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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Haven’t seen that look coast to coast in long time. 

It’s annoyingly 9-10 days away again, but it seems sorta inevitable that we get a respectable arctic blast in early February during Eric Webb’s triple fire emoji Niña Feb torch. Question is whether it’s December all over where it comes in behind a rain event and is bullied out of here by some POS 1012mb low in Tennessee like @mattie g suggested. But either way, we need some cold air nearby to have a chance, so hopefully we get something to work out before Webb’s blowtorch is delayed not denied.

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44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Impressively cold look on the 12z EPS into the first week of Feb. No clear signal for precip at any given point yet, but overall suggestive of multiple chances with the boundary in a favorable spot.

1675771200-p2eR9HZFyKA.png

1675771200-LeN09GzP6Mw.png

The last 2 times a TPV displacement teased then failed us it fell apart around day 7-8. The initial TPV split happens tomorrow. That’s a lock. But what really does the trick for us is around day 7 as the tpv attempts to consolidate the wave breaking from the EPO and WAR splits it a second time!  That weakens it enough to allow it to be bullied south. If that fails this all falls apart again. I’m about 24 hours from feeling confident it’s real. Guidance has been remarkably good inside 7 days with key features.  If the big 3 hold through 0z Wed I think we can start worrying about specifics not whether the whole pattern fails.  Then of course we worry about the details we still would need luck with. 

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