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Jan 28-29th Baroclinic Rider


Chicago Storm
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The NAM remains very different from the other non CAM guidance at 850 mb, with a 1410 m 850 mb low, while other guidance is much weaker with 1440 850 mb heights. This induces stronger 850 mb winds and brings the 850 mb 0 line much farther north. I definitely don't buy the stronger surface trough and the front getting north of Chicago tomorrow night, which is also related to being stronger aloft.

There are times when the NAM is onto something with warm noses and freezing rain threats farther north, but this looks like the model struggling and being too amped with mass fields and gradually correcting. Might be a nugget of truth with the warm nose farther north than some of the globals show, though still think mainly south of I-80 for mixed ptypes.



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40 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The NAM remains very different from the other non CAM guidance at 850 mb, with a 1410 m 850 mb low, while other guidance is much weaker with 1440 850 mb heights. This induces stronger 850 mb winds and brings the 850 mb 0 line much farther north. I definitely don't buy the stronger surface trough and the front getting north of Chicago tomorrow night, which is also related to being stronger aloft.

There are times when the NAM is onto something with warm noses and freezing rain threats farther north, but this looks like the model struggling and being too amped with mass fields and gradually correcting. Might be a nugget of truth with the warm nose farther north than some of the globals show, though still think mainly south of I-80 for mixed ptypes.


 

You think you guys may need to increase the ice threat a little in central to southern cwa?  Current output would suggest maybe a tenth of accretion being possible in some areas.

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

 This is what I get for complimenting the models on performing so well with the January 25th snowstorm. For an event that's one day away I have literally no idea what's going to happen here.

 

 

I agree the sun shined on the dogs ass that time. But that’s what makes this fun :D

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