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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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17 hours ago, stormtracker said:

This is it.  If we're not tracking a winter storm before page 60, we've all failed as a forum and as human beings. 

You WILL. This Forum is already an outstanding SUCCESS and all of you are the finest human beings that ever lived! The Mid Atlantic stands a damn good chance of getting #FebuBuried!

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I think we will have a window around Feb 7-21 for wintery conditions. The year started off with a colder than normal Russia/Siberia. Flagstaff and that area has now seen 3 snowstorm hits, and Japan according to this is about to get record cold (such an extreme anomaly doesn't usually happen there).

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The theme continues to be 35-50N, with 45N more consistent for cold/shots. It hasn't hit the Mid Atlantic yet, but it has hit 3 other areas around the same latitude this year. 

(I made a note of this before)

 

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13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure when I’ve ever seen a model show chance after chance like the gfs just did. There’s real potentially there. I’d even say potential for a remarkable run. Wave after wave rolling to our south with cold available 

Still have to shake this -PNA tendency. I say ~Feb7-8-> we start getting hit. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro drops a legit lope of the TPV into the Great Lakes / Northeast the first weekend of February. Get 850 temps to almost -25 over the entire LWX CWA. 

That’s not good. Say hello to wind and partly cloudy. And miserable

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On 1/8/2023 at 3:38 PM, Cobalt said:

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

So it looks like delayed, not denied on this tanking of the EPO, which begins close to the 25th, but peaks near the 27th-28th (so entering the short range). 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_norm_anom-4864000.thumb.png.f912890badcb65f14cfad2ca88e7d340.png

Impressive poleward ridging too. In fact, the Euro is so extensive with this ridging that it ends up intruding the AO domain near the end of the run, which is in clown range but has some decent ensemble support. Now I guess the question would be whether this EPO tank does what the previous two did not, which is produce snow potential in our area. Both the November 13th-20th and December 20th-27th periods saw average temperatures ~9-14F below average for all of the Mid Atlantic region, but the few events that took place during those stretches put us into the warmer sector of those systems. Hopeful that prime climo and that stout PV lobe can help get us on the board. I also recall reading that extreme November -EPO events were correlated with high latitude blocking returning later in the winter, so maybe we will see a return of that some time in mid-late February. 

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Not necessarily. I'd say it's more likely we get cold for a few days, then the next 1000mb Low that arrives will bully a 1058 High out of southeastern Quebec and we'll end up with cold rain.

Truth but at least Ji can make another thread

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4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

this thread sure is quiet for prime climo.......  not much optimism for early February?

GFS and Euro suggest a coastal forms for 2/3-2/4. Too far out to buy in but first time I've seen them both suggest it. I think I am most hopeful for this 2/1-2/5 time period but just waiting to see more support. 

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Impressively cold look on the 12z EPS into the first week of Feb. No clear signal for precip at any given point yet, but overall suggestive of multiple chances with the boundary in a favorable spot.

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Haven’t seen that look coast to coast in long time. 

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