2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 11/10/2023 at 10:02 PM, MattPetrulli said:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system 
while it meanders in the Caribbean Sea through the latter part of 
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

NHC was up to a cherry, it is now back to an orange.

[jbenedet]

Weird seeing lemons and cherries for theoretical points of interest and nothing for where the observations continue to be most indicative of tropical development in the north central GOM. 
 

I get the guidance has been pessimistic on development of this feature since it’s inception, but that’s also why it’s just “guidance”. 

[jbenedet]

Not an STC? 

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-01-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

 

And the flood watch is on the east coast of Florida, think it is off by 100 miles, we are getting nailed in the Ft Myers area.

[jconsor]

Mesovortex off the coast of SE FL is causing impacts similar to a tropical storm there.  Widespread gusts to 50-60 mph, locally up to around 75 mph:
 

 

[jconsor]

There is a decent chance this system becomes a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the next day or two as it heads NE up the Gulf Stream.
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Welp, time to close the book. This was my most successful peak season forecast yet. Will be hard to replicate in the future. 

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (15)
Hurricanes: 6 (6)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (3)

Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy (H)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Good job. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On the one hand, I wonder what the NMME verification is at 8 months lead time, probably not particularly high.  OTOH, El Nino should go neutral early in the season, and I see forecasts for the Atlantic to be cooler next season.  

2024 thread will be interesting.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Season is probably done but maybe not, eastern Gulf storm looks almost tropical storm, and westward moving low in subtropics could be a stat padder (for me anyway). 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[thunderbolt]

Depicting Inland Watches/Warnings on Cone

• New experimental cone graphic depicting inland U.S. tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings will become available in 2024
• Will help convey wind hazard risk
• Graphic may not be available as soon as the current cone graphic due to the time need to compile complete inland watch and warning information
• Will be available beginning on or around August 15, 2024

Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 1