecasting.  He tends to be correct, if memory serves.

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7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Insomnia, pinched nerves L-3 to S-1 causing discomfort in the legs.. If 57 is who I think he is (from the Y2K site), he is a Houston based energy meteorologist and a big part of that is GOMEX forecasting.  He tends to be correct, if memory serves.

 That's him! In the latest from "57", it appears that he's subtly caved somewhat. Earlier he said "non-tropical", which usually implies neither tropical nor subtropical since subtropical has some tropical characteristics. Now he's saying "not remotely tropical" and that the NHC could classify it as "STS Arlene":


"I do think that a low pressure center will develop south of Louisiana next Tue-Wed, but it will not be remotely tropical. Winds may reach 35kts along the SE LA coast by Wednesday. We see these type of low centers often during the winter months. Wouldn't put it past the NHC calling it STS Arlene. Winds may peak at 35-40 kts, with little chance of becoming stronger, given the extremely high wind shear over it. High pressure to its north will produce the gradient north of the low center."

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Dr. Phil has a doctorate but with a major or super Nino almost inevitable, I think 13 NS doesn't happen unless ENSO busts this Summer.  I'd take 1982 or 1997, add 4 or 5 because the 21st Century does seem busier/warmer Atlantic, myself.  Majors sounds about right.  1992 is a good example of a dead season with a major US landfall.  I don't see normal ACE happening, but I am looking at one factor.  The Nino is important, if it fails to develop, the other factors favor an active season (180 ACE is the statistical prediction w/o ENSO). 

 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf

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1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Dr. Phil has a doctorate but with a major or super Nino almost inevitable, I think 13 NS doesn't happen unless ENSO busts this Summer.  I'd take 1982 or 1997, add 4 or 5 because the 21st Century does seem busier/warmer Atlantic, myself.  Majors sounds about right.  1992 is a good example of a dead season with a major US landfall.  I don't see normal ACE happening, but I am looking at one factor.  The Nino is important, if it fails to develop, the other factors favor an active season (180 ACE is the statistical prediction w/o ENSO). 

1969 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf

1969 is an analogue year mentioned by CSU, and despite the Nino (albeit barely a Nino), held the record for most hurricanes until 2005.

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2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Dr. Phil has a doctorate but with a major or super Nino almost inevitable, I think 13 NS doesn't happen unless ENSO busts this Summer.  I'd take 1982 or 1997, add 4 or 5 because the 21st Century does seem busier/warmer Atlantic, myself.  Majors sounds about right.  1992 is a good example of a dead season with a major US landfall.  I don't see normal ACE happening, but I am looking at one factor.  The Nino is important, if it fails to develop, the other factors favor an active season (180 ACE is the statistical prediction w/o ENSO). 

 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf

 Regarding Phil's list of 1969, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2015: 

- The best guess I have as of now for 2023 is for a Nino peak of +1.3 to +1.9 with a best guess near +1.7.

- 1969 (18/12/3) peaked at only +0.9, 2004 (15/9/6) at only +0.7, 2006 (10/5/2) at only +0.9, 2012 (19/10/2) at only +0.4, and 2014 (8/6/2) at only +0.7. These five average 14/8.4/3. So, I'd be inclined to lower those years' numbers to make them more usable.

- 2015 peaked way up at +2.6. So, I'd be inclined to raise 2015's numbers (11/4/2) to make it more usable.

- That leaves 2002 (+1.3 peak) with 12/4/2 and 2009 (+1.6 peak) with 9/3/2 as the best analogs of this group and thus I'd be inclined to not adjust these. These two average 10.5/3.5/2.

- 2023 appears to currently be close to the warmest in the Atlantic on record and that, alone, is a somewhat bullish factor (how bullish in the face of a high end moderate or stronger Nino is the very hard to answer question) vs the listed 8 analogs. My leaning is to add only a little for this as the listed years are already assuming near to warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic.

- So, lower the 5 weak ENSO years' average of 14/8.4/3, raise 2015's 11/4/2, and don't adjust 2002/2009's average of 10.5/3.5/2. The 2nd and 3rd are in conflict. From this, my best guess would be to go with 12/5/2. Then I'd adjust this slightly upward to account for the current near record warm Atlantic. That gets me to 13/6/2.

- So, my current best guess for 2023 fwiw (worth at least the price paid for this ;)) is for 13/6/2. Phil just happens to also be at 13/6/2. So, I like his prediction. :)
 

- I now need to come up with my ACE. Phil has 100.

 ACE: the five too weak ENSO years averaged 140. This needs to be adjusted downward. 2015's 81 needs to be upped. 2002/09 averaged 76 and needs no adjustment for the ENSO side of the equation......hmmmm....

- Based on the above along with a slight upward adjustment for the very warm Atlantic, I'm going with ACE of 87 as of now to go along with my first guess of 13/6/2.

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Tropical season is almost here :) 

I do not have high expectations for the coming season, but watching the CSU presentation yesterday I’m intrigued by how the seasonal forecasts progress through June. I’m not yet convinced we go to a super niño, and the anomalously warm Atlantic may offset some of the suppressive tendencies of a weaker niño. 

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I wanna say we have a busy start to the season while Nina conditions atmospherically still exist with the tropics moistening up a bit due to the transition into a El Nino state will help moisten up tropics and subtropics in the Atlantic. Think we start early and end early if we do actually get an El Nino of more than weak forming. Really curious how this goes honestly, wouldn't be surprised to get near the average if not slightly more named storms ( Average 14 NS, 7 H, 3 M for reference).

Interesting to see the Caribbean being a sinkhole would definitely fit the mode of transitioning into El Nino but also open the door for east coast hits and if ones can sneak in GOM hits.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The latest Australian BoM model just came out, predicting a super El Niño by August. This, taken with the current record high sea surface temperatures, is likely to drive record high global temps during the second half 2023. Interestingly, the Atlantic is still running high. If we get a pocket of favoribility over the Atlantic during August or September, we may still observe some decent Atlantic canes. But obviously, if we do so in fact experience a super El Niño, that window of activity should remain small.

If systems get in the right place at the right time, SSTs should be favorable for an intense hurricane or two in the Atlantic. But I don't think the Atlantic hurricane season is going to be the main weather news unfolding if indeed a super El Niño unfolds. Global SSTs are far above mean even in comparison to the last 40 years. We could see some extreme regional weather events such as hyper drought and floods. At any rate, here we are....
514b3263792629d4dba40f54f1561b51.jpg

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

The latest Australian BoM model just came out, predicting a super El Niño by August. This, taken with the current record high sea surface temperatures, is likely to drive record high global temps during the second half 2023. Interestly, the Atlantic is still running high. If we get a pocket of favoribility over the Atlantic during August or September, we may still observe some decent Atlantic canes. But obviously, if we do so in fact experience a super El Niño, that window of activity should remain small.

If systems get in the right place at the right time, SSTs should be favorable for an intense hurricane or two in the Atlantic. But I don't think the Atlantic hurricane season is going to be the main weather news unfolding if indeed a super El Niño unfolds. Global SSTs are far above mean even in comparison to the last 40 years. We could see some extreme regional weather events such as hyper drought and floods. At any rate, here we are....
514b3263792629d4dba40f54f1561b51.jpg

 So, BoM has +2.5 for ASO. Though anything's possible, I feel that's way warmer than what will verify then and even probably for the peak. The record high ASO back to 1850 is only +2.2 and just about all other models so far haven't been as warm as this BoM. Plus there tends to be a warm bias overall at this time of year. This will be interesting to follow.

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 So, BoM has +2.5 for ASO. Though anything's possible, I feel that's way warmer than what will verify then and even probably for the peak. The record high ASO back to 1850 is only +2.2 and just about all other models so far haven't been as warm as this BoM. Plus there tends to be a warm bias overall at this time of year. This will be interesting to follow.
I think the idea here is that even if the BoM is overdone, a moderate to strong El Niño is looking ever more likely. But perhaps the possibility of a super Niño is on the table, which I wasn't even considering before.
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On 4/30/2023 at 11:09 PM, Windspeed said:

 

It makes sense intuitively, a warm MDR partially offsets the effects of ENSO.  Assuming we are heading to 2C super-Nino territory, the numbers of the El NIno years is probably lower, as that number for El Nino is for warm ENSO's that are weak, strong or super.  I don't know if there are enough super-Nino years with a warm MDR to derive meaningful numbers.

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