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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


IMO if the precip shield actually makes it up to the NYC area like the 6z GFS suggests, it’s rain unless there’s strong dynamics (UVVs). It’s going to be rate/dynamic cooling dependent. Extremely marginal airmass

It's a classic 'bowling' season system, actually.   Spring incarnate.

I realize it is just Feb 8 ... but it is what it is.  This event is precisely the type referred to by the social-media vernacular, 'bowling season'  

Just a guess ( lol ) but it might annoy any winter enthusiast that needs to play rationalization games.  You know?  hold onto internal narratives that are based on plausibility ( which by definition are seldom facts), rather than having to accept those kind of very valid observational comparisons.   Rubbing it in a little bit ... but this system as described and illustrated in the modeling cinema, it is about 100% likeness to spring cut-off bowling ball.

The N/stream abandoned this thing in the modeling about 4 .. 5 days ago, and no model run I've seen, since, has really demoed any attempt to reintroduce that stream interaction.  It was originally dumping some modest/crucial N/stream reinvigorating dynamics ...roughly near the Dakota longitudes.  Without it, the southern aspects left behind have to be more potent to feed-back on the surrounding and end up a d-drip dose.  haha

Anyway, it seems there is a subtle up-tick in the mechanical detection coming off the Pacific. The observed "slight" model reasons for improved optimism since 12z yesterday has been in tandem with the S/W relay - not sure that is just chance.  Overnight, the ensemble means did bump a little teasingly more W over the W Atl, and also 2 or so mb deeper.    Not enough... The mechanics are now situated within the more physically realized sounding domain over land, so going forward, not sure we are going to get more out of this "correction".   We'll see. 

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