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Jan 28-29th Baroclinic Rider


Chicago Storm
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21 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

I'm on the edge of either adding an inch or two of snow or losing an inch or two of snow before the arctic air moves in next week. Pretty neat.

Models stayed steady and the forecast was dead on for January 25th snowstorm, and i said afterward this was well forecast and played out as expected. So I'm sure we will be back to our regularly scheduled model mayhem for the next event. And we are.

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5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I can buy a miss north in this set up, but I don’t buy strengthening SLP leading to rain along I80

Yeah, everything showing this thing shearing out and the NAM wanting to pump it up. I think RC mentioned the same thing earlier as well. 

 

Looks like a blanket WWA for 3-6 across N IL and S WI

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34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

All things considered, it seems reasonable enough.  Tricky call for them, but at some point you have to make one.  Can't punt forever.  

unfortunately, i have seen how these bands play out historically here. But obv rooting for the southern outcome. 

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Compromise solution on models would put the freezing rain band right through here.  Ice amounts should be fairly light wherever it ends up, but modest precip rates and a warm layer aloft that isn't super warm likely means rather efficient accretion of whatever does fall.

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