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Jan 28-29th Baroclinic Rider


Chicago Storm
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5” storm total seems doable here with the fronto band lifting into WI this afternoon before things fill back in into the evening. Bring it. 

Best potential looks to be along the lake between here and Port Washington. Racine or MKE could hit double digits. Good luck all.

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13 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

It's funny how a given model can be perfect on one storm and terrible on the next

The heaviest accumulations WILL ride along hwy 20 and north in Iowa, but it’s like the NAM didn’t see this WAA wing cruising through the rest of Iowa and into the Quad Cities area/Peoria/Bloomington. Although it is lifting north pretty darn quick.

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I think the models also were too slow to saturate with southward extent. The fact that the lead band already is 25-30+ dBZ down in ILX CWA could very well be a sign of things setting up a bit south later on. But even if the band is progressive, should be a nice burst of snow moving through later this morning into early to mid afternoon.

Definitely liking this evening too if the main band sets up northern tier and north during the afternoon.

And finally, the NAM indeed was out to lunch haha. I'd still hedge a bit south of where the HRRR is putting the zone of freezing rain this evening.

Expecting the advisory to be expanded south with the mid-late morning update and also the day shift will assess whether any part of northern Illinois in the WWA needs to be upgraded to a WSW.



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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

I think the models also were too slow to saturate with southward extent. The fact that the lead band already is 25-30+ dBZ down in ILX CWA could very well be a sign of things setting up a bit south later on. But even if the band is progressive, should be a nice burst of snow moving through later this morning into early to mid afternoon.

Definitely liking this evening too if the main band sets up northern tier and north during the afternoon.

And finally, the NAM indeed was out to lunch haha. I'd still hedge a bit south of where the HRRR is putting the zone of freezing rain this evening.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

NAM has been playing catch-up and moving south every run since its Green Bay special yesterday.
 

Excited for the potential, and we are basically getting to nowcast time. 

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This band of snow pushing through Cedar Rapids this morning is not even moderate.  The flakes are fairly small and the rate is meh.  I just measured 0.8" and radar shows the back edge approaching quickly.  

:yikes:
Yeah, Iowa roads look to be moving well. 

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5 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Would it be more prudent to look at 10:1 maps or Kuchera maps?

I usually just try to guess the ratio and calculate it on my own.  I'm banking on 13:1 ratios, or perhaps better which should fluff our 0.2-0.25 of precip into the 2.5-3" range for snow.  I'm guessing ratios in the main swath further north near the IL/WI border may be 15:1 or better.

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