2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

The 12Z UKMET (typically overly conservative model) is significantly stronger than the 0Z with the W Car/GOM TC (partially due to being over water longer) with a TS instead of just a TD and 10 mb lower SLP. Also, instead of it moving NE across S FL, it moves NE from the FL Big Bend across N FL into the Atlantic:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 20.9N  86.3W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 27.08.2023   72  20.9N  86.3W     1005            22
    0000UTC 28.08.2023   84  21.2N  85.7W     1003            24
    1200UTC 28.08.2023   96  22.8N  84.8W     1002            36
    0000UTC 29.08.2023  108  24.8N  83.7W     1000            36
    1200UTC 29.08.2023  120  27.2N  83.6W      997            38
    0000UTC 30.08.2023  132  28.6N  83.4W      994            37
    1200UTC 30.08.2023  144  30.3N  82.1W      994            40
    0000UTC 31.08.2023  156  32.3N  79.5W      993            41
    1200UTC 31.08.2023  168  34.4N  77.1W      996            39

 

[MattPetrulli]

[hawkeye_wx]

The new Euro is similar to the last few... the system spins around in the far nw Caribbean for a couple days, but doesn't organize much.  It only revs up once it's shooting northeast in the eastern gulf.

[WxWatcher007]

First time we’ve been seeing run to run consistency on actual development. GFS has vorticity but never gets development going. It’s a complicated forecast, but I do think something is going to lift into the Gulf. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

It seems to me there are few patterns where some part of Florida isn't at risk of a TC landfall June to mid November.

A trough definitely doesn't support it, as we have a stronger one setting up now, veering Franklin out to sea. The -PNA at Day 15 is still taking shape on models, but it looks like it could pair up with +NAO, which again is a EC, US ridge signal (at day 15+). 

[NorthHillsWx]

This system developing in NW Caribbean feels like something you’d see spin up in October, not August. The Atlantic has a late season feel to it at the moment 

[Windspeed]

This system developing in NW Caribbean feels like something you’d see spin up in October, not August. The Atlantic has a late season feel to it at the moment 

Well, I mean, we did just have what would normally be a mid-to-late August Caribbean cruiser get smacked to all hell, then get kicked NNE of the Greaters by unrelenting Caribbean SW flow. Hrmmm.... But we may still get a major out this thanks to near virtually perfect timing.

[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This system developing in NW Caribbean feels like something you’d see spin up in October, not August. The Atlantic has a late season feel to it at the moment 

Everything has a late season feel to it up here.  The weather up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has been nothing resembling August.   The trees up here have been changing colors now for weeks and it is not drought related.   We have only touched 90 degrees twice the entire month.  Honestly there has been a NW, N, or NNE, NE flow up here since basically the fronts have never stopped coming.  It should be really interesting to see what happens September to March.  

[hlcater]

2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Everything has a late season feel to it up here.  The weather up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has been nothing resembling August.   The trees up here have been changing colors now for weeks and it is not drought related.   We have only touched 90 degrees twice the entire month.  Honestly there has been a NW, N, or NNE, NE flow up here since basically the fronts have never stopped coming.  It should be really interesting to see what happens September to March.  

Someone has not looked at a 500mb map for at least the last 10 days and it shows 

[Floydbuster]

Please name the low pressure in the Atlantic so we don't have another stupid "I" name storm for the U.S. landfall!

[Windspeed]

Please name the low pressure in the Atlantic so we don't have another stupid "I" name storm for the U.S. landfall!

Sorry, bro. Better practice Idalia. Like a vidalia onion, only no "V"....

[Floydbuster]

Ugh. Should've never named Gert LOL

 

[TPAwx]

Interesting set up for TB region.  
 

Most likely a miss but if steering supports East and it picks up more heat could be problematic.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 8/26/2023 at 9:00 AM, Windspeed said:

Sorry, bro. Better practice Idalia. Like a vidalia onion, only no "V"....

Like a Vid-AH-li-a onion, it is a Spanish name.  All the English ones have been used.  Finnish has some good I names.

[jacindc]

Like a Vid-AH-li-a onion, it is a Spanish name.  All the English ones have been used.  Finnish has some good I names.

They are going to have to retire "I" names altogether.

[cptcatz]

Just now, jacindc said:

They are going to have to retire "I" names altogether.

Lol just make it like the 13th floor of buildings

[jconsor]

2023 is turning out much more active than a typical El Nino so far.  No mod-strong Nino has seen as much ACE to date.
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[yoda]

Yay another tropical cyclone that will be gone in 72 hours 

[GaWx]

ACE has risen to 39, slightly higher than the 30 year average for the date. 
 

 Aside: As the tropics get very active, you know who gets quiet. Same pattern most every time. That strategy helps make him/her effective. 

[Windspeed]

ACE has risen to 39, slightly higher than the 30 year average for the date. 
 
 Aside: As the tropics get very active, you know who gets quiet. Same pattern most every time. That strategy helps make him/her effective. 

Aside from others, I'll eat some crow here. Granted, these two systems aren't from the MDR (which is still struggling due to the current pattern). Franklin formed out of a monsoon trough that collapsed. Idalia is the result of a CA surface trough. Either way, I gave up on the August window of activity. Not making excuses. We can have exceptions to the rule. Whether or not the MDR comes alive after Franklin and Idalia are gone will be the next course on the menu. It's still an El Niño year, but the Atlantic is now producing majors. Will it keep on keeping on remains to be seen.

[GaWx]

 The 0Z UKMET has a new TC forming in the far SE MDR at hour 78. This is for the AEW following the current E MDR orange. What's notable about it is that it is quite aggressive considering how conservative it usually is. It has it down to 999 mb at 168 hours at 12.9N, 40.7W, moving steadily WNW. That means it could threaten the LAs in 10 days. What should be concerning to the LAs is that the Euro has something similar along with notable members on the last several EPS runs. In addition, the GFS, CMC, and ICON have it though it looks to recurve on those:

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 :  9.7N  15.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 02.09.2023   84  10.3N  17.7W     1007            46
    0000UTC 03.09.2023   96  10.9N  19.0W     1007            34
    1200UTC 03.09.2023  108  12.1N  22.9W     1008            30
    0000UTC 04.09.2023  120  11.6N  26.7W     1008            28
    1200UTC 04.09.2023  132  11.7N  30.9W     1007            35
    0000UTC 05.09.2023  144  11.7N  34.9W     1004            36
    1200UTC 05.09.2023  156  12.2N  38.1W     1001            38
    0000UTC 06.09.2023  168  12.9N  40.7W      999            46

[GaWx]

The 12Z UKMET still has that MDR TC that the Euro and other models have though it isn't as strong as the 0Z:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.1N  20.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 03.09.2023   84  10.1N  20.2W     1009            28
    1200UTC 03.09.2023   96  10.3N  22.8W     1009            25
    0000UTC 04.09.2023  108  12.1N  26.6W     1009            26
    1200UTC 04.09.2023  120  12.4N  30.5W     1008            27
    0000UTC 05.09.2023  132  12.9N  34.2W     1008            29
    1200UTC 05.09.2023  144  13.4N  38.2W     1007            31
    0000UTC 06.09.2023  156  13.9N  41.0W     1006            33
    1200UTC 06.09.2023  168  14.2N  44.3W     1004            38

[cptcatz]

Euro, CMC, Icon, and UK all show MDR development in 5 days. I wonder when we get a new lemon. This looks like it could be a long tracker ACE maker. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Euro, CMC, Icon, and UK all show MDR development in 5 days. I wonder when we get a new lemon. This looks like it could be a long tracker ACE maker. 

 

Caveat: not that knowledgeable about tropical dynamics.

On the euro: It looks like there's quite a bit of shear present north of the Caribbean at 216. And that mid level trough extending to the tip of Fl seems like it'd keep it out of the Gulf and away from the eastern seaboard. Though by 244 looks like that trough might be breaking down.

Someone with more knowledge care to chime in?

[WxWatcher007]

10 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

Caveat: not that knowledgeable about tropical dynamics.

On the euro: It looks like there's quite a bit of shear present north of the Caribbean at 216. And that mid level trough extending to the tip of Fl seems like it'd keep it out of the Gulf and away from the eastern seaboard. Though by 244 looks like that trough might be breaking down.

Someone with more knowledge care to chime in?

It looks like there’s a strong TC genesis signal suggesting long track potential in the MDR, but honestly, given how the models have struggled so much with the steering pattern for Franklin and now with Idalia’s long term track I don’t put a lot of stock in having any sense of steering for maybe another week. 

[Floydbuster]

TD-11 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose. That means August gave us 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 major Category 4 hurricanes.

Pretty impressive.

[nycwinter]

7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

TD-11 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose. That means August gave us 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 major Category 4 hurricanes.

Pretty impressive.

especially in a el.nino year

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The possibility Idalia might still exist in 10 days making surf for NY/New England is interesting.

[NeffsvilleWx]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It looks like there’s a strong TC genesis signal suggesting long track potential in the MDR, but honestly, given how the models have struggled so much with the steering pattern for Franklin and now with Idalia’s long term track I don’t put a lot of stock in having any sense of steering for maybe another week. 

Aside from the timing (ie - imagine the steering pattern solutions were more reliable) -- is my overall take accurate?