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Jan 28-29th Baroclinic Rider


Chicago Storm
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10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Dtw looks to miss out on the first bands, but could be in for a surprise for the second batch. Looks like after this, gonna be in a cold suppression pattern, the worst. While dec/jan sucked, atleast it was warmer. Cold n dry is the worst. 

That’s currently how I’m feeling. It’s why I laughed when I seen DTX mention rain along and south of 94. I’d be more then happy with 2-4 additional on top of current snow pack. 

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Chicago NWS upped amounts for the northern tier but still under WWA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1049 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

ILZ003>006-290100-
/O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230129T0900Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake,
Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove,
Mundelein, and Gurnee
1049 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Accumulating snow, heavy at times, and hazardous travel
  expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.
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GRR went into a lot of technical detail last discussion...  I feel like I'm probably the only one who appreciates this stuff though.

Quote
HRRR profiles across the forecast area show transient conditional
instability for elevated parcels this evening/tonight. Even in the
absence of conditional instability, guidance shows small positive
values of geostrophic EPV at saturation (EPVg*), indicating weak
moist symmetric stability. These environmental considerations
suggest that mesoscale ascent arising from frontogenesis may be
occasionally robust, and that brief, locally enhanced precip/snowfall
rates may occur.

Additionally, HRRR profiles at several locations (e.g., MKG, GRR,
LAN, RQB, and MOP) show a period of deep, saturated, and
approximately isothermal profiles at temps warmer than -10C. This
favors ice-crystal growth via aggregation (yielding fluffy clumps of
flakes) and supports higher SLRs (15-18:1). However, if strong
ascent beneath the DGZ occurs within any convective elements,
appreciable riming/accretion may result (yielding snow
pellets/graupel), with reduced SLRs during those periods.

I think this is the kind of setting where you can get rapid changes between small grainy flakes and freezing drizzle and huge wet flakes depending on how strong the upward motion is locally.  Forecasting accumulations can be hard.

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3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think the models also were too slow to saturate with southward extent. The fact that the lead band already is 25-30+ dBZ down in ILX CWA could very well be a sign of things setting up a bit south later on. But even if the band is progressive, should be a nice burst of snow moving through later this morning into early to mid afternoon.

Definitely liking this evening too if the main band sets up northern tier and north during the afternoon.

And finally, the NAM indeed was out to lunch haha. I'd still hedge a bit south of where the HRRR is putting the zone of freezing rain this evening.

Expecting the advisory to be expanded south with the mid-late morning update and also the day shift will assess whether any part of northern Illinois in the WWA needs to be upgraded to a WSW.


 

HRRR has been creeping south since you posted that.  I'm more interested in the ice since the snow is going to be a non-event locally.  Best ice zone could end up just to my south, but it should be close. 

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13 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Riding a razors edge in terms of southern extent here, but these higher returns are good

Going to be interesting if the cutoff is near us. Might get 6"+ while the metro gets much less. Oof more like Northern burbs into Lake county get it good while central Cook and South are unlucky. 

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Just now, madwx said:

just a couple tenths so far.  Heavier rates knocking at the door so we'll see if things pick up

Wonder if this is going to be one of those situations where the Beltline and points south end up with substantially more snow than the official airport total.

Big pileup in Rock County yesterday attributed to white-out conditions from clipper squall, although to my knowledge no SSW ever issued.

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