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Jan 28-29th Baroclinic Rider


Chicago Storm
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These things tend to have over achieving temps south of the low track. Wherever the wind manages to go SW, there will probably be a mini torch. These can be frustrating in the spring when it’s 70F south of the front and 40F with rain and fog north of it. Thankfully, it’s January so I’d rather be on the cold side of it. 

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37 minutes ago, roardog said:

These things tend to have over achieving temps south of the low track. Wherever the wind manages to go SW, there will probably be a mini torch. These can be frustrating in the spring when it’s 70F south of the front and 40F with rain and fog north of it. Thankfully, it’s January so I’d rather be on the cold side of it. 

Could definitely envision temps overperforming south of front, especially if cloud cover isn't too thick but perhaps even in that case as well.  Won't be precipitating south of the front during much of the day and there's not that much snow cover to melt.

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If the other guidance stays relatively similar, it shows how unreliable the NAM is. I can recall it doing exactly this sort of thing in similar setups at around this range that went on to produce solid accumulating snow in the area. Having this sort of jump muddies the water forecast wise.

Re. the HRRR, it probably shouldn't be used for winter forecasting beyond 24 hours, and 24 hours out is still a stretch. The HRRR is most useful for near term trends, within about 12 hours, maybe as much as 18 hours.





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11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If the other guidance stays relatively similar, it shows how unreliable the NAM is. I can recall it doing exactly this sort of thing in similar setups at around this range that went on to produce solid accumulating snow in the area. Having this sort of jump muddies the water forecast wise.

Re. the HRRR, it probably shouldn't be used for winter forecasting beyond 24 hours, and 24 hours out is still a stretch. The HRRR is most useful for near term trends, within about 12 hours, maybe as much as 18 hours.




 

It’s had the weeble-wobbles for sure 

trend-nam-2023012700-f066.snku_acc-imp.us_mw.gif

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I feel like anecdotally, the warm front/surge seems to get held up quite often along I-80/southern tip of Lake Michigan. Wouldn’t surprise me if that’s a big demarcation line. (Zero meteorological reasoning behind this thought, fyi)

Yes it does.  And with a shearing system/lack of a stronger surface low, I really can't see the 00z NAM positioning coming to fruition.  In fact I'd almost bet money against it and would favor something farther south.

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