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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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Just wanted to say your analysis of the look is spot on. It’s a very good look. But my pessimism is that based on trends lately I suspect the TPV displacement will be less severe (we’ve been head faked twice this year so far with that) and if we see any degradation of that feature the SE ridge will end up a lot worse. That’s been a repetitive error in the long range. So if we do get the looks you’re citing I think we do have a great chance. I just am skeptical and feel the most likely adjustments will make the reality not quite as favorable as it looks now. But that’s just me injecting a gut feeling not any guidance. 

I think that period Cape posting is probably the wave that ushers in the cold and gets the lower heights over E/SE Canada. Hope I’m wrong, but either way if things hold maybe a solid window Feb 4/5-10


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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just wanted to say your analysis of the look is spot on. It’s a very good look. But my pessimism is that based on trends lately I suspect the TPV displacement will be less severe (we’ve been head faked twice this year so far with that) and if we see any degradation of that feature the SE ridge will end up a lot worse. That’s been a repetitive error in the long range. So if we do get the looks you’re citing I think we do have a great chance. I just am skeptical and feel the most likely adjustments will make the reality not quite as favorable as it looks now. But that’s just me injecting a gut feeling not any guidance. 

We have seen plenty of head fakes no doubt. Worst that can happen is more of the same. Let's be positive. Glass half full here. Your 'goal' at this point should be getting 20"+ or something like that. We have all of Feb and March, and the prospects for late Feb into March look pretty decent. I will be happy with whatever I get here. A foot would be amazing.

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OP run, but eventually we get the PV north of us, this would be a more “workable” pattern rolling forward for any energy that will cut underbeath
ef2a7df0f9e959087aa545ca4dafe236.jpg


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Cold air source to our north with an active jet to our south…. Just in time for February 5th-10th. 2010 Redux anyone?!


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2B2F5D27-AC40-4CEB-AABB-28C4F7FEA89E.thumb.png.9f5d0cbb2a33ae74166ddc190d83fa54.png

For future reference purposes I wanted to post the day 2-7 mean above. That’s remarkably close to what was being advertised at day 15. The pattern didn’t fail. But a -epo full latitude N amer trough pattern isn’t a good one for snow here. Never has been.  It can work but usually only if we have either a displaced PV into southeast Canada (that’s the hope dat 10-15) or a -NAO with a 50/50.  

Without either of those the SE ridge will resume the minute there is any return flow if approaching wave.  We need warm air pressing at cold.  That doesn’t work if there isn’t a mechanism for the cold to resist.  Otherwise we’re left praying to thread the needle and just get lucky with perfect timing and track of some boundary wave which is how we’ve been getting most of our snow the last 7 years but that’s why we’ve had so little!  
 

To get a truly snowy period (not talking a whole season I’d be thrilled with a snowy 10 day period with 2-3 events) we really need a pattern with some mechanism to resist the SE ridge.  A tpv in eastern Canada would do it.  A 50/50.  Blocking historically is the best way but lately that’s failed a lot because there wasn’t enough cold in N Amer to get the typical response in the mid latitudes.  I’d like to see that later in the season though when there is a colder profile to start.  I still think that’s our best chance at getting more than just one lucky fluke.  


 

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We have seen plenty of head fakes no doubt. Worst that can happen is more of the same. Let's be positive. Glass half full here. Your 'goal' at this point should be getting 20"+ or something like that. We have all of Feb and March, and the prospects for late Feb into March look pretty decent. I will be happy with whatever I get here. A foot would be amazing.

I would be thrilled if I got 20” the rest of the way. 

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Just a little tidbit. If BWI does go the rest of January without recording a trace, it will be the first time ever with a clean 0 in the snow department heading into February.  From the factory of useless knowledge lol. 

They've done a trace going into February before, but never 0. 

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1 hour ago, Heisy said:


I think that period Cape posting is probably the wave that ushers in the cold and gets the lower heights over E/SE Canada. Hope I’m wrong, but either way if things hold maybe a solid window Feb 4/5-10


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Might be how it works out. The very end of Jan to Feb 2nd is probably the earliest for something. In general the 2nd through the 8th or so is probably the best window. GEFS is more bullish early, but the CMC ens is pretty close. EPS(0z) not as much. The overall period might be longer if the NAO cooperates a little more than guidance is currently depicting.

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10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

EPS improvements vs 00z

236b85ff82b52ce376f369a2f3f09462.gif


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That's a pretty big switch over one run for an ensemble mean (though it's happened before).  Clearly the 12Z EPS has backed away from dumping the trough almost completely into the southwest US and the Pacific.

(ETA:  How did the Euro ops run look, offhand?  Just curious.  Didn't see anything of that posted in here.)

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2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That's a pretty big switch over one run for an ensemble mean (though it's happened before).  Clearly the 12Z EPS has backed away from dumping the trough almost completely into the southwest US and the Pacific.

Big shift because the aleutian ridge jumped way east, becoming a poleward alaskan ridge. Just one run for now, so we shall see if this becomes a real trend. 

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Big shift because the aleutian ridge jumped way east, becoming a poleward alaskan ridge. Just one run for now, so we shall see if this becomes a real trend. 

True.  It was a big shift for an ensemble in one cycle.  I guess it's all perspective...either the ridge is farther east or the downstream trough isn't digging out into the southwest/Pacific forcing the ridge too far west.

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

New month same theme.  It’s not cold enough at our latitude.  The deep cold never pushes through and the SER lingers to make sure it has no chance.  

Be happy that there has been multiple times over the years that we have woken up to find that the pattern that was considered to be locked in magically changed. Our time is coming. Besides February has been a good month for MA snowstorms.

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3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It just keeps getting pushed back, first it was after the midweek cutter that things looked to improve and now its past February 5th. 

Been away for a bit....what happened to the Ji storm for midweek? Many were suggesting this was the best setup of the entire season so far? We still on for that one?

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42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Been away for a bit....what happened to the Ji storm for midweek? Many were suggesting this was the best setup of the entire season so far? We still on for that one?

For now that appears to be a clipper swinging by on the 28th. 

I’m about to pull the trigger on a trip to Deep Creek next weekend. Looks like some upslope there late week. 

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